There was some brief optimism about Manchester City of late. Ok, wins over Plymouth Argyle and a Tottenham team that has waved the white flag on the Premier League isn't that much of a beachhead. But it was something after getting pantsed by Arsenal, Real Madrid, and Liverpool. When a team gets so aggressively DJ Jazzy Jeff'd out of the penthouse, they'll settle for rooting out a spot on the couch in the next condo down and hoping no one notices their squatting.
Those good vibes evaporated on Saturday, as Nottingham Forest nullified their attack as easily as Liverpool and Arsenal did (0.86 xG). When Forest decided to counter, they found it pretty simple. It's been the familiar formula for opponents against City this season. Teams have found they can keep them out without too much struggle, and when they accomplish that, they can sprint by them on the counterattack with striking ease.
The 1-0 loss leaves City in fifth, which is the last spot, likely, for next year's Champions League for Premier League clubs. There are five teams behind them within five points, which means even holding onto the fifth spot is like a scene out of Cliffhanger (it was an action movie for old people way back when on a mountain with Sly Stallone. Sly Stallone was an action star for old people).
Is it possible that the team that laughed at the Premier League for the past four years could slip out of Europe's top competition altogether? Could we see Pep doing Pep things on Thursday nights, the "free before 9" of European football?
How far will Manchester City fall before the Premier League season ends?
The schedule isn't a total bear, but it's not a complete waltz, either. City are done playing the four teams above them currently. That actually may have been a boon, though, as come the middle of April and beyond, both Arsenal and Liverpool may have shifted to second or third gear in the league with so little stakes for them.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, they do get games against Southampton, Leicester, and Wolves, three of the bottom four. Everton is also left, and with their safety basically assured and anything more out of reach, maybe they'll get a look at an already-vacationing Toffees.
City don't get as many looks at their direct competitors for fourth or fifth as they might like. They have dates with Bournemouth, Brighton, Fulham, and Aston Villa. But is that a good thing? Brighton are the hottest team in the league right now, have already beaten City once, and they're up next weekend. Bournemouth are getting healthy and have also beaten City once this season. At least for City, they'll get both of them at home. Same goes for Villa at the end of April. Will Fulham still be in the chase on the last day of the season?
Aside from that, City do have to traipse across town to play United, and as bonkers and wayward as United have been all season, they've taken points off Arsenal, Liverpool, and City themselves. They do seem to have an ability to bring the best teams down to their level for 90 minutes, if only out of sheer confusion and boredom. They also have to play Crystal Palace, who just happened to have won eight of their last 10.
You can confidently say that City will probably beat the three of the bottom four. Let's say they get four out of the six points against Everton and United, who don't have much to play for other than being sneaky little snots. Let's put them over Palace because it's at home, and taking eight of the 12 against their direct competitors for the Champions League spots. That's 24 points, putting them at 71. That was good enough for fourth last season and fifth the season before that.
Except that's 10 points better than they're currently on pace for. That run-in sketched out above is giving them certainly the best of it. We know that City struggle against teams that defend really well, which puts the games against Everton, United (against the big teams at least, somehow), Fulham, and Palace into real jeopardy. We know that they don't deal with teams that counter well, which is Bournemouth and Palace. There's a world where City could fail to beat any of their direct competitors, even at home, and spit up at Old Trafford, Goodison Park, and end up with 9-12 points to finish out. That won't be enough.
It could be a very dicey finish for City. Oh, and there's also a verdict to come in that might have a say in this, too.