Cowboys path to the playoffs after Thanksgiving Day win: Turkey isn't cooked

This time last week, the Dallas Cowboys had been left for dead, losers of five games in a row and an afterthought in NFC East standings at 3-7. What little suspense there was left in the team's season came from wondering whether Jerry Jones would be able to pick his head up out of the sand for long enough to actually fire head coach Mike McCarthy — making the playoffs was the furthest thing from everyone's mind.

There's still a long, long way to go. This remains a flawed roster in critical ways, and Dak Prescott isn't suiting up again in 2024. But ... well, don't count out the Cowboys just yet: After a complete, commanding win over the New York Giants on Thanksgiving day, Dallas has won two in a row over divisional rivals, and suddenly they're within shouting distance of the NFC Wild Card race. But how much should Cowboys fans really allow themselves to believe? Is there an actual path to the playoffs, or was the hole too deep to climb out of? Let's break it down.

Cowboys closing schedule features plenty of winnable games

To be clear, Dallas is still the long shot of all long shots: According to The Athletic's model, the Cowboys' odds of making the playoffs even after the win over the Giants sit at under one percent — tied for 24th in the league, even with the likes of the Chicago Bears, New York Jets and Cleveland Browns and just below the Tennessee Titans. But with a relatively favorable closing schedule, you can at least see the path forward.

Dallas will play its next three games at home, and all of them seem like ones the team could reasonably win: The Cowboys welcome Joe Burrow and the Bengals to town on Dec. 9 before wrapping up the NFC South portion of their schedule with the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in back-to-back weeks. Of course, all of those games are also ones that Dallas could lose; Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and the gang need no introduction, Baker Mayfield is always dangerous and even Bryce Young looks much improved upon his return to the starting QB job in Carolina.

But all three of those teams have their flaws, and none seem to feature the sort of offense that can exploit this Dallas defense's weaknesses. From there, the Cowboys close with a pair of difficult divisional games that could define their season, traveling to Philadelphia to face the Eagles before welcoming the Washington Commanders to town. Given that Dallas just went into FedEx Field and beat Jayden Daniels a few days ago, a 4-1 finish to the season isn't out of the question — and that could well be enough to sneak into the seventh seed, especially considering that it would include wins over two teams (the Commanders and Bucs) who are currently ahead of the Cowboys in the Wild Card pecking order.

How Cowboys can still earn an NFC Wild Card spot

Here's how the race currently stacks up:

7. Washington Commanders (7-5)
8. Arizona Cardinals (6-5)
9. Tampa Bay Bucs (5-6)
10. Los Angeles Rams (5-6)
11. San Francisco 49ers (5-6)
12. Dallas Cowboys (5-7)

The Commanders are in the midst of a classic Kliff Kingsbury swoon. The Rams just got pasted by the Eagles on Monday night, while the Niners can't keep their stars healthy and are at risk of being sent into a tailspin. A 4-1 finish would put Dallas at 9-8 to end the year, and is it really too far-fetched to think that it could be enough to sneak in? All the Cowboys would need is a 2-3 finish from Washington and a 3-3 finish from the Cardinals, not a ton of help all things considered.

Of course, 4-1 is probably asking a lot for a team with Cooper Rush playing behind this banged-up offensive line, and a win over the Giants isn't saying a whole lot. But a win against Cincinnati next week could make things very, very interesting.