Can Cowboys make the playoffs? Week 14 win would double their chances, sort of

Uncertainty has lingered over the Dallas Cowboys ever since their 2023 campaign came to an abrupt halt in the NFC Wild Card Round.

Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy is on the last year of his contract, but team owner Jerry Jones decided not to extend the deal during the offseason. The reasoning is fairly simple: McCarthy’s two playoff losses in the past three seasons outweigh his 36 regular season wins during that span.

Entering 2024, McCarthy led the Cowboys to three consecutive 12-win seasons, but his future in Dallas largely hinged on whether he could produce success in the playoffs. It’s hard to find postseason success without a playoff appearance, however. The Cowboys have not had the season they hoped, and their early struggles only worsened when quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending injury in Week 9.

No one expects Dallas to make a playoff appearance this season, but they have not yet been eliminated from contention. The Cowboys have an opportunity to improve to a 6-7 record against the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football.

Cowboys aren’t eliminated from playoff contention — yet

Dallas currently has a 2 percent playoff probability, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That small glimmer of hope would double to 4 percent with a win against Cincinnati.

Although they are unlikely to win the NFC East this season, they still have a chance to steal a NFC Wild Card spot from the Washington Commanders. Dallas has stabilized a bit with backup quarterback Cooper Rush. They snapped a five-game losing streak to win two consecutive games, including a 34-26 upset over the Commanders in Week 12, which gives them the head-to-head tiebreaker. 

Washington began the season with a 7-2 record, but they’ve lost three of their previous four games. They currently hold an 8-5 record, which gives Dallas an opportunity to overtake them with a win in their Week 18 matchup. For that to happen, the Cowboys would need to win all four of their games before then, while Washington would need to lose one of their next three games. Even then, however, it’s unlikely — three teams in the NFC West and the Atlanta Falcons, who all remain ahead of Dallas for seeding, would need to lose multiple games over the next four weeks.

But even if the Cowboys somehow made it, they’d likely be staring at a quick exit. After all, McCarthy’s 18-year head coaching career has been marred by postseason disappointment. 

Dating back to his time with the Green Bay Packers, McCarthy has produced stellar results only to fall flat in the playoffs. In his 13 years as head coach in Green Bay, McCarthy — alongside future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers — produced eight seasons with double-digit wins. Yet, they failed to win two or more playoff games in seven postseason runs, including three postseason appearances with first-round exits.