When the Chicago Cubs officially whiffed on Alex Bregman, the expectation was that Matt Shaw was going to have a golden opportunity to be the team's Opening Day third baseman. The Cubs don't really have a viable alternative on their roster, and he's considered one of the best prospects in baseball.
He might not have any MLB experience, but Shaw steamrolled his way through four Minor League levels after being selected in the first round of the 2023 MLB Draft and had an eye-popping .929 OPS in his 35 games at Triple-A. His bat certainly felt MLB-ready; all Shaw seemingly had to do this spring was prove it. Had he done that, he likely would've made the team's Opening Day roster.
Unfortunately, Shaw suffered an oblique strain before spring training games even began, and he's yet to appear in game action. It goes without saying that without any spring training games under his belt, Shaw's chances of making the team's Opening Day roster are virtually zero.
For most teams, that wouldn't be a problem with still roughly a month to go before Opening Day. But the Cubs are one of two exceptions: Chicago will face off against the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers in the Tokyo Series, which is set to take place on March 18 and 19 — over one week before the 28 other teams begin their regular-season schedules. The Cubs having an early start to their regular season will almost certainly impact Shaw's ability to be with the big league team for Opening Day.
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Cubs Japan Series impact Matt Shaw's chances of making Opening Day roster
The Japan Series is 20 days away as of this writing, and Shaw has not appeared in any Cactus League games. It's anyone's best guess as to when he'll be ready to appear in a spring training game. If Shaw was some proven MLB star, he might not need as much ramp-up time in spring training, but again, he does not have a single game of MLB experience under his belt.
As Matthew Trueblood of North Side Baseball wrote, "At some point, the calendar math just doesn't work." It'd be ideal to have Shaw open the season as the team's starting third baseman, and had the Cubs begun their season on the same day as 28 other teams, he might have been. Unfortunately, their schedule has them starting earlier than normal. It's unrealistic to expect Shaw to be ready in 20 days to play in games that count against the defending World Series winners when he has yet to appear in a spring training contest.
While this is a frustrating blow, Shaw might very well be ready when the Cubs begin their regular season state-side. It would've been nice to have had him for those two Tokyo Series games, but having him for the other 160 regular season contests (and hopefully more in the postseason) is far more crucial for Chicago.