Cubs Opening Day roster, doomsday edition: 3 mistakes Jed Hoyer can't afford to make

We are just over one week away from Spring Training games taking place in Arizona and Florida. The Chicago Cubs were the first team to report to camp, and with them, comes and improved roster from a season ago. Although the team is currently the favorite to win the NL Central, there are still moves that can be made to increase their projected win total. On the other hand, there are clear mistakes the Cubs need to avoid.

3. Current bench options aren't a feasible segue to Matt Shaw

If the Cubs add Alex Bregman to the mix, he is locked in as you're starting third baseman. If they fail to do so, top prospect Matt Shaw will get a long look at the hot corner, where he could benefit from an established veteran who can show him the ropes at the major league level. As things sit, the Cubs have both Vidal Brujan and Jon Berti, with the latter projected to win a bench job. Either way, I don't feel comfortable putting them anywhere near Shaw's development.

The fact is, Bregman takes this team to that 90-win plateau that the Cubs seem to be chasing. However, if Shaw has anywhere near the same stratosphere type of a rookie campaign that someone like Jackson Merrill did, the odds that they come close to that number are likely.

The gamble is rolling the dice and Shaw working out when you know you're locking in production with Bregman. Still, Shaw needs someone like Justin Turner, who would be the perfect fit for this team on a one-year deal to do just that. If you miss on Bregman, get the next best thing.

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2. Breaking camp with Julian Merryweather

Julian Merryweather is out of options, and therefore many have penciled him in to be a lock for the bullpen already. I disagree. He should earn his spot just like any of the other pitchers in this organization. In 2023, Merryweather posted a 3.38 ERA and backed those numbers up with a strong FIP. However, 2023 is now sandwiched in between two awful seasons where he recorded ERA's of 6.75 in 2022, and 6.60 in 2024.

In Merryweather's five seasons at the MLB level, he has recorded north of 30 innings just one time in 2023. Studying the numbers, he looks more like a DFA candidate than a lock for the OD roster. This is one of those situations where just because you're going to lose a guy if he doesn't break camp with the team, doesn't mean you should allow your team to not be as good on paper as possible.

1. Get David Robertson if you miss on Bregman

If the Cubs don't land Bregman, their primary focus should be someone like Justin Turner, David Robertson, or preferably, both. Robertson has been highly effective throughout his career and shows no signs of slowing down. Assuming he cost around $12 million, landing him should be priority #1 on a Bregmanless Cubs roster. Rounding out the bullpen with Robertson gives Chicago a tip-top relief group consisting of him, Ryan Pressly, Ryan Brasier, Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, and others.

Its commendable the Cubs want to pack another punch to their lineup in Bregman, but not spending those dollars elsewhere after having a willingness to do so will have Cubs fans up in arms. It would be interesting to see what the Cubs can do at the trade deadline with ample money available, but there should at least be a balance of spend a little more now, and save enough to catapult forward for a playoff push at the deadline.

Opening Day roster projection:

The lineup and bench have better upside than we've seen since the Cubs scrapped their World Series team in 2021. Primarily due to the addition of Kyle Tucker, the Cubs will look to have their first 30/100 guy since Javier Baez in 2018.

This is the route I would go if I were Craig Counsell, and I don't have the luxury of penciling Bregman into my lineup. I've seen the projected lineups with Happ at the top and Hoerner around the sixth spot, but I love Hoerner's upside as he enters his prime. His on-base percentage and speed at the top are valuable, and Happ, right after him, sets the table for Tucker.

As for the starting rotation, Javier Assad's recent oblique strain on the first day of camp complicates things. It's been reported he's only dealing with a mild oblique strain, but due to underperforming toward the end of 2024, I'm not sold on him in the starting rotation until I see him bounce back in Spring Training. I can see the Cubs using an option on him to work out some kinks, but it wouldn't be long before he's back.

That likely slides Colin Rea into the rotation. I can't wait to see what Ben Brown can do this season. He, however, hasn't faced live hitters in a real game in quite some time, so I'm perfectly happy to be optioning him to begin the year as well.

As stated above, if the Cubs miss on Bregman, I would applaud Jed Hoyer and the Cubs if they allocated those funds elsewhere. I mentioned Justin Turner above, but if I had to pick one or the other, I'd sign Robertson to form an elite bullpen. In reality, they should get both, and be willing to go over the luxury tax midseason if they are in position to push for the playoffs.

Keegan Thompson and Julien Merryweather are out of options. They must be cut or traded if they don't make the Opening Day roster. I'm taking the latter and getting what I can for both. This team needs roster spots to develop its younger arms, such as Brown, Jordan Wicks, and hopefully Cade Horton.

Assad potentially missing time helps alleviate some of the log jam amongst the group of pitchers. Still, Morgan, Pearson, Miller, Hodge, Brasier, Robertson, and Pressly are a better group than forcing Thompson and Merryweather in there just because they have nowhere to go.

I am a little more gunshy on pulling the trigger for a Thompson move; he had a good 2024, but his FIP of 3.86 and xERA of 4.46 suggest being the beneficiary of good luck and signals regression on the way, which fall much more in line with his career 3.79 ERA before the 2024 campaign. Still, those aren't awful numbers. It's a tough call when you have other arms that could all be more productive.

One note on Nate Pearson: the team has mentioned they may stretch him out to either a starter or bulk reliever, so with this projected bullpen, they still have somebody to do just that. He shouldn't need to head to Iowa to begin the year if he can ramp up to 3-4 innings in Spring Training. Of course, this whole list changes if they do land Bregman, but until they do, this is the route I'd want to see the Cubs go. Prioritize production.