Cubs should skip out on Pete Alonso in favor of another Mets free agent

The Chicago Cubs are expected to pursue several potential upgrades this offseason, but it's unclear how aggressively Jed Hoyer and the front office will operate. Their midseason trade for All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes came as a great shock, but the Cubs still don't traditionally shell out top dollar in free agency.

After consecutive 83-win campaigns, there is real pressure on the Cubs to finally crack the postseason in a winnable NL Central. For all the hand-wringing about Chicago's potential expenses in free agency, Craig Counsell inked the largest managerial contract in MLB history last winter. He didn't receive all that money to toil in mediocrity. There is an expectation that the Cubs will eventually start winning in October.

Juan Soto and the free agent heavyweights are too expensive for Chicago, but those second-tier stars, such as Pete Alonso, could hold appeal for a Cubs team desperate to improve. The Cubs' offense has been a bit anemic in recent years. On paper, Alonso is the exact sort of power threat that is presently missing from Counsell's lineup. He finished last season with 34 home runs and 88 RBI, slashing .240/.329/.459 with a 2.6 WAR and 123 OPS+.

That said, there are potential red flags in Alonso's profile, and he's not the only former New York Mets star who addresses a clear need in Chicago. Perhaps Jed Hoyer should look prioritize one of Alonso's teammates.

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Cubs should target Sean Manaea over Pete Alonso in MLB free agency

Sean Manaea was electric after the All-Star break for the Mets. He finished the regular season with a 3.47 ERA and 1.08 WHIP across 32 starts, netting 184 strikeouts in 181.2 innings pitched. He was the best ace for a deep, dependable Mets rotation, kicking his game up a notch in the playoffs. He fell apart in a critical NLCS Game 6 against the Dodgers, but New York doesn't resoundingly eliminate Milwaukee or Philadelphia without Manaea's efforts.

That valuable October experience, combined with workhorse ability in the regular season, makes Manaea a highly desirable free agent target — especially when viewed in the broader context of the marketplace. Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried are about to receive stupid amounts of money. The entire MLB will put their plans on hold to court Japanese fireballer Roki Sasaki on a minor-league contract. Manaea is going to fall by the wayside a bit and end up on a great value contract. He's 32 years old, but he should have at least a few seasons of quality work left in the tank.

Alonso is great, but for every torrid stretch of slugging (as we saw during the Mets' postseason run), we get a prolonged cold spell. This was a deeply frustrating regular season for Alonso, who never really lived up to his All-Star bidding. He's beloved in Queens and his postseason fireworks were enough to forgive a mixed regular season. But, the long-term indicators aren't great. First basemen don't tend to age well, especially not on hefty contracts, and Alonso is coming off the worst season of his career in terms of OPS (.788). That continues a downward spiral that began in 2022.

The Cubs would benefit from a more stable and sustainable slugger in the middle of their lineup. Also of note is Michael Busch's strong rookie campaign. Chicago has a 27-year-old on the upswing at first base. He's probably already their best hitter, or close to it, depending on which version of Cody Bellinger shows up next season. Alonso just isn't the best use of resources.

Manaea, on the other hand, gives the Cubs more depth behind Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele in the rotation. The quickest path to contention these days is a dominant pitching staff. Manaea brings valuable experience on what could end up being a bargain contract. Point blank, he should be the Mets free agent most prominently on Jed Hoyer's radar.