As of this writing, we still don't know if the non-contact injury Damian Lillard suffered in Game 4 against the Pacers was indeed an Achilles' tear. But it certainly looked that way, an injury that many NBA fans are becoming unfortunately comfortable diagnosing from their armchairs.
Even if, or when, the nature of the injury is confirmed, there will only be more questions. An Achilles' tear would mean Lillard almost certainly misses all of next season. In the best-case scenario he would be attempting to make his return at the age of 36, and it's not clear where he would even be trying to make that return.
The Bucks were likely going to explore the trade market for him this offseason and while a trade will probably be off the table, he'll be rehabbing under the final guaranteed year of his contract. Lillard has a $58 million player-option for 2026-27, and it would be almost unthinkable to walk away from that much money, but it's not guaranteed he opts in if Milwaukee makes clear he's not going to be a part of their present or future.
All that is to say, we can comfortably assume Lillard's prime is over and that it's not even guaranteed we ever see him making useful contributions for a contending team again. But, if he is in fact in the darkest timeline, we still know that this career arc is going to end in the Hall-of-Fame.
Even if he retired today, Damian Lillard is a Hall-of-Famer
Making the Hall-of-Fame case for a star player who was never a real MVP candidate and never won a ring can be fuzzy, but the rest of Lillard's resume makes it pretty easy.
- 2012-13 Rookie of the Year
- Selected to the NBA"s 75th Anniversary Team
- Top-50 in career points and assists
- Nine-time All-Star selection
- Seven-time All-NBA selection
- Two-time 3-Point Contest champion
- 4th all-time in made 3-pointers
- 4th all-time in career free-throw percentage
Elements and achievements like those are factored into Basketball-Reference's Hall-of-Fame probability model, which gives Lillard a 99.5 percent chance of being selected. That's essentially the same as contemporaries like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokić and ahead of the probabilities for both active players like Kawhi Leonard and Draymond Green, and already inducted legends like Walt Frazier, Kevin McHale, Steve Nash, Dominique Wilkins, George Gervin or Tracy McGrady.
One variable that's not included in the model, but seems to be a factor, is signature, legacy-building moments. So it certainly helps Lillard's case that he's responsible for two of the most iconic shots in playoff history. In 2014, he won a first-round series over the Rockets with a buzzer-beating 3-pointer.
Five years later, he clinched another series with another buzzer-beater, a rainbow from 10 feet beyond the 3-point line to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Moments like these cement Lillard's reputation as one of the best clutch players in recent memory and will absolutely bolster his case in the minds of voters.
Here's hoping we see Lillard get another chance to play healthy, somewhere near the height of his physical powers. But even if the Lillard we know and love is gone, he's still a no-doubt Hall-of-Famer.