Dave Dombrowski's most recent signing feels all-too familiar for Phillies

The 2024 season did not go as planned for the Philadelphia Phillies. Yes, they did win the NL East for the first time since 2011, but despite earning a first-round bye, they were eliminated in four games in the NLDS by their division rivals, the New York Mets.

With how this season ended, Phillies fans had high hopes for this coming offseason, but have had to watch the Mets sign Juan Soto while their team has done relatively nothing.

That changed on Thursday as Philadelphia made its second signing of the winter thus far, inking Max Kepler on a one-year deal according to Mark Feinsand and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. The deal is worth $10 million, per ESPN's Jeff Passan.

While there are things to like with the Kepler addition, it also follows one frustrating recent trend.

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Phillies recent signing follows frustrating recent trend

Again, there are things to like with this signing. He has hit as many as 36 home runs in a single season. In 2023, he went yard 24 times and had a .816 OPS. He also happens to be a high-end defender in right field. Betting on a player who has been quite good in the past at just $10 million for one year can work out well.

The problem, though, is that the 31-year-old is coming off his worst season. He slashed .253/.302/.380 with eight home runs and 42 RBI in 105 games for the Minnesota Twins, posting a career-worst .682 OPS in the process. Kepler has been good in the past, but he's also coming off a down year. Which version will the Phillies get?

This is eerily similar to the Jordan Romano signing from the Winter Meetings. Romano has, in the past, been one of the best closers in all of baseball. He's also coming off a dreadful season heavily impacted by injury. He might be able to revert back to dominant form, but he also might not. It can be considered a worthwhile gamble, but it's a gamble nonetheless.

Another example of Dave Dombrowski choosing to take risks came from last season's trade deadline when the Phillies acquired Austin Hays in a trade with the Baltimore Orioles. Hays had been a solid outfielder in the past, but was in the midst of a down year when Philadelphia acquired him. He stepped his game up a bit in Philadelphia, but still underwhelmed.

Kepler might be able to revert to being a plus outfielder, but there's a reason he signed the deal that he did. Seeing a team that should be pushing as hard as it can to win the World Series settle on gambles like this instead of pursuing more consistent and expensive alternatives is frustrating.

The Phillies didn't need to sign Soto, but would a guy like Teoscar Hernandez have been too expensive? If the biggest moves this winter are Romano and Kepler gambles, it's hard to envision this team taking the next step and winning the World Series, especially while elite teams in the NL like the Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers are improving. A lot would have to go right, which is really hard to bank on.