Did the Yankees strike gold or just plain strike out: What we can expect from Paul Goldschmidt

The New York Yankees have followed a distinguishable pattern for the past many years, and it would seem they followed it once more. In signing Paul Goldschmidt, Brian Cashman has more or less built upon the Bronx tradition of acquiring aging stars past their prime.

You may or may not remember the brief Yankee tenures of Lance Berkman, Ichiro, Andruw Jones, or even the recent Josh Donaldson experiment, none of which ended too well. But does that mean the Goldschmidt tenure is doomed to be unmemorable?

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A look at Paul Goldschmidt’s potential with the Yankees

With a .289 career batting average and 362 home runs, Paul Goldschmidt has built a career that might land him in the Hall of Fame one day. Had the Yankees nabbed Goldy six years ago when the D-Backs traded him, this would have been a dream come true. But since the five-time Silver Slugger won his first MVP award in 2022, it’s all been downhill.

In the past three years, he posted wRC+ values of 175, 122, and 100 respectively. In his latest campaign, the once daunting slugger slashed a mere .245/.302/.414/.716 with 22 home runs, his worst season in his 14-year career which seemingly indicates Goldy’s golden days are gone. That said, what can we expect from him next season?

In hindsight, Goldschmidt’s MVP year wasn’t that long ago. Can his bat wake from its slumber and produce another stellar year? One could hope, but at age 37, that isn’t a likely scenario.

For safe measure, let’s start with our base scenario, that being last year’s stats. If Goldy puts on a similar performance to last season, Yankee Stadium will certainly help his numbers a little. Goldschmidt still has power to all fields which comes in handy for a right-handed hitter in the confines of the house Jeter built. He also comes with three Gold Gloves, which will be welcome in the Bronx. But rather than over-examine his latest stats and career achievements, let’s evaluate the underlying metrics.

In his 2022 MVP season, Goldschmidt’s average exit velocity, barrels percentage (the optimal blend of launch angle and exit velocity), and hard-hit percentage all ranked in the 80th percentile. His launch angle sweet spot percentage (optimal launch angle), however, was just below the 30th percentile.

In 2024, his barrels percentage dipped into the 70th percentile, his average exit velocity climbed by 0.4 MPH in the same 80th percentile, his hard-hit rate climbed earning him an elite spot in the 90th percentile, and his launch angle sweet spot percentage improved placing him in the 50th percentile. One more difference was his walk rate. Prior to last season, Goldschmidt always drew plenty of walks whereas, in 2024, his walk rate suffered. So far, there are two drawbacks in the metrics.

Goldschmidt’s walk rate dove significantly and his barrels percentage dipped. Overall, the rest of the metrics are pointing in the right direction. How a player can improve in several metrics and still decline heavily is something numbers cannot explain. But does this offer any real insight to how Goldschmidt will perform in the Bronx? Maybe, but nothing concrete. Let’s dig a little deeper in search of results-based data nuggets. For this, we will visit his splits.

Goldy has long been inconsistent. In one half of the season, he would slump while in the other half he would perform brilliantly. Unfortunately, neither half of last season reached his lofty standard of hitting. In the first half, he recorded a .230 average while hitting .271 in the latter half. However, a glance at Goldschmidt’s splits by ballpark can reveal some discrepancies.

Last season, Goldy posted a lackluster .223 average at home and a .266 average on the road hitting 11 home runs on each side of the splits. Moreso, granted only a sample size of 26 at-bats, Goldy maintains a .462 average with one home run at Yankee Stadium over his career (7-13 in 2024).

If Goldschmidt can shake his St. Louis blues, he can be a more productive hitter than first meets the eye. While no metrics can predict a player’s future performance, Goldy doesn’t seem to be a true laggard by any means. But regardless if his decline continues, Goldschmidt will be a great veteran presence in the dugout. With young stars like Jasson Dominguez, Austin Wells, and Anthony Volpe, Goldschmidt can prove to be a valuable mentor, aiding the team’s cumulative stat line in a way that doesn’t appear in his own.

Was he the best offensive option first base? Probably not. But acquiring Goldschmidt past his prime may not be a waste by any stretch.