The Dodgers’ Blake Snell signing could troll hated rival into a terrible mistake

As if there was any doubt, the Los Angeles Dodgers made the first major splash of the offseason, inking Blake Snell on a massive five-year contract. Snell joins Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow among several others, in what might just be the best and deepest rotation in all of baseball let alone the NL West. The defending World Series champions got a whole lot better.

Not only did the Dodgers manage to sign one of the best pitchers available, but they managed to steal him away from the team he was on this past season, the San Francisco Giants. The Giants do still have Logan Webb and a couple of intriguing pieces in their rotation, but for them to be better than the 80-82 team that they were this past season, replacing Snell, at the very least, is a must.

Fortunately for Giants fans, the team reportedly has "significant interest" in the best starting pitcher on the open market, Corbin Burnes, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. While that sounds good on paper, signing Burnes could prove to be a terrible mistake.

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Corbin Burnes isn't the upgrade over Blake Snell that he's thought to be

Ever since he became a full-time starting pitcher in the middle of the shortened 2020 campaign, Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He's posted a sub-3.00 ERA during that span, has made four All-Star teams, and even won a Cy Young award back in 2021. Additionally, he's been remarkably durable, which is something Snell cannot match.

As promising as Burnes looks on paper, there are a couple of glaring red flags.

First, Burnes, given the fact that he's nearly two full years younger than Snell, is going to get more years in his contract which, for a pitcher, is always a little bit concerning.

Second, while Burnes remains elite, some numbers suggest he's trending in the wrong direction. For example, his strikeout rate has decreased in each of his last five seasons. It was as high as 36.7 percent in 2020 to just 23.1 percent this past season. He ranked in the 51st percentile in strikeout rate according to Baseball Savant, which is not ideal for an ace that just hit the age of 30. On the flip side, Snell's 34.7 percent strikeout rate this past season was a career-best.

Not only has Burnes seen a rapid decline in his strikeout rate, but the opposition has been swinging and missing less at his pitches. Burnes' velocity on his best pitch - his cutter - was actually up a bit this past season, but he still generated just a 19 percent whiff rate on it according to Baseball Savant, which was a career-low. His best put-away pitch - his curveball - had a 37.8 percent whiff rate. While that's a very solid figure for some, it was his lowest whiff rate on that pitch since 2018 - his rookie season. Burnes was a reliever that year and threw that pitch just 6.8 percent of the time.

The results are still there, for now, but his stuff doesn't appear to be nearly as dominant as it once was. Snell departing, especially for the Dodgers, certainly puts pressure on Buster Posey and Co. to make moves, but pivoting to Burnes after missing out on Snell could prove to be a crucial mistake by the time Burnes' massive contract is finally up. There's reason to believe Burnes will be fine for the next couple of years, but with how his stuff is trending, that contract might age incredibly poorly.