Don't be fooled: Dodgers are at an unfamiliar disadvantage in Roki Sasaki chase

For much of the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been seen as clear-cut favorites to sign him, and for good reason. What don't the Dodgers have to offer?

By signing with them, Sasaki would get to play on the West Coast alongside both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto with elite pitching coach Mark Prior for the defending World Series champions. How can another team possibly beat that pitch? He'd live where he wants, get to play with two other Japanese stars, get awesome pitching development, and compete every year.

While the Dodgers have a case as good as any team can possibly have, they're only one of three finalists. There's a very realistic chance that Sasaki ends up elsewhere, and the unfamiliar disadvantage that the Dodgers have in their chase could come back to bite them.

The Seattle Mariners are not among the reported finalists, but the San Diego Padres and Toronto Blue Jays both are. They have $1.9 million more to offer in international bonus money than the Dodgers do. For a Dodgers team that currently has the highest payroll in the league by far, this is unfamiliar territory.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop between now and the MLB offseason.

Dodgers have one unfamiliar disadvantage to try and overcome in Roki Sasaki chase

The Dodgers' luxury tax payroll sits at $353.3 million per Spotrac. That's over $50 million more than the Philadelphia Phillies, who have a payroll at just a shade under $300 million. They're a team that isn't shy when it comes to spending money, and would almost certainly throw $300+ million Sasaki's way if they could. Unfortunately for Dodgers fans, Sasaki can't sign for the kind of deal Yoshinobu Yamamoto did last offseason per international free agency rules. He can only sign a minor league deal with international bonus money, which the Dodgers don't have as much of as their competition.

Now, it's important to point out that the roughly $2 million difference in what the finalists can offer almost certainly won't play much of a role in Sasaki's final decision. If Sasaki was all about the money, he would have waited until he was 25 and pursued something similar to the 12-year, $325 million deal that Yamamoto signed last offseason.

However, this puts the Dodgers in unfamiliar territory. No longer can they simply outbid the field to sign Sasaki. They can't even match what the other teams can offer him, as they did with Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani. The best they can do is give them their best pitch and hope that the money difference doesn't play a large enough role.

The Dodgers should probably still be seen as the favorites to land Sasaki, but money won't be the reason why they land him if they do.