Expectations were high for the Baltimore Orioles coming into this season. No team has a more expansive pipeline of young talent. No team has more future star-power than the O's, whose depth extends well beyond the MLB roster. And yet, at 11-18, the Orioles are dead last in a competitive AL East. It's too early to give up hope entirely, but it's unclear how Baltimore claws its way out of this hole. The offense has performed well below expectations, with Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle all boasting an OPS below .700 so far. Again, some of these trends will reverse in due time, but we are already through April and the O's look dead in the water.
Even worse than Baltimore's offense is the pitching staff. With injuries piling up, the O's are getting smoked on a regular basis. Kyle Gibson stepped in and fell apart in his first start with Baltimore this week. Charlie Morton, their prized offseason addition to replace Corbin Burnes, has finally lost his battle to Father Time.
With Kyle Bradish, Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez all on the IL, it's unclear when Baltimore can expect a fully functional rotation. Maybe not until next season, if we're being honest.
That leaves one pitcher vulnerable to trade talks as the season progresses — Tomoyuki Sugano.
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Orioles could shop Tomoyuki Sugano if season continues on downward spiral
Baltimore inked Sugano to a one-year, $13 million contract out of Japan last winter. Much of the attention for NBP pitchers in free agency was focused on 22-year-old phenom Roki Sasaki, but Sugano offered veteran wisdom and an impressive arsenal of pitches at 35 years old.
While not a long-term option, there was a firm belief that Sugano could function as a key weapon in the middle of Baltimore's injury-battered, depth-deprived rotation. So far, Sugano has delivered on the hype and then some, logging a 3.00 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across six starts. He has allowed 32 hits, 11 earned runs and only six walks through 33.0 innings, with 17 strikeouts to his name.
Sugano has, frankly, exceeded expectations — in part due to the fathomless void of talent around him. He has been the only productive starter in Baltimore through two months of the season, and while that is a massive failure on account of general manager Mike Elias and the front office, it has put a spotlight on Sugano's success. He has been a ray of sunlight in the darkness for O's fans.
So, why might he end up on the trade block? Well, it's simple logic. He's on a one-year contract and the O's are not good right now. If Baltimore continues to slip out of contention, Elias will need to consider selling at the trade deadline. There is a strong market for quality pitching nowadays, and Sugano is the only regular Orioles starter of any value right now.
With Zach Eflin due back sooner than later, Baltimore's rotation will not stay this bad all season. That just makes it easier to cash in on Sugano's value as an expiring contract, especially since the O's have given him very little reason to consider re-signing in 2026. He's nearing the end of his career, even as a rookie, and ought to prefer a more established contender with a serious front office.
Sugano won't return a king's ransom at 35 years old, especially not on a one-year deal, but if the O's can add more young talent to the pipeline — preferably at pitcher, but really anywhere — then it becomes a worthwhile proposition. That is, assuming this season is lost once the trade deadline rolls around.