Drew Allar’s return to Penn State carries a hidden meaning for Arch Manning and Texas

It is getting harder and harder to potentially justify Arch Manning leaving school a year early. While he is not yet draft-eligible, the Texas quarterback would be after next season. Although the Mannings have made it a point not to turn pro until after their fourth year of college football, it has become even more en-vogue to leave school early in this day and age. Fortunately, this is not going to happen now.

With Penn State quarterback Drew Allar joining LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier in announcing their intentions of returning to school for one more year, Manning would have stiff competition when it comes to being one of the first quarterbacks taken. Allar and Nussmeier have way more starting experience than him at the college level. There could be even more quarterbacks who opt to stay.

What I am getting at is unless Manning has a 2019 Joe Burrow season at Texas next year, there is no reason for him to leave school early with two more years of eligibility left on the table. While the 2025 quarterback draft class may not be anything special, there is a chance guys like Allar and Nussmeier make the 2026 class one worth writing home about. All signs point toward Manning leaving in 2027.

Allar coming back to Penn State is huge for the Nittany Lions' extended chances of winning it all.

Quarterbacks seem to be failing at an alarming rate in the NFL because of a lack of collegiate starts.

Drew Allar returning to Penn State impacts Arch Manning's NFL future

Look. 2027 was always going to be the year that Manning entered the NFL Draft. That would have given him four years in school and at least two years where he is starting games as a Power Four school. While Quinn Ewers still has eligibility left to be had, all signs point to Texas pivoting off him in favor of Manning next year. Ewers could turn pro, but we have seen his NFL Draft stock deteriorate.

When it comes to evaluating Allar and Nussmeier's future NFL Draft stocks, I look at Allar as a better version of J.J. McCarthy and Nussmeier like a Drake Maye with NFL pedigree because of his famous father Doug. I fully anticipate that Penn State and LSU will be in the College Football Playoff mix next year along with Texas. To be frank, unless Manning wins the Heisman Trophy, he will be back in 2026.

And just because this year's quarterback draft class may not move the needle on paper all that much, there is a chance guys like Colorado's Shedeur Sanders and Miami's Cam Ward could be decade-long starters at the next level. Since Burrow went No. 1 overall to the Cincinnati Bengals in 2020, how many franchise-changing quarterbacks have entered the NFL Draft? It is not as many as you think...

For now, Manning must bank many more starts before we even think about getting him to the NFL.