Fewer results have been more shocking in the NCAA Tournament than the collapse Duke pulled off on Saturday night. After Tyrese Proctor sunk a free throw to put Duke up 59-45 with 8:17 left in the second half, ESPN's Gamecast gave the Blue Devils a 98.5 percent chance to win the game and advance to the national championship on Monday.
The Blue Devils managed to cough up that entire lead thanks to an epic collapse that saw them make one field goal in the final 10 and a half minutes of the game while surrendering a 9-0 run in the final 33 seconds of the game. There was a controversial foul call against Cooper Flagg in the final minute to put the Cougars on the line for the go-ahead free throws, but the damage had already been done by that point.
Turning what looked like a slam dunk spot in the national championship game into the end of their season is an all-time failure from Duke, which had a golden opportunity to win its first title since 2015. Where does this collapse rank among the biggest choke jobs in NCAA Tournament history?
Placing Duke's Final Four Collapse Into Historical Perspective
The lead that Duke squandered isn't the biggest collapse in March Madness history in terms of points since that distinction belongs to Iona, which built a 25-point lead in a First Four game against BYU late in the first half before falling apart and blowing the game in a 78-72 loss. While that Gaels team will live in infamy a while longer, losing a First Four game isn't quite the same as blowing a chance to reach the national championship.
Duke was actually on the other end of one of these collapses back in 2001, when Maryland built a 39-17 first half lead on them in the Final Four before the Blue Devils rallied to win by 11. While the loss was a disaster in the moment for the Terrapins, they can look past that collapse since the core of that team went on to win a national championship in the following season.
That 22 point margin was also matched in 2018, when Nevada came back to stun Cincinnati in the Round of 32. West Virginia blew a 20-point lead in the 2005 Elite Eight to Louisville, which is a dramatic swing at that stage of the tournament, but the later a collapse happens the worse it is for the history books.
In terms of the Final Four, Maryland's collapse against Duke is the most from a points perspective but it isn't the first time the Blue Devils have melted down in the national semifinals. The 1989 edition of the Blue Devils, coached by Mike Krzyzewski, had an 18-point lead over Seton Hall before blowing it in a 95-78 loss to the Pirates.
The 2023 Final Four also saw a 14-point lead get blown as Florida Atlantic couldn't put away San Diego State, leaving them vulnerable to a comeback that was capped by a buzzer beater from Lamont Butler. Perhaps the most comparable pain for Duke is found with their most bitter rival, with North Carolina conceding the biggest comeback in the history of the national championship game.
Even North Carolina has blown late March Madness leads
Back in 2022, the Tar Heels followed up ruining Krzyzewski's farewell season in the Final Four by building a 16-point lead over Kansas. Hubert Davis' team absolutely collapsed the rest of the way, letting the Jayhawks surge past them and pull in front with a six-point lead halfway through the second that they never relinquished.
There are varying degrees of certainty that can impact collapses, but the fact that Duke's happened so late in the game and with so much on the line all but guarantees this choke a spot inside the top five biggest collapses in March Madness history. If the Blue Devils come back in 2026 and win the national championship, the harshness of this failure will lessen, but fewer teams have squandered a golden opportunity to cut down the nets like Duke did on Saturday night.