Another day, another convincing win for Cooper Flagg and the Duke Blue Devils, who followed up a weekend romp over Illinois at Madison Square Garden with a 37-point pasting of Miami on Tuesday night. With Flagg strengthening his grip on the National Player of the Year race, two ideal running mates on the wing in Kon Knueppel and Tyrese Proctor and Khaman Maluach growing as an interior presence right in front of our eyes, there's not a lot that Jon Scheyer's team doesn't excel at, and they sure look the part of an inner-circle national title contender right now.
But as Duke fans know all too well, March Madness is a fickle beast, where anything can happen and just one off day or bad matchup can send you home. So while the Blue Devils are rolling, let's peek ahead at where exactly they might wind up in the NCAA Tournament, and what the latest bracket projections can tell us about what a path to the Final Four might look like.
Duke Bracketology: Blue Devils seemingly locked into No. 1 seed
With just three games left in the regular season, Duke feels like a lock for one of the top two overall seeds in the NCAA Tournament, depending on what happens in the ACC Tournament and what Auburn does over the next couple of weeks. (While Duke does have a head-to-head win over the Tigers, Auburn's strength of schedule advantage is significant, and it'll have a ton of opportunities for marquee wins down the stretch.)
But no matter where you fall in the Duke-Auburn debate, it shouldn't much matter when Selection Sunday rolls around. If the Blue Devils do nab the top overall seed, the committee is likely to place them in the East regional; if the Tigers get the honors, they'll be in the South, with Duke winding up in the East anyway. Barring a wildly unlikely collapse, it's hard to see Duke falling any further than that, especially with Florida and Alabama hurting each other's cases over the next 10 days (not to mention the Gators' upset loss to Georgia on Tuesday).
So we can pretty confidently project Duke to wind up going through Newark to get to the Final Four. But which teams might wind up standing in their way?
Duke March Madness scenarios: What projected brackets say about potential Final Four path
Nabbing a No. 1 seed means that Duke will be facing the winner of an 8/9 game in the second round, likely in the Blue Devils' own backyard in Raleigh. Just which eight- or nine-seed might that be? Per Bracket Matrix, here are the most common teams slotted into those spots across the internet right now:
• No. 8 seeds: Illinois, Creighton, Utah State, Connecticut
• No. 9 seeds: BYU, New Mexico, Gonzaga, Baylor
As you might expect, it's hard to identify any major pitfalls for Duke here. UConn is the name that immediately jumps out, but these aren't last year's Huskies — especially on defense, where Dan Hurley's team would have a very hard time keeping Flagg and Co. from rampaging to the rim. We already saw the Blue Devils dismantle Illinois a few days ago, and mid-majors like Utah State and New Mexico don't figure to match up physically. Creighton seven-footer Ryan Kalkbrenner might pose a unique challenge, although the Blue Jays don't really have much juice around him offensively, while BYU's ability to shoot the lights out from 3 might be the most likely path to a shocking second-round upset.
Of course, there's always the possibility that the selection committee sticks Duke with a tougher path than we expect. St. Mary's looms as an eight-seed in Jerry Palm's most recent projection, and while he's an outlier on the Gaels, that matchup should catch the Blue Devils' attention.
From there, Duke would likely face either a four or five seed in the Sweet 16. Again, let's consult Bracket Matrix:
• No. 4 seeds: Texas Tech, Michigan, Arizona, Purdue
• No. 5 seeds: Missouri, Maryland, Clemson, Mississippi State
Weirdly, the No. 5 seeds here might be more of a cause for concern. Arizona and Purdue are fading down the stretch of the regular season, a combined 1-7 over their last eight games, while Michigan has been surfing on some wild close-game luck of late. Clemson is the only team in the last three months to actually hand the Blue Devils a loss, while Maryland is among the most underrated teams in the country right now and Missouri can hang with anyone if they get hot from deep. If you're looking for another team to avoid, how about St. John's, which could wind up on the four line and has arguably the best defense in the country — plus a coach in Rick Pitino who knows how to win in March.
From there, we move on to the Elite 8, where Duke might face any two or three seed: from Houston to Tennessee to Texas A&M to Michigan State to Iowa State to Wisconsin. Some of those teams are scarier than others, of course; Houston and Tennessee can defend as well as anyone in the country and benefit from steely veteran guard play, while A&M and Michigan State will be hard-pressed to knock down enough shots to pull off an upset. Something like New Mexico, Purdue and Michigan State could represent a best-case scenario road to the Final Four. BYU, Maryland and St. John's or Houston, however, could be a whole different story.