Where do the Eagles fit in the NFC Playoff picture heading into Week 7?

If someone said the Philadelphia Eagles would have a 3-2 record two months ago, you’d probably be cool with it. There were supposed to be new offensive and defensive schemes, so it would make sense that there would be an acclimation period for both Jalen Hurts and everyone on the defense. That was half right: the defense is new, but the offense is largely the same as it was in 2023.

Because of that, the losses felt terrible and the Week 6 win against the Browns was much closer than it had to be. Everything feels uncomfortable and a little bit off. Now the Eagles are in a tough spot in both the NFC East and the NFC playoff picture as a whole.

The Eagles road to the playoffs is a rocky one

If the regular season ended today, the Eagles' season would also end. They are currently in second place in the NFC East and two spots out of the seventh seed in the playoffs. That probably be where the team deserves to be based on some of the garbage we’ve seen, but it’s nowhere close to where we want to be. 

Luckily, we’re only a third of the way through the season. There’s a lot of ground to make up and there’s plenty of time to do it. Week 7 will be pivotal for the Eagles when they have their first divisional game and it’s against the New York Giants. 

Per Next Gen Stats, if the Eagles win that game, they have a 60 percent chance of making it to the postseason. If they lose that game, they have a 40 percent chance. That’s a pretty big swing based on a game against, what should be, a terrible opponent.

The Eagles’ destiny doesn’t lie in their own hands at this point. It turns out that the NFC is actually kind of stacked, and it starts with the NFC North. Every team in that division has at least four wins and there’s a decent chance that three of those four teams make it to the playoffs. 

The Vikings currently have a 92 percent chance to make it to the postseason, the Lions have an 83 percent chance, and the Packers have a 53 percent chance. If that holds true through the rest of the season, there would only be one wild card spot available.

That’s trouble because two teams from the NFC West could potentially make it to the playoffs as well: the 49ers and the Seahawks. It’s the same deal with the NFC South, which is a much stronger division than anyone anticipated. Both the Buccaneers and Falcons have a record of 4-2, and both of those teams have a win over the Eagles, so they would be the winners in a tiebreaker.

This means there might be only one team from the NFC East that makes it to the postseason, and that’s the winner of the division. We know there’s a curse on the NFC East and that no team has been capable of winning it in back-to-back years since 2004. That is to say, the NFC East’s sole representative is going to be the Commanders, the Giants, or the Eagles because the Cowboys won it last year.

If the Eagles are going to win the NFC East, they’re going to have to win at least four of their six divisional games. In Week 7, they have an opportunity to get that train rolling against the Giants. Then again in Week 10 at Dallas, Week 11 at home against the Commanders, and then in Weeks 16, 17, and 18 against all three teams.

It’s been a minute since the Eagles have played meaningful, do-or-die games in the last weeks of the season, but this might be the year that it happens. If the division is as tight as it has the potential to be, the Eagles' final three games could be as meaningful, stressful, and potentially soul-crushing as it gets.

Now if you want to compare that to the first-place Commanders, they have what could be a potentially more difficult final stretch of their season. In Week 15, they play the Saints, followed by the Eagles, the Falcons, and the Cowboys. When they have their NFC South stretch, those teams will be significantly different from what we saw of them in September. 

Keep in mind, the four teams the Commanders have beaten have a combined record of 7-17, and the two teams they lost to have a combined record of 8-2. Yeah, they’re winning against bad teams, but they haven’t overcome any ‘fraud-watch’ allegations.

The point here is that the Eagles don’t have a spot in the NFC playoff picture right now, and the teams that are in front of them are good football teams. It’d be nice if some of the four-win teams in other divisions slipped a little bit to open up the wildcard spots, but as of right now, their path to the postseason is through the NFC East. Two months ago, you would’ve said, ‘Sweet. The rest of the division is pathetic.’ Now you’re saying, ‘Uh oh. This division is kind of pathetic except for Commanders.’

For what it’s worth, as of Oct. 17, DraftKings has the Eagles at -200 to make the playoffs and +160 to not make it. So Vegas still believes, which is weirdly comforting in a degenerate sort of way.