Which teams do the Eagles beat out via tiebreakers for the NFL Playoffs?

The Philadelphia Eagles have a real shot at being the top seed in the NFC playoffs with their 10-2 record, but their future isn’t in their hands right now. The Detroit Lions are currently sitting at the top of the NFC, but their schedule is significantly more difficult than what the Birds have to deal with.

We know all too well that it’s easy to fall from the top. If the Lions do slip as soon as (and especially) this week, four teams will have the opportunity to get the first-round bye and home-field advantage through the playoffs. 

The top of the NFC playoff picture is coming down to the wire

The Eagles can win anywhere. One thing about the Eagles’ win over the Ravens that’s not getting a whole lot of attention is that it was an away game. M&T Bank is a hard place to win a football game. 

The Eagles getting the top seed in the NFC is less about not having to go to Detroit for an NFC Championship game and more about making Jared Goff play at The Linc in late January. Goff’s an indoor cat. 

In his career, Goff has played 49 games in domes and 67 games outdoors, per Pro Football Reference. Here are some key differences in how he plays inside vs. how he plays outside: 

It’s pretty clear that he’s a significantly worse passer and ball-handler when he’s outside. Those numbers don’t even take into account whether or not the outdoor games were when it’s cold or not. 

Also, the bye week would be sick too. The Eagles had a very early bye in Week 5 and a midseason mini-bye, so getting a week off to get healthy again would probably be delightful.  

Right now, the NFC playoff picture looks like this:

The Eagles currently have three fewer losses than the Washington Commanders, three fewer losses than the NFC West-leading Seahawks, and four fewer losses than the NFC South-leading Falcons. The Eagles are pretty safe in second-seed territory right now as the potential winners of the NFC East. The top seed comes down to what happens in the NFC North.

The Thursday Night game this week is incredibly important because if the Green Bay Packers beat the Lions, everything opens up. That would mean the Lions, the Vikings, and the Eagles would all have two losses going into Sunday, and the Packers would be right behind them with three losses.

For this, we’re going to assume that the Eagles win their last five games because if they lose just one it makes the equation a whole lot hairier. For the Eagles to get the first seed with three losses, it would mean the Lions need to lose to the Packers and one other game, which feels super unlikely.

It turns out that the Week 1 win The Birds had over Green Bay has the potential to be extremely significant. If the Packers win this week, the Eagles would have the No. 1 seed because they would have a better record against common opponents with the Lions … but, that doesn’t get us out of the woods yet, because then the Vikings are also a threat. 

The Eagles would need Minnesota to lose a game at some point. If the Lions lose to the Packers and the Vikings win the NFC North with a 15-2 record, they would win the Strength of Victory (SOV is the combined records of teams that a team has beaten) tiebreaker over the Eagles.

Luckily, the Vikings still play both the Packers and the Lions one more time before the season ends. In a perfect world that division absolutely eats itself alive. 

Now, if the Lions beat the Packers on Thursday night, everything is worse. For the Eagles to get the top seed, the Lions would have to lose two games, between Weeks 15, 16, and 17. Those games are home vs. the Bills, at the Bears, and at the 49ers. They could lose to the Bills, but the other two should be easy wins for Detroit, despite being outside.

If they don’t lose two of those, then they would clinch the top spot and their Week 18 game against the Vikings would be meaningless. If the Lions lost that game and ended their season with a 15-2 record, they would have the top seed because of the SOV tiebreaker over the Eagles.

The craziest thing about all of this is that there could be THREE teams that end the season with a 15-2 record in the NFC, and one of those teams would be a Wild Card team. 

What we’re looking for is chaos, cannibalism, and upsets in the North … but first, we’re going to be Packers fans on Thursday. It’s the most important non-Eagles game for the rest of the season. “Go Pack Go,” or whatever they say.