When ESPN's Bill Connelly put out his SP+ rankings after spring practice, the college football world had a few bones to pick with him, alright. While he is only using hand-selected data to try and make a point, there are a few parts of his top 25 rankings that do not make any sense. What did Clemson and South Carolina ever do to him? Nick Saban is not coaching at Alabama. Is Texas still a top-five team?
Outside of having the Crimson Tide at No. 2, I can somewhat get behind who else Connelly has in his top five. Most people would have teams like Georgia, Ohio State, Penn State and Texas in and around the top six anyway. The same probably applies to Notre Dame, definitely Clemson, and potentially Oregon. However, this post is all about one thing and one thing only. Arch Manning is still unproven.
Yes, you can argue the same for the starting quarterbacks of three of the four teams ranked ahead of Texas. Outside of Drew Allar at Penn State, who can be shaky at times, what do we really know about Julian Sayin, Ty Simpson and Gunner Stockton? About as much as we know about Manning. And therein lies my point. Why are people saying he will be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
To date, Manning has started just two games for Texas against lowly Mississippi State and ULM...
Also, having Texas as the third highest ranked team out of the SEC in Connelly's rankings is fitting.
Arch Manning will have no choice but to rise to the occasion with Texas
While nobody plays an easy schedule in the SEC, there are at least two brutal road dates the Longhorns must navigate with a first-year starting quarterback. Right from the jump, they have to go into The Horseshoe to take on the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes. Yes, they are breaking in a new quarterback, but Connelly has them with the best SP+ rankings after the spring.
The other brutal road game will come much later in the year during the heart of conference play. Manning will have to go Between the Hedges and beat the school he picked Texas over. Georgia beat Texas twice last year, and neither time it was in Athens. Georgia is not a perfect program anymore, but the Dawgs have not lost a home game at Sanford Stadium since before COVID. Let that sink in, y'all...
Overall, I expect for Manning and the Longhorns to win around 10 games this season and be in the College Football Playoff. I may have overstated them being a lock, as they have other tough games on the schedule besides at Ohio State and at Georgia. At Florida could be tough. So could Red River vs. arch rival Oklahoma in Dallas. Sleeping on Texas A&M at home could have awful consequences.
In the end, this season for Texas will be all about Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian putting Manning in advantageous situations to succeed. This is one of eight or so teams that could win the College Football Playoff. I just think we have grossly overlooked the potential variance that could be had with a first-year starting quarterback in Manning. Texas has a massive target on its back anyway.
They may be might pick to win the SEC right now, but I am feeling less confident about it by the day.