Every team that can be eliminated from College Football Playoff with a loss in Week 8

Through the first seven weeks of the 2024 college football season, we can safely say that 63 teams have been mathematically eliminated from the 12-team College Football Playoff. It is a combination of total losses and conference losses that have done the trick for nearly half of the teams competing at FBS, which is 134. While 29 should be safe this week no matter what, there are 42 who must win.

Wit the help of ESPN's Football Power Index, I looked at all 134 teams in FBS, saw what their percentage chance of making the playoff was, and went from there. Many of the teams still alive are only barely in the mix, as of the 71 teams still technically in the mix to make the playoff, only 26 have a better than 10-percent chance of making it in. Even a few of those teams are on the chopping block!

So what I am going to do today is highlight all 42 teams who probably need a win this weekend to stave off College Football Playoff elimination. It should be noted that teams like Pittsburgh and Syracuse who will be on a bye this week are not going to be negatively impacted by the results of what happens around them. They are safe this week, simply because they are not even playing.

Let's start with the ACC and work our way down through the Power Four and into the Group of Five.

ACC

There are six teams in the ACC who are on the brink of elimination heading into this weekend.

Boston College Eagles: 4-2 (1-1)

Boston College must stave off elimination by beating Virginia Tech on the road on Thursday night.

Duke Blue Devils: 5-1 (1-1)

Duke cannot afford a second conference loss this season, especially one Saturday to Florida State.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 5-2 (3-2)

Georgia Tech already has two ACC losses, but a home loss to traditional rival Notre Dame would be it.

Louisville Cardinals: 4-2 (2-1)

A second ACC loss will ruin Louisville's slim chances of getting to Charlotte. They have to beat Miami.

Virginia Cavaliers: 4-2 (2-1)

The only way that Virginia keeps its slim playoff dreams alive are with a road upset over Clemson.

Virginia Tech Hokies: 3-3 (1-1)

As stated above, a home loss to Boston College will eliminate Virginia Tech from the playoff mix.

ACC teams alive no matter what (5): Clemson Tigers, Miami Hurricanes, Pittsburgh Panthers, SMU Mustangs, Syracuse Orange

ACC teams who are already eliminated (6): California Golden Bears, Florida State Seminoles, North Carolina Tar Heels, North Carolina State Wolfpack, Stanford Cardinal, Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Big Ten

There are seven teams in the Big Ten who are on the brink of elimination heading into this weekend.

Illinois Fighting Illini: 5-1 (2-1)

It is a playoff elimination game between Illinois and Michigan when the Illini host the Wolverines.

Iowa Hawkeyes: 4-2 (2-1)

A second conference loss would knock Iowa out, especially a bad one on the road to Michigan State.

Michigan Wolverines: 4-2 (2-1)

As stated above, this is a playoff elimination game on the horizon for Michigan going to Illinois.

Nebraska Cornhuskers; 5-1 (2-1)

While it may not be a playoff elimination game for undefeated Indiana, that is the case for Nebraska.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights: 4-2 (1-2)

A third Big Ten loss would knock Rutgers entirely out of its, especially if it were at home to UCLA.

USC Trojans: 3-3 (1-3)

USC is pretty much already out of it, but a road loss to Maryland would be the final nail in the coffin.

Wisconsin Badgers: 4-2 (2-1)

Wisconsin can't afford another Big Ten loss, especially one to an eliminated team in Northwestern.

Big Ten teams alive no matter what (4): Indiana Hoosiers, Ohio State Buckeyes, Oregon Ducks, Penn State Nittany Lions

Big Ten teams who are already eliminated (7): Maryland Terrapins, Michigan State Spartans, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Northwestern Wildcats, Purdue Boilermakers, UCLA Bruins, Washington Huskies

Big 12

There are eight teams in the Big 12 who are on the brink of elimination heading into this weekend.

Arizona Wildcats: 3-3 (1-2)

Arizona host Colorado in a certain College Football Playoff elimination game on Saturday afternoon.

Arizona Sun Devils: 5-1 (2-1)

Arizona State simply doesn't have the brand equity to afford two early-season losses in Big 12 play.

Cincinnati Bearcats: 4-2 (2-1)

As hinted at above, this is a playoff elimination game between Arizona State and Cincinnati this week.

Colorado Buffaloes: 4-2 (2-1)

As it is with Arizona, the Colorado Buffaloes cannot afford to suffer another loss to get to Arlington.

TCU Horned Frogs: 3-3 (1-2)

TCU should already be out of it after losing at home to Houston, but at road loss at Utah would do it.

UCF Knights: 3-3 (1-2)

UCF will be up against, as the Knights could be staring their third Big 12 loss in the face at Iowa State.

Utah Utes: 4-2 (1-2)

As mentioned above, it will be a playoff elimination game between Utah and TCU over in Salt Lake.

West Virginia Mountaineers: 3-3 (2-1)

A home loss to Kansas State would give West Virginia four losses on the season before Halloween.

Big 12 teams alive no matter what (4): BYU Cougars, Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas State Wildcats, Texas Tech Red Raiders

Big 12 teams who are already eliminated (4): Baylor Bears, Houston Cougars, Kansas Jayhawks, Oklahoma State Cowboys

SEC

There are seven teams in the SEC who are on the brink of elimination heading into this weekend.

Arkansas Razorbacks: 4-2 (2-1)

Losing The Battle for the Boot to LSU would give Arkansas three losses overall and two in SEC play.

Florida Gators: 3-3 (1-2)

Florida is the only team that can make the playoff at 8-4, but it can't include a home loss to Kentucky.

Kentucky Wildcats: 3-3 (1-3)

Kentucky needs to beat rival Florida in Gainesville to have any sliver of hope of making the playoff.

Missouri Tigers: 5-1 (2-1)

If Missouri loses to Auburn, that might be a bad enough of a loss to eliminate the Tigers completely.

Oklahoma Sooners: 4-2 (1-2)

Oklahoma has a tough enough schedule to get back in, but they can't lose at home to South Carolina.

South Carolina Gamecocks: 3-3 (1-3)

As hinted at above, South Carolina traveling to Oklahoma is a playoff game for both SEC programs.

Vanderbilt Commodores: 4-2 (2-1)

If Vanderbilt somehow loses to Ball State, the Commodores will be eliminated in heartbraking fashion.

SEC teams alive no matter what (7): Alabama Crimson Tide, Georgia Bulldogs, LSU Tigers, Ole Miss Rebels, Tennessee Volunteers, Texas Longhorns, Texas A&M Aggies

SEC teams who are already eliminated (2): Auburn Tigers, Mississippi State Bulldogs

Group of Five

There are 14 teams in the Group of Five who are on the brink of elimination heading into this week.

Buffalo Bulls: 4-2 (2-0)

Buffalo Bulls are still technically alive, mostly because they have not lost a conference game just yet.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: 4-2 (1-1)

Coastal Carolina's two losses to Virginia and James Madison aren't bad, but cannot afford a third one.

Fresno State Bulldogs: 3-3 (1-1)

Fresno State will be officially be eliminated with one more Mountain West loss, especially to Nevada.

Georgia Southern Eagles: 4-2 (2-0)

Georgia Southern is undefeated in Sun Belt play, but James Madison looms large this weekend.

Lousiana Ragin' Cajuns: 5-1 (2-0)

The Ragin' Cajuns' only loss is to Tulane out of the AAC. A road loss to Coastal Carolina ends them.

Marshall Thundering Herd: 3-3 (1-1)

A second loss in conference play should do the trick for Marshall. They host Georgia State this week.

Memphis Tigers: 5-1 (1-1)

Memphis will host North Texas in what will be a College Football Playoff elimination game in the AAC.

North Texas Mean Green: 5-1 (2-0)

Even though they don't have a loss in AAC play yet, North Texas will be out with their first to Memphis.

Northern Illinois Huskies: 4-2 (1-1)

A second loss in MAC play would eliminate Northern Illinois. Losing to Toledo would do the trick.

San Jose State Spartans: 4-2 (2-1)

A second loss in Mountain West play will knock San Jose State out of the playoff race this season.

Texas State Bobcats: 4-2 (2-0)

Texas State has two losses on the season, but neither were in the Sun Belt. They can't lose to ODU.

Tulane Green Wave: 4-2 (2-0)

Tulane's two losses were to Power Four teams Oklahoma and K-State. One more loss will end them.

Washington State Cougars: 5-1

Washington State's only loss is to Boise State, but not playing in a conference hurts them massively.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 4-2 (2-0)

Western Kentucky's two losses are two Power Four schools. A loss to Sam Houston probably does it.

Group of Five teams alive no matter what (8): Army Black Knights, Boise State Broncos, Liberty Flames, James Madison Dukes, Navy Midshipmen, Sam Houston Bearkats, UL Monroe Warhawks, UNLV Rebels

Group of Five teams who are already eliminated (42): Air Force Falcons, Akron Zips, Appalachian State Mountaineers, Arkansas State Red Wolves, Ball State Cardinals, Bowling Green Falcons, Central Michigan Chippewas, Charlotte 49ers, Colorado State Rams, East Carolina Pirates, Eastern Michigan Eagles, Florida Atlantic Owls, Florida International Panthers, Georgia State Panthers, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, Jacksonville State Gamecocks, Kennesaw State Owls, Kent State Golden Flashes, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, Miami RedHawks, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Nevada Wolf Pack, New Mexico Lobos, New Mexico State Aggies, Ohio Bobcats, Old Dominion Monarchs, Oregon State Beavers, Rice Owls, San Diego State Aztecs, South Alabama Jaguars, South Florida Bulls, Southern Miss Golden Eagles, Temple Owls, Toledo Rockets, Troy Trojans, Tulsa Golden Hurricane, UAB Blazers, Utah State Aggies, UTEP Miners, UTSA Roadrunners, Western Michigan Broncos, Wyoming Cowboys

National Independents

National independents still alive no matter what (1): Notre Dame Fighting Irish

National independents who are already eliminated (2): UConn Huskies, UMass Minutemen

In total, 41 teams can be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention with a loss in Week 8.