The North Carolina Tar Heels did not live up to expectations last season. Hubert Davis put together a strong roster on paper, but the pieces never quite fit together — in large part due to his own lack of innovation and imagination.
Now, he has lost both of his five-star recruits. Ian Jackson transferred to St. John's, while Drake Powell has declared for the 2025 NBA Draft. With R.J. Davis and several graduating seniors also departing, UNC is forced to rebuild on the fly. Hubert Davis still has cachet in the portal and on the recruitment trail — or, more accurately, Chapel Hill does — but it feels like the Tar Heels program is stuck in neutral.
Davis saved his job with a strong finish to the regular season and ACC Tournament. UNC even won a game in March Madness. The First Four definitely counts. That said, his handle on North Carolina's reputation is slipping, and his ex-players don't appear too willing to gas him up in the media.
Powell was blunt with reporters at the NBA Combine.
"I feel like I’m the same two-way player that I was coming into college. Obviously I don’t think I was able to showcase that at UNC.“
Not exactly a glowing endorsement of Davis and the program he has built at UNC.
Former UNC star believes Hubert Davis, Tar Heels held him back
Powell appeared in 34 games (27 starts) for the Tar Heels, averaging 7.4 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.1 assists on .483/.379/.648 splits in 25.2 minutes. On the surface, that is not much of an NBA resume. He is coasting on past reputation a bit. Powell was far more exciting and productive coming out of high school and there is hope that his elite athleticism and red-hot motor will help him transition to the NBA.
And yet, this is exactly Powell's point: he was a major talent who occupied a minor role at UNC, a team that struggled to defend the perimeter and generate offense against quality opponents. While Powell's struggles were in part his own fault — he never really developed into a dependable on-ball force — UNC definitely could have made better use of his excellent point-of-attack defense and dependable 3-point stroke.
When two five-star recruits enter your program, underperform relative to expectations, and take the first opportunity to leave — even without a strong NBA Draft guarantee, in Powell's case — it's generally a bad sign. So many prospects are returning to school for supermassive NIL packages instead of risking a second round pick or UDFA status in the pros. Powell is not. He was ready to get up out of there and prove his worth in a new environment.
On the other hand, there's Ian Jackson, who left for a more substantial role under Rick Pitino at St. John's. Jackson was frequently UNC's most dynamic scorer last season, but he was relegated to sixth man duties and an afterthought in the tournament. He was probably a better NBA prospect than Powell, at least for this draft class, but he picked up and left without really testing the waters. And that's after R.J. Davis left, which theoretically cleared a path for Jackson to take over primary duties in the Tar Heels backcourt. The window of opportunity opened wide and Jackson still walked.
Hubert Davis has another five-star recruit coming in next season in Caleb Wilson. We shall see if he can break the trend and restore some positive vibes in Chapel Hill. If UNC botches another top prospect, however, it's fair to wonder how long it will be until recruits simply stop picking the Tar Heels — or until UNC opts to go in a new direction at head coach.