Exploring the Pittsburgh Steelers possible Wild Card Round opponents
By DJ Dunson
Despite all the negativity swirling arounf the Pittsburgh Steelers, a mental health day on Sunday is what the team and its fans needed. Even from their couches, the Steelers were indirectly involved with the trappings of Week 17’s Sunday slate. The deceptive video of Kenny Pickett throwing himself to the ground while attempting a pass which never left his hand has been looped ad nauseum throughout Western Pennsylvania.
In reality, Pickett’s throwing arm was clipped, and he played well on Sunday, but that won't stop Steelers fans from getting a kick out of the video. It’s the placebo Steeler Nation deserved. For instance, Denver’s overtime loss to the Cincinnati Bengals came with consequences for the Black and Gold. The only positive is that it guarantees Pittsburgh can’t slip to the No. 7 seed.
Denver’s eighth loss puts them two games behind Pittsburgh with one game remaining on the schedule. Playing Buffalo would have been the worst-case scenario for the Steelers and that darkest timeline could have come to pass if Cincinnati had lost the last two games on its schedule.
Alas, there are now three possibilities for the Steelers Wild Card opponent. Let’s explore what the Steelers could be up against in the Wild Card round.
No. 3 Seed: If the Baltimore Ravens lose to the Cleveland Browns and the Steelers win, the Steelers will host a playoff game in the Wild Card round. Their likely opponent would be the Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert has been great, but deemphasized in former Ravens coordinator Greg Roman’s offense. He has thrown for half as many touchdowns as Joe Burrow, achieved career-lows in per-game passing yards and his 21 endzone deposits are only slightly more than the 20 he threw in 2023 when he played just 13 games. Before being placed on injured reserve in late November, J.K. Dobbins was on pace for his first 1,000-yard season. Dobbins returned in Week 17 after missing the last month of the season and tacked on 76 yards and a touchdown.
Justin Herbert missed the second half of Los Angeles’ Week 4 loss to the Steelers, while Justin Fields game-managed. Joe Alt joined Rashawn Slater on the offensive line and the pair was more protective of Herbert in the pocket than a bank vault stacked with gold bricks. The Chargers offense was in the negative allowing the defense to wreak havoc. Slaters struggled against the lightning-quick Nick Herbig, surrendering two sacks, but most of the season, they have given Justin Herbert ample time to throw.
Herbert currently ranks fifth in the league in intended air yards per pass attempt and has been incredibly efficient despite having fewer weapons than Pittsburgh. Slot receiver Ladd McConkey has been a revelation, but the 30 dropped passes by Chargers receivers is tied for fifth. The Harbaugh Chargers run a game script centered around the run first and second, but the threat of the pass opens up their offense. Pittsburgh's defense wouldn't be able to expect too many takeaways with Herbert, either. He’s thrown only three picks all season.
No. 5 seed: Should the Chargers lose next week or the Steelers, and Ravens win, Pittsburgh would be locked into the No. 5 seed against the league’s worst division champ, the Houston Texans. When we last saw the Texans, they were being demolished by the Baltimore Ravens in the Beyonce Bowl’s pregame and postgame show on Netflix. The Texans' second-half offense has the inverse problem as Pittsburgh's groggy first halves.
In totality, this is a much different Steelers team than the one that took the league by storm a year ago. C.J. Stroud resembled a seasoned vet as a rookie. However, throughout his sophomore slump, he’s performed like a struggling rook.
Stroud is still capable of conjuring up quarterback alchemy, but injuries throughout his receiving corps have clearly affected the downfield passing attack. He could recapture his 2023 form in a win-or-go-home scenario, but the Steelers would have to like their odds if this were their opponent next week.
No. 6 seed: Another byproduct of the Broncos loss is that the Bengals now have reason to play their starters in Week 18. If Joe Burrow muscles Cincy to a win over a spiraling Steelers team that is struggling to tackle, score in the red zone, avoid third downs, and sustain drives, wins by the Chargers and Baltimore would send Pittsburgh on the road for a first-round matchup against the Ravens. The Steelers should still be favored at home against a team they already beat on the road. The pass defense is still the league’s most porous. In week 17, they allowed Bo Nix to complete a 30-yard heave in the endzone during the waning seconds to push Cincinnati into overtime.
As the six seed, they’ll face a rubber match with the Ravens. Baltimore would be favored given the way Lamar Jackson is throwing the football, Derrick Henry is running, the secondary has stiffened up, and Justin Tucker have jelled in the final month, but when the Ratbirds and Steelers link up, the fireworks are unpredictable.