Fantasy Football 2024: Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 11

These are the tough lineup calls that can help make or break your fantasy football squad in Week 11.
Baltimore Ravens v Cleveland Browns
Baltimore Ravens v Cleveland Browns / Lauren Leigh Bacho/GettyImages
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Welcome to Week 11 of the NFL and fantasy football season. Last week was a mixed bag for this space, with Sam Darnold going all Sam Darnold, while Chuba Hubbard went off in a big way. I also got a little too cute going against Calvin Ridley and Marvin Harrison Jr. Both had tough matchups, but their usage, especially Ridley's, has been too good to sit. Overall, we turned out okay though. So let's take another swing at some start/sits for Week 11.

If you’d like to take my advice, it won’t be hard to transfer these thoughts into lineup decisions. To give me a baseline, I’ll use FantasyPros PPR Expert Consensus Rankings rankings as my guide. 

Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 11

​​QBs I like more than consensus

Jared Goff, Lions vs. Jaguars

Goff has been extremely efficient this season, but has only finished in the Top 12 fantasy quarterbacks three times. Then last week Goff went on a turnover spree, throwing five interceptions against the Texans. Thankfully this week he gets a matchup against the Jaguars that should help him bounce back fairly easily.

The Jaguars have allowed eight quarterbacks to finish higer than QB12 this season, and they've only faced ten! Sorry Sam Darnold and Deshaun Watson. They've allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the season to go along with being ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA and EPA per dropback. The Lions have the weapons to efficiently cut through this defense and give Goff a nice fantasy number in Week 11.

Russell Wilson, Steelers vs. Ravens

Wilson is coming off a three touchdown game against the Commanders and should be asked to throw even more against their division rival, the Ravens. Baltimore has the perfect setup for opposing passing games to thrive. First, their offense averages 31.8 points and 440.2 yards per game, the best in the league in both categories. That scoring then forces teams to throw more than they'd like, as their opponents average the most passing attempts, completions, and passing yards per game, which of course turns into big fantasy points.

Wilson has now started three games for the Steelers this season, and has finished QB3, QB24, and QB9. He's thrown six touchdowns to one interception and rushed in another for a score. The matchups haven't been that difficult, but we know this one won't be either, at least for fantasy.

QBs I like less than consensus

Jordan Love, Packers at Bears

Love throws the ball enough and has enough good receivers to eventually put up good fantasy numbers, but this week is going to be tough. The Bears have allowed only one quarterback to finish as QB12 or better this season and he had to hit a game-winning Hail Mary to accomplish that. They rank 6th in pass defense DVOA and 2nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Love is a player who could buck that trend, but the Bears offense has been so poor, I don't see Love needing to throw the ball a ton in this one. The Bears are weaker against the run than pass, which should set this up as a low-scoring Josh Jacobs game.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs at Bills

Mahomes has put up better numbers over the last two weeks, but his upside is no longer QB1 each week and you're just hoping for a Top 10 finish at this point. Unfortunately, the Bills pass defense has allowed just one quarterback to finish that high, and it was Lamar Jackson, who completed just 13 passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns. Of course, he added a bunch of fantasy points as a runner as well, but we can't expect that from Mahomes.

RBs I like more than consensus

Nick Chubb, Browns at Saints

Chubb hasn't been good since returning from his latest devastating knee injury. He's averaging just 2.7 yards a carry on 43 attempts through three games. Those games have come against the Bengals, Ravens and Chargers. As far as fantasy ponts allowed to running backs, those teams currently rank 8th, 9th, and 3rd. At least he hasn't beeen getting stopped by the worst in the league. And this week, he gets the worst, or at least close to the worst, in the Saints.

New Orleans has given up nine rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown to running backs over their last five games. They rank 31st in both run defense DVOA and EPA. They have very little offense at the moment, meaning the Browns won't need to throw the ball a ton in a game they should at least be close. Chubb should get plenty of opportunities in a good matchup.

Kareem Hunt, Chiefs vs. Bills

The Bills have given up 10 fantasy Top 12 finishes so far this season. Only Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Arizona have given up more and they are all on bye this week. We probably don't have much more time with Kareem Hunt as the lead back in Kansas City, but this week I expect another big workload for him and in a good matchup.

Hunt hadn't seen a ton of targets this season, that is until last week when he got 10 and caught seven for 63 yards. The hope is that that usage rolls over against the Bills, who have been really bad at stopping receiving backs. On the year they've given up the most recptions, yards and touchdowns to running backs through the air.

RBs I like less than consensus

Najee Harris, Steelers vs. Ravens

Harris has played well this season, but he's not at a caliber that he must be kept on the field when Jaylen Warren and Cordarelle Patterson are also healthy. This week against a good Ravens run defense, I expect Warren to see work in passing downs and Patterson to continue to see a smattering of touches. With the Ravens ranking fourth in rush defense DVOA and 2nd in EPA, plus Harris' workload not guaranteed, I'm officially worried about his upside this week.

Tony Pollard, Titans vs. Vikings

Pollard is playing very well this season, but he's on a bad team and now he has Tyjae Spears back to siphon off touches. But more importantly, he faces a Vikings defense that ranks as the best in the league against the run in DVOA and EPA, while giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs. This is a matchup to avoid if possible.

WRs I like more than consensus

Quentin Johnston, Chargers vs. Bengals

The Bengals have allowed 11 wide receivers to finish in the weekly fantasy Top 12 for the position. Only two other teams have allowed more. The Bengals rank 27th in pass defense DVOA and 29th in EPA. The Chargers, when needed, aren't against throwing the ball with Justin Herbert and this week they may need to against the Bengals strong offense.

Quentin Johnston was a punch line last season and this offseason, but he's stepped up in his sophomore year. Injuries have slowed him down, but when on the field he's making plays, especially in the end zone, where he has five touchdowns in seven games.

Cedric Tillman, Browns vs. Saints

Tillman has stepped up in a big way since Amari Cooper was shipped to Buffalo and Jameis Winston stepped in for the injured Deshaun Watson. Over the last three games, he's caught 21-of-32 targets for 255 yards and three touchdowns. Those are WR1 numbers. The Saints just traded away Marshon Lattimore, so they have that void and they've ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to the position the season. Don't worry about getting Tillman in there over seasoned receivers this week.

WRs I like less than consensus

Jordan Addison, Vikings vs. Titans

The Titans pass defense has played well this season, as they've allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Jordan Addison has been inconsistent, with just one week finishing higher than WR19. And now that T.J. Hockenson is back, his target share, which was already low, will continue to be poor. At this point, Addison still has upside but is going to lack consistency. When tough matchups arise, I'll likely lean toward sitting him.

Michael Pittman, Colts at Jets

Anthony Richardson is back after Joe Flacco flopped for two games. Richardson's inaccuracy problems will likely downgrade all the wide receivers for the Colts, but at this point, I think you can let Pittman go. He missed last week with a finger and back injury but looks like he'll be able to play this week. His lingering back injury coupled with Josh Downs strong play and Richardson's accuracy trouble is not something that looks like it will get right soon. Add in a tough matchup with the Jets secondary and I'm out.

TEs I like more than consensus

Will Dissly, Chargers vs. Bengals

The Bengals rank 29th in allowing fantasy points to tight ends and 25th in DVOA against the position. I like this game to elevate Justin Herbert and the Chargers passing attack, as the Bengals are sixth in points scored per game compared to the Chargers at 19th. On the season they haven't played many strong offenses, with the Chiefs being the best. They'll need to step up their offense to compete.

Will Dissly has taken over as the lead tight end and he's seen a good workload since Week 6. The results haven't been great, but he has a 21% target share during that span and I expect this week those targets go up in total, while his recent usage around the goal line should lead to a touchdown sooner than later.

Hunter Henry, Patriots vs. Rams

The Rams are allowing the second-most yards per reception to tight ends along with ranking 24th in fantasy points allowed. This is a game where the Rams should get a lead and push Drake Maye and company to throw the ball more than usual.

Henry had a dud last week against a good Bears defense but should be able to get back on track this week in an easier matchup. Before last week, Henry had finished TE7, TE6, TE19, and TE11 and that was all with just one touchdown. He's getting plenty of targets and receptions to have a good floor in PPR this week.

TEs I like less than consensus

Jake Ferguson, Cowboys vs. Texans

The Cooper Rush era started off about as bad as it possibly could. He threw for 45 yards on 23 attempts against the Eagles. It was as ugly as it sounds. The leading receiver on the day was none other than Jake Ferguson, who caught 4-of-5 targets for 24 yards. This week they'll face a Texans team that tanks first in DVOA against tight ends and also first in points allowed to the position. It doesn't look great for him in Dallas.

Mike Gesicki, Bengals vs. Chargers

Gesicki has put up some good games this season with Tee Higgins out and the Bengals also lost tight end Erick All, which should help Gesicki see more snaps. Unfortunately, last week a good amount of the tight-end targets went to Tanner Hudson. Hudson ended up scoring and putting up better overall numbers than Gesicki. This week there's a chance Tee Higgins returns and Hudson only helped his case last week. The Chargers also rank 6th in DVOA against tight ends, which dilutes his upside even more.

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