Fantasy Football 2024: Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 16

Welcome to Week 16 of the fantasy football (and NFL) season! We are in the thick of the fantasy playoffs and injuries and quarterback changes are making things tough on us. I for one am not happy that Jameis Winston has been benched, as he had helped one of my dynasty team's players, Jerry Jeudy, to a monster fantasy reawakening. Alas, it was not to be. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the new starter and he just hasn't shown enough to give me any hope that Jeudy can keep up his numbers, even in a great matchup with the Bengals. We all have crosses to bear I suppose! Hopefully, your team has Jahmyr Gibbs and not David Montgomery! And good luck!

If you’d like to take my advice, it won’t be hard to transfer these thoughts into lineup decisions. To give me a baseline, I’ll use FantasyPros PPR Expert Consensus Rankings rankings as my guide. 

Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 16

​​QBs I like more than consensus

Aaron Rodgers, Jets vs. Rams

Rodgers has stepped up the last two weeks to deliver useful fantasy finishes. Asking for three in a row might be asking for too much, but the Rams have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. One of those games had Josh Allen accounting for six touchdowns! Rodgers isn't Allen, but he has some momentum and will play at home against a an overall poor defense traveling cross-country.

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers at Cowboys

Mayfield returns to his home state to take on a Cowboys defense that ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season. Dallas is just trying to get out of the season, while the Buccaneers lead the AFC South and are looking to keep that led, as it may be the only way into the playoffs. There's no reason to think Mayfield won't again put up strong numbers in such a good matchup.

QBs I like less than consensus

Brock Purdy, 49ers at Dolphins

Purdy hasn't been bad this year by any stretch of the imagination, but he's not putting up big numbers and he's coming off a home game against the Rams where he was awful. Now the 49ers travel to Miami to take on a defense that has given up the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs vs. Texans

Mahomes has been putting up better numbers of late, but an ankle sprain and a matchup with the Texans is going to be difficult to overcome. The Texans rank first in pass defense DVOA and just shut down Tua Tagovailoa last week after he had been on a hot streak. The Texans are also ninth-best at hurrying quarterbacks this season and Mahomes was under duress the majority of the time last week against the Browns. This is a situation to fade if possible.

RBs I like more than consensus

Jerome Ford, Browns vs. Bengals

Nick Chubb suffered a broken foot last week, which pushed Ford back into the lead-back role. Ford took advantage, as he put up 104 total yards on just nine touches. The Bengals should get a lead in this matchup, which isn't great for Ford, but they have been weak against the run, ranking 27th in DVOA.

Bucky Irving, Buccaneers vs. Cowboys

Irving was questionable coming into last week's game but still managed to lead the way with 113 total yards on 17 touches. The Cowboys are worse against the run than pass and Cooper Rush isn't going to transform into Dan Marino overnight. That should set the Buccaneers up to run the ball often against the 28th-ranked team against the run in DVOA.

RBs I like less than consensus

Najee Harris, Steelers at Ravens

Th Steelers were able to beat the Ravens in Pittsburgh and Harris had 93 total yards on 23 touches back in Week 11. That win was helped tremendously by the presence and success of George Pickens, but Pickens most likely won't be there this week due to a hamstring injury. We saw how awful the Steelers offense was without Pickens last week against the Eagles as Harris totaled 21 yards on seven touches. All signs point to Harris having little or no room to run this week, while Jaylen Warren will continue to cut into his receiving work.

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs vs. Texans

Pacheco just hasn't had it since returning from his injury and that's pushed him to share work with Kareem Hunt. Add in the fact that the Texans have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, and I'm going to shy away from Pacheco if I can.

WRs I like more than consensus

Malik Nabers, Giants at Falcons

Nabers continues to put up good numbers despite an awful group of quarterbacks throwing the ball at him. He's WR10 on the season in PPR leagues and remains a top play in PPR leagues through the fantasy playoffs. The touchdowns may not be there, but he hasn't dipped below five receptions since Week 7, giving him a good floor to go with his upside when he does find the end zone.

The Falcons are a prime defense to target, as they rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 26th in pass defense DVOA. They also allow the most touchdowns to wide receivers, with 20 on the season.

Jakobi Meyers, Raiders vs. Jaguars

Meyers hasn't hit like I thought he would over the last few games, but he's still getting great target numbers with 15, 11, 10 and 9 over the last four. And this week he gets a strong matchup with the Jaguars. I also like that Aiden O'Connell will return and they're at home. On the season, the Jaguars rank last in pass defense DVOA and 30th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.

WRs I like less than consensus

Tank Dell, Texans at Chiefs

Dell has not lived up to his rookie year despite Stefon Diggs' season ending early due to an injury. The poor offensive line play has something to do with C.J. Stroud and Dell not getting together, but whatever it is, it has killed Dell's fantasy upside this season. He hasn't finished higher than WR14 in any given week and hasn't finished higher than WR34 over the last five games. His usage has also gone down of late, with an average of just over four targets per game over the last four. Nothing is pointing toward this being his time to break out.

DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs vs. Texans

The Texans pass defense is led by Derick Stingley and you want nothing to do with him. Hopkins could see Stingley more than we'd like and will likely need a score to be worth starting. And even with touchdowns in Week's 12 and 14, he still didn't manage big games, as the Chiefs offense isn't propping any single player up on a consistent basis.

TEs I like more than consensus

Pat Freiermuth, Steelers at Ravens

Freiermuth has seen a nice bump in production with George Pickens out and he'll get another chance this week against the Ravens. He's caught a touchdown pass in three straight and the Ravens have been giving to tight ends this year. I expect the Ravens to get a lead in this one and for Russell Wilson to look toward Freiermuth as his most-trusted target this weekend.

Brenton Strange, Jaguars at Raiders

With Evan Engram out, Brenton Strange had a huge PPR day against the Jets last week. He caught 11-of-12 targets for 73 yards, which helped him finish as the No. 2 tight end on the week. This week he gets an even better matchup with the Raiders, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. There's no doubt that it is scary starting Strange in the fantasy playoffs, but he was a second round pick this year and isn't just some schlub asked to block all game.