Fantasy Football 2024: Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 17
By Chet Gresham
Welcome to Week 17 of the NFL season. If you are still playing, you are likely in your fantasy championship game. Congratulations! At this point you might have an idea as to what kind of game you need from your fantasy players, so be sure to go with safe or risky, but high upside players, depending on what you believe you'll need to win this week. The idea that you stick with your studs only works if your studs always put up good games and most don't.
If you’d like to take my advice, it won’t be hard to transfer these thoughts into lineup decisions. To give me a baseline, I’ll use FantasyPros PPR Expert Consensus Rankings rankings as my guide.
Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 17
QBs I like more than consensus
Bo Nix, Broncos at Bengals
Nix is coming off one of his worst stretches since the beginning of the season, but playing the Bengals is usually a nice reprieve from competent defenses. The good news is that the Broncos dont have much at running back and will need to throw plenty with their own defense playing worse of late and the Bengals offense plying their best ball of the season. I'd expect some mistakes from Nix, but the Bengals continue to give up huge numbers to competent quarterbacks, ranking 29th in fantasy points allowed to the position this year.
Bryce Young, Panthers at Buccaneers
Young had his most passing yards of the season when he took on the Buccaneers back in Week 13. He ended up as QB8 on the week and should be in store for another game where he can reach for Top 10 status. Young has been running more of late, which hs raised his fantasy floor by a good margin. He now has three rushing touchdowns in his last four games and the Buccaneers have allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks on the season.
QBs I like less than consensus
Kyler Murray, Cardinals at Rams
The Rams gave up six total touchdowns to Josh Allen in Week 14, but have actually been holding opposing quarterbacks down outside of that explosion. Recently they've limited Brock Purdy, Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Hurts, and Tua Tagovailoa all under 13 fantasy points. Murray has just one rushing touchdown over his last five games, including four touchdowns to six interceptions during that span. At this point we likely need a big rushing day from Murray, which isn't out of the realm of possibilities, but also hasn't happened enough to count on.
Aaron Rodgers, Jets at Bills
In Week 15 Rodgers had his best fantasy day, finishing as the No. 4 fantasy quarterback of the week. It has been his only single-digit fantasy finish for the whole season. He followed up that game with a QB22 day against the Rams. The Bills defense has had some holes of late, but they'll be in Orchard Park and the weather calls for hard rain throughout. I can be fine with Josh Allen in incliment weather, but Rodgers is super old and probably thinks the rain is manufactured by the Illuminati.
RBs I like more than consensus
Bucky Irving, Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Irving continues to get a big chunk of the running back work both on the ground and through the air. His ability to gain touches in both aspects of the offense, and the goalline, has been key to his fantasy floor being extremely high despite sharing touches with Rachaad White. This week he'll face the poor Panthers run defense, which has allowed 2,116 rushing yards to running backs, which is by far the highest number in the league.
Tyjae Spears, Titans at Jaguars
Spears has seen the most snaps between himself and Tony Pollard over the last two games with Pollard not 100% He's taken advantage of those games, scoring four touchdowns. He's getting work around the goal line, which has helped him getin into the end zone, but he's done much of his damage as a receiver. The good news is that the Jaguars have allowed the third-most receptions to running backs this season.
RBs I like less than consensus
Rico Dowdle, Cowboys at Eagles
The Eagles look like they'll be without Jalen Hurts, while the Cowboys will be without CeeDee Lamb. This game could be a slog, with the Eagles defense continuing their strong play. Dowdle could see more work this week based on the game plan, but without Lamb, the offense will likely have a hard time moving the ball. Dowdle should get enough work to be a flex play if you are hurting for starters, but his upside is quite low.
Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots vs. Chargers
Stevenson's errors in last week's game against the Bills have head coach Jared Mayo considering benching him for Antonio Gibson. Stevenson has been the better runner, but turnovers aren't something the Patriots can have. I expect Stevenson still gets an okay amount of work, but the Chargers lead the league in fewest rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs, so any cut in his work could really hurt this week.
Audric Estime, Broncos at Bengals
Estime played well last week, rushing nine times for 48 yards and a touchdown. The trouble is, Jaleel McLaughlin will be back this week and the Bengals should be able to get a lead and force Bo Nix and friends into hurry up, which would not be Estime's job. There will be too many mouths to feed and a likely poor game script this week for Estime.
WRs I like more than consensus
Juaun Jennings, 49ers vs. Lions
This game sets up well for Brock Purdy and the passing game, as the Lions are still putting up big points, but their defense is dealing with injuries. Even before injuries slowed the Lions defense down, they were still giving up good fantasy points through the air, so it isn't as if they are close to turning the corner. I like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle as well, but Jennings has a great shot for a big game as he has been the most consistent receiver for the team all year.
Adam Thielen, Panthers at Buccaneers
Thielen has been consistent since returning from his early season hamstring injury. His best game though came against the Buccaneers in Week 13 when he caught eight passes for 99 yards and a touchdown. The targets should be there again this week and I expect another strong outing.
WRs I like less than consensus
Jerry Jeudy, Browns vs. Dolphins
Jeudy completely went off with Jameis Winston behind center, but those days are over for now. Last week with Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting, he had just two receptions for 20 yards. Thompson-Robinson is set to get the start again this week against a good Dolphins secondary. I have no faith in DTR being able to get him the ball consistently.
Khalil Shakir, Bills vs. Jets
The Jets don't have quite the defense we expected, but they have limited wide receivers well this season. They're top six in receptions, yards, and touchdowns allowed to the position. And if this game is as rainy as the forecast looks, it really could be a mess for the passing games. Shakir has been the best receiver for the Bills, but Josh Allen still spreads the ball around well, which can leave Shakir out at times.
TEs I like more than consensus
Hunter Henry, Patriots vs. Dolphins
Henry remains the No. 1 target for Drake Maye and Maye looks like he is going to be a plus starter in the league. Maye gave Henry four red zone targets last week that led to a touchdown. The Patriots offense isn't high-powered enough to give Henry a lot of touchdown chances, but we know he's going to be used when they get down there. And, the Dolphins have given up the seventh-most receptions to the position this year.
Chig Okonkwo, Titans at Jaguars
Mason Rudolph has helped Okonkwo a ton over the last two games, as he's targeted him an amazing 21 times. Okonkwo has turned those targets into TE6 and TE2 finishes. This week he'll get a matchup with the Jaguars, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the position. It will be tough relying on him in the fantasy championship game, but if you are hurting at the position, give it a go.
feed