Fantasy Football 2024: Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 18

Welcome to the final start/sit article of the season! It's been fun trying to predict fantasy value for players from week to week this year. We got some right and plenty wrong, but hopefully had a net positive. This final week is always a test for fantasy players who are still playing in Week 18 or more likely playing other games like DFS.

There isn't as much drama as we usually get in the final week this season, as most of the playoff teams from each division have already clinched a spot and many don't have much room to rise up the playoff seedings. But, there are a few teams still trying to make moves in this last weekend of the regular season.

This week we'll look more at the "starts" than the "sits," as there will be plenty of sits due to teams resting their starters. But before we get to the starts, let's take a look at which teams are 100 percent resting players, which might rest players, which are 100 percent playing to win and eliminated teams who will play starters, but could give some younger players more snaps.

Teams resting players in Week 18

Kansas City Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams
Philadelphia Eagles

These teams are resting players. Just stay far away unless a coach says they want to see a player get a lot of work for some reason.

Teams that could rest their starters

Houston Texans

The Texans have nothing to play for as they have the No. 4 seed locked up, but head coach DeMeco Ryans was non-committal when asked about resting them. You can't risk starting any Texans against the Titans this week though.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers need a win over the Raiders for a shot at the No. 5 seed, which would put them against the No. 4 Texans instead of the likely No. 2 Ravens. That's a pretty big difference if you take the Raiders drubbing of the Texans to heart.

To get the 5 seed, the Chargers need to win in Vegas on Sunday and need a Steelers loss to the Bengals on Saturday. Since that AFC North game will have completed by the time the Chargers play, we'll know for sure if they still have a shot at the No. 5 seed or not. So keep a wait and see eye on this one.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers need a win over the Bears and a Commanders loss to the Cowboys to move from the No. 7 seed to the No. 6 seed. Head coach Matt LeFleur is talking as if starters will play, but we have to be wary of them resting at some point. As it is right now, it could be the difference between playing the Eagles if they keep the seventh seed or the Rams if they gain the sixth seed.

Washington Commanders

The Commanders have clinched a playoff berth, but a win over the Cowboys would keep them in the sixth seed, while a loss could put them in the seventh seed. As it is right now, it could be the difference between playing the Eagles if they finish with the seventh seed or the Rams if they finish with the sixth seed.

Teams that will play all out for sure

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Both teams have clinched a playoff spot, but the winner of this game gets the No. 1 seed and the loser gets the No. 5 seed. A bye week and home-field advantage throughout or needing to win three road games to get to the Super Bowl? There's no doubt both teams will play their starters.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos only need to beat Carson Wentz and the Chiefs backups to clinch a playoff spot. They will play all out.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins can get into the playoffs with a win over the Jets and a Broncos loss to the resting Chiefs. They will play all out for the small chance.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals need a lot of help, but they can still get in with a win over the Steelers on Saturday and losses by the Dolphins to the Jets and the Broncos to the resting Chiefs. They will play their starters.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have clinched a playoff spot, but they have room to move around in the seeding, as they still have a shot at the AFC North title with a win and a Ravens loss to the Browns. Of course, the Ravens should destroy the Browns and they play before the Steelers on Saturday. But, even if the Ravens win, the Steelers could still get the No. 5 seed with a win, which would pit them against the Texans instead of the Chargers or Ravens. I expect that's the hope in Pittsburgh.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay needs to beat the Saints to clinch the NFC South or have the Atlanta Falcons lose to the Panthers. Since they play at the same time, both the Bucs and Falcons will have motivation to win.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons need to beat the Panthers and have the Buccaneers lose to the Saints to get in. They'll play all out.

Eliminated from playoff contention

Carolina Panthers
Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts
Las Vegas Raiders
Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots
New York Jets
New York Giants
San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals
New Orleans Saints
Chicago Bears

Week 18 Starts

Quarterbacks

Bo Nix, Broncos vs. Chiefs

Nix is QB9 on the season and has 20 touchdown passes since Week 8. He's not perfect, but he's been playing well on average and has an aptitude for getting the ball in the end zone. And this week he takes on a Chiefs team that will rest starters, as they have the No. 1 seed wrapped up. We can't expect huge numbers unless Carson Wentz can really get some offense going, but the Broncos only need to win the game and they're in the playoffs. Nix will get his, especially against a team that usually is better against the run than pass.

Russell Wilson, Steelers vs. Bengals

The last time these two teams met in Cincinnati in Week 13, Wilson threw for 414 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception in a 44-38 win. We can't expect those numbers, but this game will be in Pittsburgh and the Steelers have incentive to win, even if the Ravens win earlier in the day. Both teams need wins, and we know how explosive the Bengals offense has been, which should push this game to as many points as they can muster.

Running backs

Tony Pollard, Titans vs. Texans

Pollard has incentives of up to $400k that are reachable this week against a Texans team that is locked into the No. 4 seed no matter what they do. Pollard missed last week due to injuries, which gave Tyjae Spears the start, but Spears ended up suffering a brain injury that looks like it will keep him out this week. Pollard did get in limited practices to start the week and will likely make a go of it to see if he can gain 84 rushing yards for $250k and two more touchdowns for $200k.

Michael Carter, Cardinals vs. 49ers

Carter played pretty well in relief of James Conner last week, rushing 13 times for 70 yards in their loss to the Rams, while adding two receptions for 11 yards. The 49ers run defense is their weakness, as they rank 24th in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season. They've allowed a 100+ yard rusher in each of their last five games. James Conner and Trey Benson have also been put on I.R., so Carter is in line for a big workload in a good matchup.

Wide receivers

Jameson Williams, Lions vs. Vikings

This game is set up for some fireworks, as both teams desperately want to win, both teams are weakest against the pass, and the over/under is over 56 points! Detroit won their first matchup in Week 7 31-29 and I expect similar points this week. Williams had just one catch for negative yards for that game, but it was alos the game right before his two-game PED suspension. I expect he'll be much more involved this time around, as he has been a major part of the offense of late, securing a touchdown in three straight.

Jalen McMillan, Buccaneers vs. Saints

McMillan won't be able to keep up his recent touchdown numbers longterm, but he's the No. 2 receiver on a pass-first offense that puts up plenty of points. He's now caught six touchdowns in his last four games, which includes two, two-touchdown games. The Buccaneers offense is one I want pieces of this week, as the Bucs control their path to the playoffs as long as they can win.

Tight ends

Pat Freiermuth, Steelers at Bengals

Freiermuth had the best game of his season against the Bengals when he caught 6-of-7 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown in Week 13. Those aren't great numbers for a player's best game, but the game environment and the matchup set up a real possibility for a similar outcome this week.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons vs. Panthers

Pitts has been the pits for most of his short football career, at least compared to his draft spot and hype. But, last week we saw Michael Penix and Pitts hook up for a touchdown and the second-most targets on the team. The Panthers have also given up the most touchdowns and fantasy points to the tight end position this season. He's risky to be sure, but let's give him one last shot in a plus matchup.