Fantasy Football 2024: Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 6

Week 5 is in the books and it's time to move on to Cincinnati, or wherever you're off to. This week we'll get players back from the Lions, Chargers, Eagles and Titans and we'll lose players from the Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins and Vikings to the bye. Navigating these bye weeks can be tough, but we were built for this! Or, we just crawl into the fetal position and wait for the pain to stop.

Week 6 has plenty of good game environments, with four games totaling at 49 points or higher -- Ravens vs. Commanders (52.5), Packers vs. Cardinals (49.5), Cowboys vs. Lions (52.5), and Giants vs. Bengals (49).

If you’d like to take my advice, it won’t be hard to transfer these thoughts into lineup decisions. To give me a baseline, I’ll use FantasyPros PPR Expert Consensus Rankings rankings as my guide. 

​​QBs I like more than consensus

Caleb Williams, Bears vs. Jaguars

Williams had the best game of his rookie season last week and gets to back it up with the best matchup in the league right now. He did have an easy matchup with the Panthers in Week 5 at home, but he took advantage, throwing for over 300 yards and two touchdowns and rushing five times for 34 yards to finish as QB6.

The good news is that the Jaguars pass defense has been worse than the Panthers pass defense so far, ranking dead last in pass defense DVOA and EPA. They've also allowed the second-most passing yards and 10 touchdowns to zero interceptions. They also have some decent pieces on offense, who could keep this game close enough to keep Williams passing.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys vs. Lions

Teams often need to pass against the Lions because they are trailing late in the game. It hasn't led to them giving up many touchdowns, but they have allowed the third-most passing attempts per game and the sixth-most passing yards, which has led to them giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Despite not putting up big numbers this season, Prescott is QB8 in fantasy and has been Top-13 in his last three games, including a QB2 finish. The Cowboys defense is nowhere near what it was the last few years and they are missing two of their top defensive players — Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence.

QBs I like less than consensus

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars at Bears

Lawrence is coming off a strong game last week where he finished as fantasy QB10, which was his first top-10 finish of the season. QB16 was his highest before that. Hopefully, he is on an upward trajectory, especially as he targets Brian Thomas more. But, he heads to Chicago this week to take on one of the best pass defenses in the league. On the season, Chicago has allowed just two passing touchdowns to six interceptions and ranks first and second in pass defense EPA and DVOA. It's a situation I would rather avoid this week if possible.

Josh Allen, Bills at Jets

Allen has had two great games and three not-great-in-any-way games. In his last two road games against the Ravens and Texans, he completed 25-of-59 passes for 211 yards and one touchdown. You can't get much worse than that, and now he has another road game, this time against the Jets. The Jets are first in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, 5th in pass defense EPA, and seventh in pass defense DVOA. It of course would be tough to sit Allen, but if you have another quarterback in a better spot, I could see benching Allen this week.

RBs I like more than consensus

D'Andre Swift, Bears vs. Jaguars

Swift started off as cold as a running back could, but he's come on strong the last couple of weeks. To illustrate, let's take a look at his fantasy finishes from Week 1 through 5 — RB44, RB33, RB45, RB3, RB2. Yes, those strong games came against the Rams and Panthers at home, but they get another home game, this time against the pathetic Jaguars defense.

Jacksonville has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to running backs this season. They've also given up the second most receptions and yards to running backs and rank 28th in DVOA against receiving backs.

Tank Bigsby, Jaguars at Bears

Bigsby has been great this year, especially compared to last year. He's seen some extra work of late due to Travis Etienne's shoulder injury and just because he's been playing so well. But, last week was his big breakout, as he rushed 13 times for 101 yards and two touchdowns. Etienne appears to be playing through his shoulder injury, which is probably good news for Bigsby again this week.

The Bears pass defense is one of the best in the league, but their run defense is middling at best. They rank 21st in run defense EPA, 30th in run defense DVOA, and 23rd in fantasy points allowed to running backs. The Jaguars will do their best to attack the path of least resistance, which should give Bigsby a decent workload in this one.

RBs I like less than consensus

Brian Robinson, Commanders at Ravens

Robinson scored two touchdowns last week and has been on a role this year. He is dealing with a knee injury which has kept him out of practice and likely limited his workload to just 7 carries and no receptions last week. It worked out last week, but the Ravens run defense is one of the best in the league. They lead the league in allowing just 48 rushing yards per week to running backs and rank third in rush defense DVOA and EPA. If I knew Robinson was 100 percent and would see his usual workload, I'd be more willing to start him, but as it is, I'd rather not if I have a better option.

Trey Sermon, Colts at Titans

With Jonathan Taylor out, Trey Sermon took over as the lead back role and scored a touchdown and caught six passes. Unfortunately, his underlying numbers don't look so hot, as he rushed 10 times for 38 yards and his six receptions went for just 25 yards. That came against a bad Jaguars defense and this week they stay on the road against a good Titans run defense.

Tennessee ranks fifth in run defense EPA and 10th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Besides the tough matchup, Sermon will also need to share touches with Tyler Goodson, who was better on a per-touch basis last week. Sermon should get enough work to be a flex play during bye weeks like this one, but I'm not optimistic.

WRs I like more than consensus

Terry McLaurin, Commanders at Ravens

Terry McLaurin started off slowly but has picked things up over the last three games, as he's topped 100 yards twice and scored two touchdowns. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and McLaurin have both come on strong and are at a point where McLaurin is a safe play and one with huge upside. Plus, the Commanders take on the Ravens, who have a great offense, great run defense and poor pass defense. That sets Daniels and McLaurin up for a big game.

Darius Slayton, Gants vs. Bengals

This pick depends on if Malik Nabers can be cleared of his concussion before Sunday night, but at this point, it doesn't look great, as he has yet to practice. If he can't go, Slayton would be in a good spot to repeat his numbers from last week with Nabers out, when he caught eight passes for 122 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals rank 30th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers, as they've given up good games to Zay Flowers, Dionte Johnson, Terry McLaurin, and Rashee Rice.

WRs I like less than consensus

Mike Evans, Buccaneers vs. Saints

Evans and Marshon Lattimore have a long-running feud that often boils over to fisticuffs, but overall, Evans has not done well against him and the Saints. He's only averaging three receptions for 52 yards per matchup and has found the end zone three times in 14 matchups. Plus, there's always a chance he ends up getting ejected for fighting. And, Lattimore has played well this season, as the Saints rank first in pass defense DVOA against No. 1 receivers.

Garrett Wilson, Jets vs. Bills

The Bills have had trouble offensively, but for the most part, have limited passing games well. Opposing wide receivers have scored the fifth-fewest fantasy points this season and they rank fifth in EPA and 10th in DVOA against the pass. Wilson had a nice game last week, but it took 22 targets and he ended up catching 13 for 101 yards and a touchdown. I doubt he'll see anywhere near 22 targets again this week in a game that could be low-scoring with two good defenses.

TEs I like more than consensus

Dalton Schultz, Texans vs. Patriots

The Texans are hurting with Nico Collins on I.R., which should open up more targets for other pass catchers like Schultz. It's also nice that the Patriots rank 28th in DVOA against the pass and against tight ends.

Pat Freiermuth, Steelers vs. Raiders

Freiermuth isn't getting a ton of volume, but he's scored in his last two games. He's also been efficient when he does get targets, so in a good matchup like this week, I'm on board. The Raiders rank 31st in DVOA against tight ends so far.

TEs I like less than consensus

Hunter Henry, Patriots vs. Texans

The Texans have been tough on tight ends this season, as they have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points and rank first in DVOA against the position. Henry had one big game but has been average for most of the season. We can't expect a repeat of his spike game in this matchup.