Fantasy Football 2024: Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 7

Welcome to Week 7 and a look at some players I like to start in fantasy football and some I'm not as fond of. Overall, it feels like NFL teams have found their groove or lack thereof, which helps us predict how they will do from week to week.

Of course, there are always changes and injuries that can completely flip the script. This week it looks like Russell Wilson will get the start over Justin Fields as they take on the Jets on Sunday Night Football. We'll also get Anthony Richardson instead of Joe Flacco for the Colts when they take on the Dolphins. These moves make for real changes in how offenses will play, and we can't be sure what those changes will entail.

We continue to learn each week, but sometimes we have to unlearn things quickly. Is Tucker Kraft a top-tier tight end or was he slightly lucky to finish as the fantasy TE1 two weeks in a row? I give my thoughts below, but these are the kinds of questions we must keep trying to answer as we move forward each week of fantasy football season.

If you’d like to take my advice, it won’t be hard to transfer these thoughts into lineup decisions. To give me a baseline, I’ll use FantasyPros PPR Expert Consensus Rankings rankings as my guide. 

Crucial fantasy football start/sit decisions for Week 7

​​QBs I like more than consensus

Drake Maye, Patriots vs. Jaguars (London)

At this point you start anywone against the Jaguars. Sure, Maye is a rookie and wasn't perfect in his first start, but he did throw three touchdowns and was willing to attack defenses more than Jacoby Brissett. He isn't a lock by any means, but he showed me enough to start him against a Jaguars defense that ranks last in pass defense EPA and DVOA and in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers vs. Ravens

Mayfield ranks second to Lamar Jackson in quarterback fantasy points and now they take each other on on Monday night. This game sets up extremely well for Mayfield, whose team is an underdog at home against a defense that shuts down the run and forces teams to pass because of their defense and due to their offense putting up points to get eads early.

The Ravens currently have allowed quarterbacks to score the third-most fantasy points in the league, while their run defense has givine up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs.

QBs I like less than consensus

Kyler Murray, Cardinals vs. Chargers

Murray hasn't played badly this year, but the team can't seem to get things going overall. This week they take on a Chargers team that has done a great job slowing down games, running the ball, and playing stout defense. The Chargers rank fourth in pass defense EPA and DVOA.

Murray is still a fringe starter, as his rushing ability can always get him over the hump i a tough matchup, but if you have two strong quarterbacks, take a hard look at the Non-Murray one.

Anthony Richardson, Colts vs. Dolphins

The Dolphins are middle of the road in DVOA and EPA against the pass, ranking 16th in both. But, they've given up the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season, allowing just three touchdown passes all season after facing Trevor Lawrence, Josh Allen, Geno Smith, Will Levis, and Jacoby Brissett. And only the pass-happy Smith topped 162 passing yards.

Richardson can get you points with his legs as well, but the Dolphins have allowed just 21 yards rushing and no rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. Richardson is returning from yet another injury he suffered while running with the ball, so he could be a bit more hesitant to take off this week as well.

RBs I like more than consensus

Tony Pollard, Titans vs. Bills

I don't love starting offensive players for the Titans, as Will Levis can throw a wrench into the offense more than we'd like, but with Tyjae Spears likely out, Pollard becomes a must-start in many leagues. Besides the likely bump in reps, the Bills run defense is their weakness, as they've allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this year.

J.K. Dobbins, Chargers vs. Cardinals

With Gus Edwards sent to I.R. last week, Dobbins saw season and career highs in usage in a tough matchup with the Broncos defense. He ended up rushing a career-high 25 times for 96 yards and a touchdown and caught two targets for six yards to get him over 100 total yards on the day.

This week he takes on a Cardinals defense that has been poor against the run and pass all season. They are statistically worse against the pass than run, but taking on the 23rd team in EPA against the run defense should be much easier than the Broncos, who rank 9th in run defense EPA after Dobbins did his work last week.

RBs I like less than consensus

Josh Jacobs, Packers vs. Texans

Jacobs has put up okay numbers this year, but nothing to write home about, as he's only finished higher than RB23 in one week this season when he finished RB11 against the sad Rams defense. This week he gets a Texans run defense that is Top 10 across the board statistically. Jacobs remains a flex play in most leagues, but his upside this week is lower than normal.

Any Buccaneers running back vs. Ravens

The Buccaneers have Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and Sean Tucker in the backfield, and Iriving and Tucker just put up a mountain of fantasy points on the Saints with White out with a foot injury. White's status this week is still unknown, but even if he doesn't play and Irving gets the start, this will be an uphill batter for the run game.

The Ravens have allowed the fewest rushing yards to running backs by a wide margin. Only two backs have totaled more than 10 rushing attempts in a game against them and none over 15. No back has totaled over 46 rushing yards in a game and they rank fourth in run defense EPA and DVOA so far.

WRs I like more than consensus

Xavier Legette, Panthers vs. Commanders

The Panthers are touchdown underdogs in this matchup and should be forced to throw, especially in the second half of the game. Diontae Johnson, the Panthers No. 1 receiver, is dealing with an ankle injury that has kept him out of the first two practices, so the rookie Legette could be in store for more work if Johnson can't go. Plus, the Commanders remain one of the worst pass defense in the league. They rank 28th in pass defense EPA, 29th in pass defense DVOA and 28th in fantasy points allowed to the position. If Johnson does play, Legette is still a start, but he loses some upside.

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins at Colts

You were probably going to start Hill this week already, but after seeing him finish WR54, WR57, WR51, and WR31 over the last four games, you are likely worried. Tua Tagovailoa won't return this week, as he is still on I.R. for a brain injury, so we get Snoop Huntley again. But, we did see Hill catch 6-of-10 targets against the Patriots in Week 5 and now coming off the bye, I expect Huntley and Hill to be more in tune with each other. Add in the Colts poor pass defense, where they rank 23rd in EPA, DVOA, and fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, and I think it's safer to start Hill than it has been of late.

WRs I like less than consensus

Amari Cooper, Browns vs. Titans

The Titans have allowed the fewest fantasy points in the league to outside receivers and Cooper will likley be still learning the playbook at kickoff. If he does play, it will be tempting to get him out there with Josh Allen, but I'd rather wait a week if possible.

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers vs. Chiefs

The Chiefs have been strong against outside receivers this season, as they've allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to them. Aiyuk plays outside for the most part and has just one strong game to his credit this year, against a poor Cardinals pass defense. I expect the 49ers to work the middle of the field with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, while also running the ball as usual.

TEs I like more than consensus

Hunter Henry, Patriots vs. Jaguars

The Jaguars have allowed the most touchdowns to tight end this season and the 29th fantasy points. Henry has been a non-factor outside of Week 2 when he had a huge day and last week when Drake Maye got his first start. Maye didn't target him a ton, but Henry was the second-most targeted player on the team and he scored a touchdown. That slight bump in work and this matchup make for a good streamer if available.

Cade Otton, Buccaneers vs. Ravens

The Buccaneers are going to throw the ball a lot against the Ravens, as they are underdogs and the Ravens defense is easier to throw on than pass. Otton has seen 27 targets over the last four weeks and caught a touchdown last week. He's not a lock by any means, but the Ravens rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends and Mike Evans isn't 100 percent.

TEs I like less than consensus

Tucker Kraft, Packers vs. Texans

Kraft put back-to-back fantasy TE1 weeks together, but last week he fell back down to earth with just two receptions for 13 yards on four targets. I expect he'll have other splash games, but he's still too low on the pecking order with four strong wide receivers ready to roll most weeks. This week they'll get a Texans defense that has been tough on tight ends, as they've held them to the third-fewest fantasy points per game.

Sam LaPorta, Lions vs. Vikings

LaPorta had a big touchdown catch last week off of a flea flicker against the Cowboys, but it was his only target of the game. He's now seen 5, 3, 2, 4, and 1 target each week for a total of 15 in five games. He's just not getting the work he did last season and a matchup with the Vikings tough defense isn't going to help him much this week. I'm staying away until his usage sees a boost.