Fantasy Football 2024: Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 8
By Chet Gresham
Welcome to Week 8 of the NFL season. If all the wide receivers on your fantasy team are still healthy, you probably are a necromancer of some sort and will need to set things right and balance the laws of nature after the season wraps. It has been a brutal season for wide receivers, as you probably know. But they don't give us the big bucks to quit and hide behing the shed, NO! They pay us the big bucks to take our lumps and keep on truckin'! And by "big bucks" I mean probably not that much money at all.
We have zero teams on bye this week, which is good, but that means they really pile them up in the coming weeks. But hopefully this week you have a few more options than you might usually. So let's get right to it. Here are my start/sits for Week 8.
If you’d like to take my advice, it won’t be hard to transfer these thoughts into lineup decisions. To give me a baseline, I’ll use FantasyPros PPR Expert Consensus Rankings rankings as my guide.
QBs I like more than consensus
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins vs. Cardinals
The Cardinals are a good team for Tagovailoa to meet in his first game back from his most recent concussion. They have been fourth-worst at pressuring the quarterback so far, which should give him clean pockets to work from. The Cardinals' pass defense is also the weak link of their defense, which should push them to throw more. In DVOA against the pass, they rank 29th, while they rank 10th against the run. The team has also given up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. I'd be more than willing to give him a start in his first game back.
Jameis Winston, Browns vs. Ravens
Winston is going to chuck the ball and give his receivers a chance to put up numbers. Just last week as the third quarterback in the game, Winston let it fly and threw the Browns only touchdown of the day. The Browns already like to throw the ball and against the Ravens they will be forced to throw the ball, as Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are going to put up points and the Ravens run defense is much better than their pass defense.
Last Monday night it looked like Baker Mayfield had given his fantasy backers a dud, but down big in the fourth quarter gave Mayfield plenty of time to put up big numbers as the Ravens let off the gas. Winston could easily be put in the same situation. Over the last three games Baltimore has allowed 10 passing touchdowns to three interceptions, while allowing an average of 344 passing yards per game.
QBs I like less than consensus
Marcus Mariota, Commanders vs. Bears
I don't see the Commanders risking Jayden Daniels this week in a tough matchup after he missed Wednesday and Thursday practices. I'd expect him to get some work on Friday and for the team to list him as questionable and then go with Mariota. Last week we saw Mariota put up a strong game in relief of the injured Daniels, but, they were playing the Panthers. Everything is better against the Panthers defense. The Bears on the other hand are one of the best defenses against the pass in the league, ranking second and first in pass defense DVOA and EPA. They also rank second-best in adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
If Daniels does end up playing, I would be wary of the results, as this would be his toughest matchup by far and he wouldn't be 100%. That doesn't mean I wouldn't start him, but if Ihappened to have another good quarterback with a better matchup, I'd think hard about sitting Daniels.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys at 49ers
Prescott hasn't put up his usual strong numbers this season. There are plenty of reasons for that, but heading to San Francisco to take on the 49ers isn't going to make things much better. The bye week could help them turn some things around, but I'm not overly optimistic. The 49ers have allowed more than one touchdown pass once this season and over the last three games, Kyler Murray, Geno Smith, and Patrick Mahomes have thrown two touchdowns to five interceptions against them.
RBs I like more than consensus
Javonte Williams, Broncos vs. Panthers
Williams hadn't done much this season until last week when he put up over 100 total yards and two touchdowns against the Saints bad run defense. He was aided by the fact that Spencer Rattler isn't that good and the Broncos defense is that good. We can't expect Bo Nix and the Broncos offense to get leads very often, but in situations where we have a good idea that their opponent isn't going to get a big lead and they have a weak run defense, well, that's Javonte's music.
This week they get a similar opponent in Carolina, as they have the worst run defense in the league and with Bryce Young at the helm, the worst offense in the league. That sets up perfectly for Williams, who has separated himself in workload over the last few games. He's a safe play despite his unsafe status of late.
J.K. Dobbins, Chargers vs. Saints
Dobbins should be in line for a big workload against the Saints this week and for many of the same reasons Javonte Williams put up good numbers against New Orleans, Dobbins should as well. The lack of offense with Spencer Rattler at the helm should keep this game close or help the Chargers to a lead. They are seven-point favorites, so this isn't a reach. We know the Chargers want to win on the ground and this is a week they should have little trouble doing so.
RBs I like less than consensus
Alexander Mattison, Raiders vs. Chiefs
Mattison has taken over the leadback role in Las Vegas and is getting enough work to have a decent floor for fantasy. Unfortunately, this week the Raiders take on a Chiefs team that has been winning in large part due to their defense.
So far, Kansas City has allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs in the league. They've allowed just two touchdowns and none through the air. Jordan Mason has rushed for the most yards against them with 58 last week. The Raiders just don't have the weapons to move down the field consistently against the Chiefs, which will likely keep Mattison out of the end zone
Tyrone Tracy Jr., Giants vs. Steelers
I like Tracy as a fantasy back worth starting more often than not, but against the Steelers on Monday night I'm not as sure. The Steelers rank third in both DVOA and EPA against the run, while no player has topped 88 rushing yards and they've allowed just three rushing touchdowns. Plus, Devin Singletary could see a few more touches this week if he was hindered at all by his groin injury last week.
WRs I like more than consensus
Romeo Doubs, Packers vs. Jaguars
The Jaguars are a bad defense, but they excel at being bad against the pass. Jordan Love should be able to get the ball to whoever he wants and lately, that has been Doubs. In his first four games, he averaged three receptions for 42 yards and no touchdowns. In his last two games, he's averaged 5.5 receptions for 71.5 yards and a touchdown. Is this because he complained and was suspended in Week 5 or is this just what the defense has been giving them? I'm not sure, but there has been a change and playing Doubs against the Jaguars is such a good matchup that the risk of him falling flat isn't bad.
Sterling Shepard, Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Trying to figure out who Baker Mayfield will favor at wide receiver with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans out is a difficult task. All three of Sterling Shepard, Jalen McMillan, and Trey Palmer should have some fantasy appeal depending on your league size and injury situation, but, the veteran Shepard is who I am leaning toward in PPR formats.
First off, the Falcons are weak against the pass, ranking 27th in pass defense DVOA and 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to receivers. Secondly, Shepard is a veteran slot receiver and appears most suited to take over an integral part of the Buccaneers offense. Godwin was injured with just seconds remaining in the game last week, so we didn't get to see what the team would prefer to do if Godwin wasn't available. It's a bit of a leap of faith, but Shepard is going to have a good opportunity this week.
WRs I like less than consensus
Diontae Johnson, Panthers vs. Broncos
This one is a bit of a no-brainer, as all the signs are flashing and pointing toward sitting Johnson this week. First off, he's hurt. Last week he didn't practice until Friday and ended up playing, but wasn't effective. This week he appears to be on a similar path and if he does play, his matchup is ugly. The Broncos as a whole have been top five in most pass defense metrics, but more important is how well Patrick Surtain has played against No. 1 wide receivers. Oh, and Andy Dalton is out this week after a car crash, giving Bryce Young another start. Young was historically bad before he was mercifully replaced by Dalton. Just stay away.
Chris Olave, Saints vs. Chargers
The Chargers have mostly shut down No. 1 wide receivers this season, ranking fourth-best in DVOA-adjusted fantasy points allowed to them. Overall they've been strong against the pass and with Spencer Rattler in and the Chargers hoping to control the clock with the run game, I don't have high hopes for a big Olave game.
There's no doubt he is the No. 1 receiver for Rattler and with Rashid Shaheed out, Olave should see targets. I'd want to start him still, especially if I'm weak at wide receiver, but we need to temper our expectations.
TEs I like more than consensus
David Njoku, Browns vs. Ravens
Njoku will have Jameis Winston throwing him the ball and Winston happens to be the quarterback that threw him a touchdown last week in garbage time. The Ravens are huge favorites in this game but are also weak against the pass and the tight end position. They've allowed the most total receptions and receiving yards to the position and rank 30th in DVOA-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends. I expect the Ravens get up early and Winston and Njoku pile up some PPR fantasy stats for your fake teams.
Cade Otton, Buccaneers vs. Falcons
We saw Otton get pelted with targets in garbage time last week after Mike Evans went down and now Godwin is also out, which should push even more consistent targets his way. The Buccaneers wide receiver backups aren't exactly world-beaters at this point either, which should solidify those targets for Otton. He doesn't have a lot of upside due to his catch-the-ball, get-hit, fall-down approach, but for PPR leaguers he's great.
TEs I like less than consensus
Taysom Hill, Saints vs. Chargers
Hill has only been of fantasy use this year as a goal-line back. That's a pretty nice feature for a player in the tight end slot, but with Spencer Rattler at the helm, I'm not expecting too many opportunities for Hill near the goal line this weekend.
Jonnu Smith, Dolphins vs. Cardinals
Smith hasn't been startable in fantasy this season, that is until last week. He ended up catching all seven of his targets for 96 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, this was a game without Tua Tagovailoa, where Snoop Huntley got the majority of the work before suffering an injury late. The Dolphins star receivers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, barely saw the ball as Huntley checked down to Smith. That won't be the case this week. With Tua back, the deep ball will be back in play and Hill, Waddle, and De'Von Achane will likely lead the team in targets.