Fantasy Football 2024: Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 9
By Chet Gresham
Week 9 is upon us and that means it's time for some more start/sits, or as I like to call them, sit/starts! This week we get to see if Bo Nix can continue to put up good numbers despite it looking like he was completely lost to start the season. We get big T.J. Hockenson back who cosplays an actual Viking 24/7. Plus, the Saints offense should perk up a bit with Derek Carr coming back. It should be a fun weekend of football. May the odds be ever in your favor.
If you’d like to take my advice, it won’t be hard to transfer these thoughts into lineup decisions. To give me a baseline, I’ll use FantasyPros PPR Expert Consensus Rankings rankings as my guide.
Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 9
QBs I like more than consensus
Bo Nix, Broncos vs. Ravens
Nix put up great numbers last week in a great matchup against the Panthers. This week he gets another good matchup, but against a much better team than the Panthers. The Ravens have one of the best offenses in the league and one of the better run defenses in the league. Unfortunately, that pushes everything against their pass defense, which hasn't held up under the pressure, especially with a few key injuries.
Nix may not put up the numbers he did against the Panthers, but his rushing ability and the likely need for him to throw the ball a lot in this matchup make for a good fantasy floor.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
Mahomes has yet to put up a Top 10 fantasy showing in any week this year, but if it's going to happen, this could be the week. DeAndre Hopkins will be in his third game and should see a full complement of snaps, Travis Kelce is playing well, and Xavier Worthy will, at some point, bust out another long touchdown. The Buccaneers defense has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, and that's often because Baker Mayfield never quits. It doesn't matter if he's throwing to Bill Jones or Jerry Rice, he's going to do what he can to keep the game close and he's done a good job of putting up a ton of yards through the air. That should keep Mahomes from letting off the gas late in this one even with them being big favorites.
QBs I like less than consensus
Jameis Winston, Browns vs. Chargers
Winston could surprise us this week, but he gets a much tougher matchup against the Chargers than he did the Ravens in his first start when he threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns. He also made mistakes in that game, but the Ravens dropped multiple interceptions. This week he'll take on a Chargers defense that has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins at Bills
The Bills have a good pass defense and over the last four weeks have allowed four touchdown passes to four interceptions to C.J. Stroud, Aaron Rodgers, Mason Rudolph, and Geno Smith. They ended up giving Smith his worst fantasy game and his only game this season where he didn't throw a touchdown.
RBs I like more than consensus
Chase Brown, Bengals vs. Raiders
Brown hasn't taken off like I thought he would, but we know he has big play ability and that he's taken over the lead role in the Bengals backfield. He has five touchdowns in his last five games, which has kept him afloat in fantasy. This week he gets a nice matchup with the Raiders, who rank 23rd in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Add in that the Bengals are 7.5-point home favorites, and I like Brown's chance to chase big fantasy points.
Kareem Hunt, Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
Hunt is a touchdown machine in Kansas City since returning and this looks like another game he's primed to find the end zone. His efficiency per carry leaves something to be desired, but there's no reason to stop playing him while he's getting so much use around the goal line.
RBs I like less than consensus
Rachaad White, Buccaneers vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs defense is why they are undefeated and it will likely be a big part if they win this game. Kansas City hasn't allowed a touchdown to a running back since Week 3 and they've allowed a total of two. They're the only team to allow under 10 PPR points a game to running backs. The Chargers are second-best at 12.7 PPR points per game.
Javonte Williams, Broncos vs. Ravens
I expect the Broncos will need to turn to the pass if they want to compete with the Ravens this week. That should limit Javonte Williams' workload, as only two backs have topped 15 carries against the Ravens. Last week they gave up their most rushing yards of the season to a back and it was 52 yards to Nick Chubb on 16 carries. Williams needs really good matchups to be a good start and this isn't one of those.
WRs I like more than consensus
Courtland Sutton, Broncos vs. Ravens
Bo Nix has turned in some decent passing days of late and last week helped Sutton to eight receptions on 11 targets for 100 yards. I expect the Ravens to run away with this game and push Nix to throw and Sutton should be his top target once again. The Ravens are second worst in giving up fantasy points to outside wide receivers and they continue to have some injuries in their secondary.
Calvin Ridley, Titans vs. Patriots
Ridley finally broke out last week, but it sure took him a while. The good news is that he's been seeing great targets since Deandre Hopkins was traded away and finally showed he could do something with those. He now has a whopping 32 targets over the last three weeks and will face a Patriots pass defense that ranks 29th in pass defense EPA.
WRs I like less than consensus
Jalen McMillan, Buccaneers vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs are head and shoulders above the rest of the league in defending outside receivers this season. McMillan has taken on a bigger role with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out, but this isn't the week to test the Chiefs pass defense if you don't have to.
Jordan Addison, Vikings vs. Colts
I've liked Addison's matchups recently, but he hasn't been able to do much. T.J. Hockenson will be back this week as well, which hurts Addison's chances to win targets. Since he's returned from injury, he's been inconsistent, and through five games played total, he hasn't caught more than three passes in any game. This isn't a bad matchup for Addison, but I just can't trust him until he can start winning more targets.
TEs I like more than consensus
T.J. Hockenson, Vikings vs. Colts
The Colts rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. They've allowed good showings to Cole Kmet, Pat Freiermuth, Brenton Strange, and Jonnu Smith so far this season. The question is whether or not Hockenson is set to return for a full complement of snaps. We don't know the answer to that, but it sounds like they gave him a lot of time to be as healthy as possible for this return. He may not see all the snaps he'll see later in the year, but he knows the offense and should be a welcome target for Sam Darnold underneath. I'm starting him this week unless I've got a strong starter already in place with a good matchup.
Taysom Hill, Saints vs. Panthers
Derek Carr is back this week, so the Saints offense should be able to move the ball better than they have with Spencer Rattler. Hill is a boom-or-bust play every week, but his boom can be huge if he's getting into the end zone, which he is good at doing, usually as a running back. But, he can catch passes and even throw a few, and with the Saints weak at receiver after Chris Olave, I expect Hill sees a reasonable workload against probably the worst defense in the league.
TEs I like less than consensus
Tucker Kraft, Packers vs. Lions
Right now there's a real chance that Jordan Love plays this week, which of course would be a boon to the Packers pass catchers compared to Malik Willis, who the team doesn't let as throw as often. But, even if Love plays, the Lions have been suppressing tight end fantasy points like nobody's business.
Kraft looks like the real deal, but he's just not seeing enough work. He has four touchdowns in his last four games, despite averaging four targets a game. That's tough to keep up and this week he gets a Lions defense that has given up one touchdown to tight ends and just 30 yards receiving per game.
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