Fantasy Football fool’s gold: 3 players you should believe in, 2 players you shouldn’t in Week 12

A whopping six teams are set to head on bye in Week 12. Which fantasy football breakouts from Week 11 can you count on to fill the gaps on your roster?
Indianapolis Colts v New York Jets
Indianapolis Colts v New York Jets / Luke Hales/GettyImages
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The fantasy football regular season is winding down with just three weeks separating standard leagues from the postseason. The problem that fantasy managers are going to run into is that the NFL backloaded its byes, with 12 teams set to go on bye between Week 12 and Week 14, a formula that is imbalanced since the league made sure all 32 teams were available for Thanksgiving.

That means six teams are on bye this coming Sunday and six more in Week 14, leaving plenty of holes for managers to try and fill on their rosters. Which breakout stars from Week 11 can be counted on to help fill those gaps? Read on for the latest fool's gold report to see who you can trust and which efforts will lead to a bust.

Fantasy Football fool's gold: Week 12 report

Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts

It has certainly been a roller-coaster ride for Richardson, who was a popular sleeper pick in the preseason due to his dual-threat ability only for him to lose his job to Joe Flacco. The aging veteran promptly lost the gig after two games, handing Richardson the keys to the car against the slumping New York Jets, and he responded with his best effort as a pro.

Richardson lit up the Jets through the air, completing 20-of-30 passes for 272 yards and a touchdown, while also adding 10 carries for 32 yards and two more scores. That kind of explosive effort is a taste of the potential Richardson has a fantasy asset, which is significant since Colts' head coach Shane Steichen indicated he will be the team's starting quarterback going forward.

There are plenty of weapons for Richardson to work with in Indy and their remaining fantasy schedule is favorable. Given the amount of brand name quarterbacks that have had rough fantasy seasons, Richardson is a must-add for any teams looking to fill in for a starter on bye in Week 12 and beyond.

Verdict: Trust

Trey Benson, RB, Arizona Cardinals

While James Conner remains the leading man in Arizona's backfield, rookie Trey Benson has shown flashes of potential. The Cardinals began to get Benson more involved prior to their bye week as he recorded nine touches in Week 9 and another dozen in Week 10.

Benson scored his first career touchdown in Week 9 and has the kind of burst that makes him an ideal compliment to Conner, who has been the Cardinals' work horse all season. The offense has been humming with Kyler Murray under center and that has lifted all boats in Arizona, including Benson's, as the Cardinals try to pull off a stunning steal of the heavyweight NFC West.

The backfield remains Conner's to lose, although his injury history suggests that he is due to miss a game or two at some point. Benson is not an ideal target for anyone hoping for immediate starter level production but he should be rostered in all leagues because he'd inherit a juicy role if Conner were to miss time.

Verdict: Bust if Conner is healthy, Trust if Conner misses time

Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns

Investing in the Cleveland passing game for fantasy purposes has become a lot more palatable since Deshaun Watson went down with a season-ending Achilles injury. Jameis Winston's long-ball tendencies have helped elevate the viability of all Browns' pass catchers, including talented young receiver Elijah Moore.

The Browns have gotten Moore more involved in the game plan since Winston took over, stacking a combined 29 targets his way in Winston's three full games as a starter. Moore has caught 17 of them, including a nice 6-66-1 line against New Orleans in Week 11 to account for his first touchdown of the season.

Long-time fantasy players know that Moore has potential to be explosive after a tremendous rookie season with the New York Jets but his consistency has waned since the middle of his second year. This spot appears to be the classic post-hype sleeper situation and anyone averaging over nine targets a game needs to be rostered, especially with Cleveland likely to be playing plenty of catch up down the stretch.

Verdict: Trust

Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns

We'll stay in Cleveland here with Ford, who spent the better part of the past year and change as the Browns' starting running back after Nick Chubb's devastating knee injury in Week 2 of the 2023 season. Ford didn't do much with his early opportunities this season and has given way to Chubb as Cleveland's primary running back, although a mid-season injury didn't help Ford's cause.

Week 11 was an interesting touchstone for the Cleveland backfield as Ford out-snapped Chubb 41 to 22 on the afternoon although Chubb touched the ball 11 times to Ford's nine. Ford didn't do much with his work load, carrying five times for 25 yards while adding four catches for another 29 yards, but the fact he was on the field as much as he was certainly merits attention.

The best case scenario for Ford appears to be a 1A/1B situation with Chubb, which is not ideal for either of their fantasy prospects. Keep an eye on Ford's snap count to see if he continues to see the field at a rate as high as he saw in Week 11 but it appears as if this was a game flow dependent situation that isn't sustainable given a brutal upcoming schedule.

Verdict: Bust

Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers

Trying to identify which Green Bay receiver is going to have a big fantasy day can be as hard as guessing the lottery numbers. Jordan Love likes to spread the ball to all of his pass catchers, making all of them rosterable but volatile WR3s, but the man with the most unquestioned upside in the Packers' receiver room is Christian Watson.

Injuries hurt Watson's productivity earlier in the season but he is fully healthy now and had a blow-up game against the Chicago Bears on Sunday. Watson was targeted just four times by Love but made the most of his chances, catching all of them and racking up 150 yards through the air.

Big plays define Watson's game as two of his catches went for a combined 108 yards, but he offers an athletic pass catcher who is due for positive touchdown regression after snagging just two scores over Green Bay's first 10 games. Love will certainly look to take advantage of Watson's game-breaking ability going forward as the Packers try to snag a wild card berth, making him the highest upside receiving play from Green Bay's roster.

Verdict: Trust

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