Why Tyler Warren is an obvious fantasy football rookie breakout candidate

Fantasy football managers should refuse to leave their drafts without Indianapolis Colts rookie tight end Tyler Warren. If the limited preseason action is any indication, he's ready to make an immediate impact, regardless of some of the uncertainty surrounding him. Of course, only one lucky person will end up with the burgeoning star, and there's no reason it shan't be you (or me, at least).

Warren's combination of talent, pedigree, positional value and path to being a top-two target in his respective offense makes him a screaming buy. Emphasis on the last part; the Colts have a solid, deep receiving corps, though there's no clear-cut alpha in the room. The 2025 No. 14 selection is currently going as the TE10 and 101 overall in point-per-reception (PPR) formats, per FantasyPros' consensus average draft position (ADP). We implore you to take him, and even be willing to reach into the back end of the first 100 picks.

Colts first-round rookie Tyler Warren meets the fantasy football TE1 criteria

Eight of 2024's top 12 overall PPR tight ends finished first or second on their squads in targets. Three of the remaining four scored at least seven touchdowns. The lone exception was the Cleveland Browns' David Njoku, who caught 64 passes, which ranked 10th at the position. Being a hyper-efficient statistical outlier or scam was the only way to return TE1 value without the requisite volume.

All signs point toward Warren being able to meet the criteria of being a primary option in the Colts' passing attack. The team has even admitted as such, according to recent intel from Benjamin Solak of ESPN. Indy has made its "excitement" about "having a legitimate talent at tight end for the first time in years" well-known.

Solak pondered whether Indy could instantly install Warren as its offensive focal point like the Las Vegas Raiders did with Brock Bowers last year. We shouldn't expect anyone to replicate the Bowers' record-shattering campaign. Nonetheless, the Colts have an equally tantalizing incoming prospect with a similar opportunity in front of him. Why can't we expect a corresponding breakout?

Colts third-year wideout Josh Downs is a great slot receiver who thrives in the short-to-intermediate areas with upside for more. He's probably Warren's stiffest competitor for being Indy's No. 1 option, no disrespect to Michael Pittman Jr. Alec Pierce has been almost exclusively a deep threat, and a damn good one, leading the NFL in yards per reception last season (22.3). 2024 second-rounder Adonai Mitchell has stood out at training camp after being an advanced route-running metrics darling in a limited sample size as a rookie.

Why Tyler Warren can become the Colts' go-to pass-catcher right away

Penn State used Warren's fifth and final year of collegiate eligibility to showcase a scoring unit that revolves around him. His 104 receptions led the Big Ten in receptions and were tied for second nationally, yielding the seventh-most yards in the country (1,233). He won the John Mackey Award, which is given to college football's most outstanding tight end, and finished seventh in the Heisman Trophy voting.

Moreover, as a one-time high school quarterback, Penn State found creative ways to utilize Warren's football IQ and athleticism. He added 218 rush yards and four touchdowns on 26 carries and completed 3-of-6 passes for an additional 35 yards and a score. Whether it was under center in the Wildcat formation or as an H-back, the Nittany Lions uniquely spammed him.

Warren broke the aforementioned Bowers' single-season power conference yardage record by a tight end -- by 400 yards. Sure, you can say that's deceiving because it includes Warren's rushing/passing outputs. But those skill sets are part of his game and will be on display in the pros; why disregard them?

Besides, even if we look solely at the apex of their respective receiving numbers, Warren holds roughly a 300-yard edge over Bowers. And that's with Penn State boasting a near-four percent rushing play rate in 2024 than Georgia did in 2022. None of this is meant to be a knock on the latter, though it amplifies how special a talent the former is.

Combining elite production with an impressive physical profile, Warren comes from a long line of sportspeople. His grandfather and grandmother played football and basketball at Georgia Tech and Carson-Newman, respectively. His father continued the legacy as a safety at Richmond, earning the nickname "The Hitman." His sister is a member of the East Tennessee State softball squad. In other words, a bloodline of athleticism literally courses through his veins.

Between his versatility and run-blocking prowess, Warren figures to be a near every-down contributor, which we've seen during the preseason. He's been on the field for 34-of-35 snaps that the Colts' starters have played (h/t Adam Levitan of Establish The Run). His value as an explosive, sure-handed, big-bodied target who can win in contested-catch situations and bulldoze defenders after the catch is already apparent.

With the verticality, strength and toughness to come down with jump balls, Warren has the traits to be a red zone asset. Good luck trying to stop all 6-foot-5 and a half and 256 pounds of him when the Colts get close. Could we see his experience as a signal-caller and partnership with ex-Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator/Indy head coach Shane Steichen lead to tush push chances?

He can operate from the slot, on the boundary or as a traditional in-line option. His diverse usage at Penn State should translate well into a versatile role for the Colts at the next level, foreshadowing a diverse route tree. Regardless of whether Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson is named their starting passer, they will be able to lean on him.

How does the Colts' QB uncertainty impact Tyler Warren?

Whoever "wins" the Colts' quarterback "competition" will only be prevailing temporarily. Odds are, both Jones and Richardson get starts under center in 2025. Nonetheless, we'd bet on each of them looking at Warren as a safety blanket.

Jones targeted his tight ends at a much lower rate than Richardson last year, so perhaps Warren's volume will oscillate as they do. However, what the A-Rich offers in raw targets, Jones counteracts with less volatility and more accuracy. It will be a constant battle of push and pull, though the Colts' new playmaker projects to get fed.

Mike Clay of ESPN's prognostications has Warren falling shy of 100 targets, a mark he anticipates only eight tight ends to reach, with 88. It wouldn't be shocking to see the newcomer exceed the century, especially depending on the severity of Downs' recent hamstring injury. The Colts having one of the more fantasy-friendly schedules for the position also helps make the Jones/Richardson situation more palatable.