Farmers Insurance Open expert picks 2025: PGA Tour golf predictions and analysis for Torrey Pines

Get ready for Wednesday golf as we have an earlier start in the week for the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open than we're traditionally used to with a PGA Tour event. The trip to Torrey Pines for the week will conclude with a Saturday finish so to not conflict with the NFL's conference championship week on Sunday. But no matter when the tournament falls, we're here again to break it all down.

Sepp Straka broke our hearts last week at The American Express as he beat out our winner pick, Justin Thomas, by two strokes to give us a one-unit loss for a runner-up finish. Nothing hurts worse than that when you're making expert picks but Frankie Capan III saved us from a dismal week overall with an easy Top 40 that perhaps we should've been a bit more aggressive with as a sleeper.

But we move on after small losses last week and are onto the Farmers Insurance Open with our picks to win, Top 10 and for One and Done before once again delving into some sleepers as well for the week. Let's get after it.

Golf betting record in 2025: 3-9-0, -2.525 Units (-0.525 Units at AmEx) | One and Done Total for 2025: $2,243,270.00 (Harry Hall at AmEx, $83,270)

Note: All lines are courtesy of BetMGM. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Farmers Insurance Open golf picks to Win, finish Top 10 and One and Done

Pick to win the Farmers Insurance Open: Ludvig Åberg (+900)

We're going with straight chalk at the top of the odds board this week a the Farmers but, as anyone who's been following my PGA Tour picks for a while knows, I can't quit the big Swede. Despite not playing his best on approach in the fall, he bounced back in a big way to gain 2.51 strokes at The Sentry, which resulted in a T5. Now at Torrey Pines, his length and accuracy off the tee combined with that approach play, especially from long range where he thrives, should suit him beautifully. After finishing T9 last year at this event, he'll win the Farmers at a venue suited to his game.

Top 10 pick for the Farmers Insurance Open: Will Zalatoris (+225)

It's hard to not be enticed by the flashes from Will Zalatoris early in the 2025 golf season with a T26 at The Sentry after he faded a bit after a hot start but then coming back with a T12 at The American Express. Zalatoris has made his young career to this point out of thriving in two settings: Longer courses and tougher courses. Torrey Pines checks those boxes. Furthermore, he ranks fourth in bogey avoidance in this field over the last 24 rounds, which should keep in the mix throughout. I don't know if the juice is there for a win, but there's more than enough evidence that a Top 10 is in play.

One and Done pick for the Farmers Insurance Open: Keegan Bradley

Frankly, there weren't a ton of One and Done options that I'm willing to play at the Farmers that really stood out to me. But I don't have a spot for Keegan Bradley in mind right now, so he seems like a solid option. Bradley grades out well by my numbers for Torrey Pines not because he's elite in any one area (though he's close in long Par 4 scoring) but because he's above-average in almost all of them. That seems like a recipe for an easy made cut and perhaps a Top 10 or Top 5 ceiling, which I'll gladly take this week before we get to another signature event.

Sleepers to watch at Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open

Top 20 sleeper pick for the Farmers Insurance Open (0.4 Units): Kevin Yu (+320)

It hasn't been the best start to 2025 for Kevin Yu with a T44 at The Sentry and then a missed cut last week. Having said that, he won the Sanderson in the fall and was T16 at the ZOZO and T11 at the RSM before the turn of the calendar. With his ball-striking ceiling and a putter that's actually shown more frequent propensity to get hot, he's someone who could really have nice success at Torrey Pines with how his game shapes up. And after finishing T6 here a year ago, I'm willing to take a little sprinkle on that upside, even if it's only a Top 20 play.

Sleeper pick to win the Farmers Insurance Open (0.1 Units): Alejandro Tosti (+30000)

This is a total and complete flier on Alejandro Tosti. Both in game and temperament, few players are as volatile as Tosti. Yet, two metrics stand out. Over the past 24 rounds, he's first in strokes gained on approaches from 200-225 yards and fifth in driving distance. Both things are important at the Farmers and, if he can keep a cool head about him, there's a world where his strengths are heightened and he could be a surprise at the top of the leaderboard.