Every March, we often hear: "If the slipper fits," referencing the NCAA Tournament's Cinderella teams, AKA unlikeliest programs to pull off upsets and deep runs. And with the 2025 Big Dance in full swing, expect this catchphrase to be recited again.
College basketball is one of the most unpredictable sports, which undeniably adds to the intrigue. After all, the player pool consists of young, amateur student-athletes. Only a select bunch will go pro, making the annual field of 68 their "One Shining Moment."
No matter how many times it happens, that feeling of watching an underdog achieve a surprising victory never gets old. It hits especially differently when a double-digit seed knocks out a heavy favorite in a David versus Goliath encounter.
The erratic nature of college hoops is only amplified in a single-game elimination setting like March Madness. Schools cruise en route to the tourney, only to falter unexpectedly on the grandest stage to an inferior foe. It's a tale as old as time, but has a 10-seed or higher ever reached the national championship? Could we see another Cinderella run this year?
Let's look at the farthest any double-digit seed has ever advanced in the men's bracket, plus teams that have made surprisingly deep runs.
What’s the best NCAA Tournament run by a double-digit seed?
Here's a list of the lowest-seeded teams to ever reach each round of the NCAA Tournament:
- Round of 32: No. 16 (2018 UMBC; 2023 FDU)
- Sweet 16: No. 15 (2013 Florida Gulf Coast; 2021 Oral Roberts; 2022 Saint Peter's; 2023 Princeton)
- Elite Eight: No. 15 (2022 Saint Peter's)
- Final Four: No. 11 (1986 LSU; 2006 George Mason; 2011 VCU; 2018 Loyola Chicago; 2021 UCLA; 2024 NC State)
- National championship: No. 8 (1985 Villanova; 2011 Butler; 2014 Kentucky; 2022 North Carolina)
Only two No. 16 seeds have taken down a No. 1 team and made it out of Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament. The University of Maryland-Baltimore County (UMBC) Retrievers were the first to accomplish the feat in 2018. They shellacked a Virginia squad that ranked first in the final AP Poll, only to get knocked out by No. 9 Kansas State afterward.
The Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) Knights defeated Purdue. At the time, the Boilermakers had two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey. But like UMBC, the mid-major school ran into a feisty ninth-seeded squad (Florida Atlantic) poised to turn heads.
Unfortunately, from a historical standpoint, UMBC and FDU's efforts didn't change much for the respective programs. Neither has reached the NCAA Tournament since. Ironically, their success may have done more harm than good, considering it caused them to lose the head coach who led them to shocking wins.
Meanwhile, four 15 seeds have escaped the second round and made it to the Sweet 16. But alas, only one punched their ticket to the Elite Eight: Saint Peter's.
Lowest-seeded teams to reach the Elite Eight
School | Year | Seed | Region | Final Result |
---|---|---|---|---|
LSU | 1986 | 11 | Southeast | Won |
Missouri | 2002 | 12 | West | Loss |
George Mason | 2006 | 11 | Washington | Won |
VCU | 2011 | 11 | Southwest | Won |
Syracuse | 2016 | 10 | Midwest | Won |
Loyola Chicago (IL) | 2018 | 11 | South | Won |
UCLA | 2021 | 11 | East | Won |
Oregon State | 2021 | 12 | Midwest | Loss |
Saint Peter's | 2022 | 15 | East | Loss |
NC State | 2024 | 11 | South | Won |
In 2022, Saint Peter's became the first and only 15 seed to make the Elite Eight. The Peacocks kicked things off by stunning No. 2 Kentucky in the first round, thanks to a heroic performance from sharpshooting guard Doug Edert.
Edert became an instant sensation, thanks to his contributions on the court and an awesome mustache. He scored 20 points in the Peacocks' win over the Wildcats. Saint Peter's also took down a strong No. 3 Purdue squad in the Sweet 16, establishing themselves as giant killers. Nonetheless, their awesome run was eventually abruptly halted by a special North Carolina team that will be mentioned below.
Has a double-digit seed ever made the Final Four?
School | Year | Seed | Region | Final Result |
---|---|---|---|---|
LSU | 1986 | 11 | Southeast | Loss |
George Mason | 2006 | 11 | Washington | Loss |
VCU | 2011 | 11 | Southwest | Loss |
Syracuse | 2016 | 10 | Midwest | Loss |
Loyola Chicago (IL) | 2018 | 11 | South | Loss |
UCLA | 2021 | 11 | East | Loss |
NC State | 2024 | 11 | South | Loss |
As you can see, history tells us the road ends here for double-digit seeds. Stockpiling so many colossal triumphs can be physically, mentally and emotionally taxing. In college basketball, not every Cinderella story has a fairytale ending.
The closest a double-digit seed ever came to reaching the title game was UCLA in 2021. Impressively, they were down five points with roughly a minute-and-a-half remaining in their First Four matchup with Michigan State. But after narrowly escaping in overtime, the Bruins went through a gauntlet of opponents and nearly made it to the other side.
UCLA eliminated the East Region's top two seeds, Michigan and Alabama, and took a then-perfect Gonzaga squad to overtime in the Final Four. The Bruins' quartet of Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyger Campbell and Jules Bernand was better than their seeding led many to believe. So, while they're labeled an "underdog," they were probably just underrated.
The closest a Cinderella team has come to winning it all
School | Year | Seed | Region | Final Result |
---|---|---|---|---|
Villanova | 1985 | 8 | Southeast | Win |
Butler | 2011 | 8 | Southeast | Loss |
UConn | 2014 | 7 | East | Win |
Kentucky | 2014 | 8 | Midwest | Loss |
North Carolina | 2022 | 8 | East | Loss |
In 1985, No. 8 Villanova became the lowest-seeded team to win a national title. They took the road less traveled, facing four top-two-ranked squads, including an iconic Georgetown crew led by NBA Hall of Famer Patrick Ewing. The Wildcats stood alone in the annals of men's college basketball history for nearly three decades -- until UConn joined them in 2014.
Fascinatingly, UConn was met by another improbable challenger in the championship game: No. 8 Kentucky. Both schools did something few before they had ever done, but only one could join Villanova in elite company. The Huskies were carried by Consensus All-American senior guard Shabazz Napier, who scored 22 of their 60 points in the title showdown with Big Blue.
As noted previously, the 2022 Tar Heels were a remarkable team. Led by then-first-year head coach Hubert Davis, they prevented Saint Peter's from doing something unprecedented while etching their name in the record books. Fast forward to today, North Carolina has been on bubble watch all season and can do something similar in 2025. Fittingly, they have the same leader at the helm. Can lightning strike twice in Chapel Hill?