What the Fever must do to shock the Aces and why it's not as unlikely as you think

The Indiana Fever were not supposed to be here — advancing to the second-round of the WNBA Playoffs.

Without their star and league darling Caitlin Clark, the Fever won two elimination games against a red-hot, higher-seeded Atlanta Dream. In addition to being without Clark, the Fever had six players out due to injury compared to the Dream’s zero.  

Now, the Fever will face the Las Vegas Aces, who moved on thanks to a narrow one-point win in Game 3 against the Seattle Storm shortly after the Fever’s series-clinching win on Thursday. Still without Clark, how will they fare when they open the best-of-5 series with two straight games on the road in Las Vegas?

The Fever will need to think about their July 3 win against the Aces, which ended a 16-game losing streak to them that dated back to 2020. In that 81-54 victory (done without Clark), they started hot — a key to an Aces team that boasts one of the best players in the world, A'ja Wilson, leading the way. They had a 22-point halftime lead. 

The Fever have beaten the Aces before, thanks to ...

A balanced offense.

The Fever scored 28 of their 46 first-half points in the paint. Obviously, Kelsey Mitchell was surging in the game, with 12 of her 25 points scored in the first half. Aliyah Boston and Natasha Howard added 14 and 10 points before intermission, too.

Stifling defense.

The Aces shot 25.8 percent in the first half. Even though Wilson had 17 points in the first half, the rest of the Aces only made two buckets in the first two quarters. They finished the game shooting just 26.2 percent from the field.

A few weeks later, on July 24, the Fever beat the Aces again, 80-70.

This win was thanks to ...

More balanced offense.

Mitchell (again) had a game-high 21 points in addition to four assists. But four other Fever players were also in double-digits scoring, which shows how evenly distributed Indiana’s offense is. This is something the Aces don’t always have. 

Shutdown 3-point defense.

Las Vegas was cold from beyond the arc, shooting 13.3 percent. They made just 2-of-15 attempts, while the Fever shot 47.8 percent (11-of-23).

And of course, what’s the best way to upset a team in the playoffs? Play with a chip on your shoulder. As the underdog who already took out the higher-seeded team, the Fever will be riding a high going into this series. If they can defend and spread the ball around they can do what looks impossible.

More WNBA news and analysis: