The Final Four is here with two compelling matchups between four of the strongest college basketball teams we've seen in the past quarter century. While the night will kick off with an SEC grudge match between Auburn and Florida, the nightcap features a rematch from last year's NCAA Tournament as Duke squares off against Houston.
The Cougars were playing very well against Duke last March before an injury to Jamal Shead allowed the Blue Devils to steal the game. Both teams are healthy entering the matchup, which could be one of the most exciting college basketball games we see in the entire tournament.
The game goes to overtime
KenPom is very bullish on these teams, who rank among the Top 10 college basketball teams by KenPom metrics since the site starting tracking its data in the 1996-97 season. Both programs have also done a ton of winning since the calendar flipped to December, going a combined 61-2 over the past four months, which is an absurd level of dominance to maintain for such a long period.
With such an evenly matched game, it feels like overtime is almost inevitable. The Cougars have plenty of overtime experience this season, playing at least one extra session four times, but they were just 1-3 in those games.
Duke has yet to play an overtime game this season but they have plenty of depth to withstand an extra five minutes of play. If we do end up getting an extra session out of this matchup, fans will be in for an absolute treat.
Cooper Flagg puts up a triple-double
There were questions about how Cooper Flagg's ankle injury would impact him entering the NCAA Tournament and they have been answered with an emphatic none whatsotever. Flagg has been a steady contributor throughout Duke's March Madness wins, posting his finest game in the Sweet 16 against Arizona, when he contributed 30 points, 7 assists and six rebounds in a 100-93 win.
That kind of stat sheet stuffing is common for Flagg, whose extraordinary passing ability and court vision allows him to be a lethal distributor from a point forward position. While Flagg has flirted with a triple-double a few times, including late in the regular season against Wake Forest, he will finally get one here against Houston by being an elite distributor when the Cougars throw double teams his way.
Since the NCAA started tracking assists in 1984, only nine players have recorded a triple-double in the NCAA Tournament, none of which occurred later than the Elite Eight. Delivering a triple-double in the Final Four will place Flagg into rarified air as one of the greatest college basketball players to ever take the floor.
Houston dictates the tempo
It is a far easier task to slow down a team in college basketball than to speed one up, and Houston likes to play at an exceedingly slow pace. KenPom has the Cougars at 360th in adjusted tempo, by far the slowest of any team left in the field, while Duke isn't that much faster at 268th.
Three of Houston's NCAA Tournament games have been played at a slow pace, with the lone exception being an 81-76 win over Gonzaga in the Round of 32. The Bulldogs play at a much more aggressive pace than Duke, however, which likes to operate half court offense and will be content to try and beat the Cougars at their own game.
Controlling the tempo is no guarantee of success, especially since the Blue Devils own the most efficent offense in the country. While Houston may limit the number of possessions successfully, they will still have to execute on the defensive end to keep Duke from pushing this game into the 80s, where they are more likely to win than if it is a defensive slugfest in the 60s.