What do the first College Football Playoff rankings mean for Alabama's CFP chances?

It was always going to be close, but the College Football Playoff Selection Committee was not about to leave the Alabama Crimson Tide on the outside looking in. Even though they are 6-2 on the season, Alabama's head-to-head win over No. 3 Georgia got them the No. 11 spot in the first rankings of the 2024 college football season. It was a tad controversial because others were more deserving.

However, I think it just goes to show how much the Selection Committee values the talent on the field in Tuscaloosa, as well as the fine head coach they have in Kalen DeBoer. It may be his first year on the job, but DeBoer already has a signature victory under his belt at Alabama. The home win over Georgia is one of the three best wins on the season in some capacity. Could they still get in with a third loss?

Before we get into all of that, let's take a look at how the Selection Committee ranked its first top 25.

1. Oregon Ducks
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
3. Georgia Bulldogs
4. Miami Hurricanes
5. Texas Longhorns
6. Penn State Nittany Lions
7. Tennessee Volunteers
8. Indiana Hoosiers
9. BYU Cougars
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
11. Alabama Crimson Tide
12. Boise State Broncos
13. SMU Mustangs
14. Texas A&M Aggies
15. LSU Tigers
16. Ole Miss Rebels
17. Iowa State Cyclones
18. Pittsburgh Panthers
19. Kansas State Wildcats
20. Colorado Buffaloes
21. Washington State Cougars
22. Louisville Cardinals
23. Clemson Tigers
24. Missouri Tigers
25. Army Black Knights

Based on the necessary seeding protocol, here are the 12 teams that would be making the playoff.

1. Oregon Ducks (Projected Big Ten champion)
2. Georgia Bulldogs (Projected SEC champion)
3. Miami Hurricanes (Projected ACC champion)
4. BYU Cougars (Projected Big 12 champion)
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
6. Texas Longhorns (Projected SEC runner-up)
7. Penn State Nittany Lions (Projected Big Ten at-large)
8. Tennessee Volunteers (Projected SEC at-large)
9. Indiana Hoosiers (Projected Big Ten at-large)
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Projected national Independent at-large)
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (Projected SEC at-large)
12. Boise State Broncos (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)

To add further context, these would be the first four teams out, even though only two were counted.

• 13. SMU Mustangs (Projected ACC runner-up)
• 14. Texas A&M Aggies (SEC)
• 15. LSU Tigers (SEC)
• 16. Ole Miss Rebels (SEC)

There is a bit more nuance here, but let me try to explain why being No. 11 is fantastic for Alabama.

What Alabama being ranked No. 11 means for Tide's playoff chances

With Alabama being ranked ahead of Texas A&M, LSU and Ole Miss, it means that a win over LSU on Saturday not only gets them on step closer to getting in, but almost has them at a lock at this point. If Alabama beats LSU in Death Valley, expect for them to win the rest of their games over Mercer, Oklahoma and Auburn. They won't have another resume booster, but the LSU win should be enough.

Conversely if they lose, it does not cross Alabama off entirely, but it does make it very difficult for them to get in. At 9-3, you would need to hope that other team's 9-3 records are not as compelling. Alabama would probably edge out Ole Miss and Texas A&M, all things equal, but would they have enough to get past the likes of Georgia, Texas and Vanderbilt with similar records? It would be close.

What the initial rankings tells me in more of a macro sense with Alabama is this. One, the Selection Committee really wants there to be four Big Ten and four SEC teams getting in. Alabama's brand is bigger than SMU's. I am sorry. The second is while it may be close in the ledger, the Selection Committee would still rather take a two-loss Alabama team over a one-loss Boise State it has to.

Finally, I think this initial ranking suggest that all Alabama needs to do is beat LSU, not even convincingly to get in at 10-2. You would have two quality wins over Georgia and LSU, as well as two quality-to-decent losses to Tennessee and Vanderbilt. Alabama would likely climb up from No. 11 with a win over LSU, but they definitely would not drop. They are in a great spot ahead of Week 11.

It is hard to envision a 10-2 Alabama team not being one of the seven best at-large teams this year.