What do first College Football Playoff rankings mean for Boise State's CFP chances?

Tuesday night's College Football Playoff rankings were both great and a pleasant surprise for the Group of Five favorite Boise State Broncos. Spencer Danielson's team is 7-1 on the year with a close loss to No. 1 Oregon. They have a pair of quality wins on the season over No. 21 Washington State and a two-loss UNLV team they may see again in the conference title bout. Boise State was No. 12!

I cannot begin to tell you how big this is for Boise State's chances of note only making the playoff, but possibly being even better than merely an automatic qualifier out of the Group of Five. Not only did the get the Group of Five AQ spot, but the Broncos were ranked No. 12 ever before that. Simply put, they were not shoehorned into a playoff spot ahead of a team the Selection Committee liked better.

Before I unpack the significance of Boise State's ranking, here is the top 25 heading into Week 11.

1. Oregon Ducks
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
3. Georgia Bulldogs
4. Miami Hurricanes
5. Texas Longhorns
6. Penn State Nittany Lions
7. Tennessee Volunteers
8. Indiana Hoosiers
9. BYU Cougars
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
11. Alabama Crimson Tide
12. Boise State Broncos
13. SMU Mustangs
14. Texas A&M Aggies
15. LSU Tigers
16. Ole Miss Rebels
17. Iowa State Cyclones
18. Pittsburgh Panthers
19. Kansas State Wildcats
20. Colorado Buffaloes
21. Washington State Cougars
22. Louisville Cardinals
23. Clemson Tigers
24. Missouri Tigers
25. Army Black Knights

As you can see Boise State is in the playoff field as the projected No. 12 seed ahead of Week 11.

1. Oregon Ducks (Projected Big Ten champion)
2. Georgia Bulldogs (Projected SEC champion)
3. Miami Hurricanes (Projected ACC champion)
4. BYU Cougars (Projected Big 12 champion)
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
6. Texas Longhorns (Projected SEC runner-up)
7. Penn State Nittany Lions (Projected Big Ten at-large)
8. Tennessee Volunteers (Projected SEC at-large)
9. Indiana Hoosiers (Projected Big Ten at-large)
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Projected national Independent at-large)
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (Projected SEC at-large)
12. Boise State Broncos (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)

And for good measure, here are the first four teams out of the College Football Playoff picture today.

• 13. SMU Mustangs (Projected ACC runner-up)
• 14. Texas A&M Aggies (SEC)
• 15. LSU Tigers (SEC)
• 16. Ole Miss Rebels (SEC)

Finally, I will unpack why Boise State being ranked No. 12 is far more important than the No. 12 seed.

What Boise State's initial spot in College Football Playoff rankings means

Unless undefeated Army were to upset Notre Dame, beat Navy in their massive rivalry game and then beat presumably two-loss Tulane to win The American, Boise State would still be in the driver's seat to win the Group of Five. While a second loss on the season would probably knock them out of the race entirely, even if it is to UNLV in a potential rematch, I think they could end up better than No. 12.

For all intents and purposes, the Big 12 champion is going to be good enough to make the playoff, even if it ends up being Colorado, or somebody else worse than them... Boise State, or whoever wins the Group of Five, could go as high as the No. 4 seed if the Big 12 champion is not as good as them. See, this is where things will get interesting. Boise State does not even have to be the No. 4 seed...

Should they keep winning, the Broncos would have a chance to potentially climb as high as No. 9 if things break a certain way. They would probably be the fifth highest ranked conference champion, but they would not be occupying the No. 12 seed out of default. In that case, it would be an at-large team going to play another at-large team in the No. 5 vs. No. 12 first-round game at No. 5's stadium.

Overall, I think what this initial ranking shows is that even though the Selection Committee slotted two-loss Alabama on spot above them, there is a pathway for upward mobility for Boise State, or whoever ends up winning the Group of Five potentially. More importantly, there are two teams ranked between Boise State at No. 12 and BYU at No. 9 in Notre Dame at No. 10 and then Alabama at No. 11.

What I am getting at is not only is Boise State ridiculously close to being the No. 11 seed, but the Broncos' actually have an outside chance at getting the No. 4 seed. Think of them being slotted in with the No. 9 ranking as BYU was. Simply, it is not a foregone conclusion that Boise State was only ever going to be the No. 12 seed. The fact they are ranked at No. 12 says they can go even higher.

Boise State should be ecstatic about its College Football Playoff ranking more than even its seeding.