What do first College Football Playoff rankings mean for Notre Dame's CFP chances?

The 7-1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish were always going to be ranked inside of the top 12 when it came to the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season. They have a few quality wins on their resume, including over Texas A&M, Louisville and Navy. Unfortunately, that bad Week 2 home loss to Northern Illinois is arguably the worst loss any team has on its resume who was ranked in the top 25.

While Notre Dame can benefit from not playing in a conference, it can also be hurt by it. Over the previous decade, Notre Dame has been one of the six or seven best programs in college football. With how talented they looked coming into the season, as well as how strong they look now, Notre Dame looks like a playoff team, especially if they win out. But what about Notre Dame going 10-2?

Before we get into that, here is a look at who the Selection Committee felt were the 25 best teams.

1. Oregon Ducks
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
3. Georgia Bulldogs
4. Miami Hurricanes
5. Texas Longhorns
6. Penn State Nittany Lions
7. Tennessee Volunteers
8. Indiana Hoosiers
9. BYU Cougars
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
11. Alabama Crimson Tide
12. Boise State Broncos
13. SMU Mustangs
14. Texas A&M Aggies
15. LSU Tigers
16. Ole Miss Rebels
17. Iowa State Cyclones
18. Pittsburgh Panthers
19. Kansas State Wildcats
20. Colorado Buffaloes
21. Washington State Cougars
22. Louisville Cardinals
23. Clemson Tigers
24. Missouri Tigers
25. Army Black Knights

Following their necessary playoff seeding protocols, here is what the playoff bracket would look like.

1. Oregon Ducks (Projected Big Ten champion)
2. Georgia Bulldogs (Projected SEC champion)
3. Miami Hurricanes (Projected ACC champion)
4. BYU Cougars (Projected Big 12 champion)
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
6. Texas Longhorns (Projected SEC runner-up)
7. Penn State Nittany Lions (Projected Big Ten at-large)
8. Tennessee Volunteers (Projected SEC at-large)
9. Indiana Hoosiers (Projected Big Ten at-large)
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Projected national Independent at-large)
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (Projected SEC at-large)
12. Boise State Broncos (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)

And for those who need a little more data, here are the first four teams out of the playoff picture.

• 13. SMU Mustangs (Projected ACC runner-up)
• 14. Texas A&M Aggies (SEC)
• 15. LSU Tigers (SEC)
• 16. Ole Miss Rebels (SEC)

Allow me to do my best to explain why Notre Dame being ranked only No. 10 is not ideal for them.

What College Football Playoff rankings mean for Notre Dame's chances?

As it stands now, Notre Dame has three quality wins: Texas A&M, Louisville and Navy, for the time being. While they still have four more games left to be played, the Irish will be favored in all of them. The good news is they have one more resume booster left on the table in undefeated Army in a few weeks. Unfortunately, their three other games may be against non-bowl teams. That does not help.

While the ability to win in convincing fashion over teams like Florida State, Virginia and USC could be huge, the Seminoles are already out of bowl contention, USC is on the cusp and Virginia may not make it there. A loss to any of them would be equally as devastating as falling earlier in the season to Northern Illinois. The good news is a win over undefeated Army in a few weeks would buoy them.

If not Boise State, Army is probably the next most likely contender to win the Group of Five. For them to do that, the Black Knights would need for Boise State to lose again, as well as beat Navy and probably Tulane in the AAC Championship. A win over Notre Dame could get them higher than even the No. 12 seed as the Group of Five winner. To me, Notre Dame's playoff chances hinge on Army.

At No. 10 in the initial rankings, the Irish were docked bad for losing at home to Northern Illinois. While falling to Army would be a quality loss, the same cannot be said with a defeat to Florida State, Virginia or USC. Even with an Army win and a loss in any of those other games, is Notre Dame's 10-2 compelling enough to get in? Not playing in a conference championship game would do them in.

Overall, Notre Dame needed to be ranked a few spots higher than No. 10 to make its playoff chances feel more certain. The pathway to getting in is clear, but they do not have as much margin for error as you would think. Clearly, the Selection Committee would rather put in less deserving one-loss teams into the field like Texas and Penn State, in part that their losses are not as damning at Notre Dame's.

Notre Dame is in for now, but the Fighting Irish will probably need to go 11-1 to get in, and not 10-2.