First Pitch: Paul Skenes and the next generation of MLB's starting pitching movement

Paul Skenes headlines the list of the game's best pitchers five years from now.
Pittsburgh Pirates v New York Yankees
Pittsburgh Pirates v New York Yankees | Dustin Satloff/GettyImages

The two best pitchers this past MLB season were fairly easy to identify, with Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal dominantly winning Cy Young awards. Sale earned 26 of the 30 votes in the NL while Skubal was the unanimous winner in the AL, and with how good they looked, seeing them win it again in 2025 wouldn't be surprising.

Skubal and Sale, in whichever order you want to put them, are probably the best pitchers in the league right now. But what about five years from now? There's a good chance that Sale, who will be 40 years old by then, won't be pitching anymore. Skubal will be, but he'll be 33. Will he still be among the league's five best starters? I'm going to gamble and say no.

With Sale and Skubal not on my list of top five pitchers in the next five years, who will overtake them? Let's break it down.

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Top 5 MLB SP in 2030

  1. Eury Perez might not be on the Marlins in 2030, but he'll be elite
  2. There's a reason the Red Sox traded for Garrett Crochet
  3. Hunter Greene might have been MLB's most underrated pitcher in 2024
  4. MLB fans should not forget how dominant Spencer Strider is
  5. Paul Skenes might be MLB's best pitcher this time next year

Honorable mentions: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, George Kirby, Jackson Jobe, Logan Gilbert, Roki Sasaki

Eury Perez might not be on the Marlins in 2030, but he'll be elite

5

Eury Perez

RHP
Miami Marlins Logo

Many reasons explain why the Miami Marlins were as bad as they were in 2024, but injuries top the list. Sandy Alcantara is the starting pitcher most point to who missed the entire season, but Eury Perez did as well. And while the young righty might not be as accomplished as Alcantara is just yet, what he showed in 2023 suggests his future is as bright as anyone's.

As a 20-year-old, Perez made the jump from Double-A after making just 25 starts at that level and was mostly dominant in the Majors, posting a 3.15 ERA in 19 starts and 91.1 innings of work. Perez held the opposition to three runs or fewer in all but three of his starts and held them scoreless seven times. This includes a six-inning masterpiece in which he allowed just two hits and struck out 10 without walking a batter at Dodger Stadium.

Perez is armed with a fastball that ranked in the 94th percentile in average velocity according to Baseball Savant (97.5 mph), plus three off-speed pitches, all of which generated whiff rates of at least 46 percent. Perez generated a 33.7 percent whiff rate overall, which had him in the 93rd percentile.

Again, he did all of this as a 20-year-old who did not throw a single Triple-A pitch. With his stuff and his youth, there's reason to believe he's going to be even better in 2030. Chances are, given the organization's history, he won't be in Miami in a half-decade as he's set to hit free agency one year sooner, but Perez should be among the best pitchers in the sport. If I'm being honest, I might even be lower on him than I should.

There's a reason the Red Sox traded for Garrett Crochet

4

Garrett Crochet

LHP
Boston Red Sox Logo

Recency bias? Perhaps, but after what we witnessed in 2024, how can Crochet not be on a list like this? In his first full season as a starter, the lefty posted a 3.58 ERA in 32 starts and 146 innings of work. He struck out 209 batters in those innings, compared to just 33 walks.

Crochet was obviously excellent, but advanced metrics suggest he should've been even better than he was. Crochet had a 2.85 xERA, 2.69 FIP, and 2.38 xFIP. The opposition also had a .318 BABIP against him, a decent margin above the league average of .300. Pitching on the worst team in modern MLB history certainly impacted him, at least somewhat.

Fortunately, Crochet was traded to the Boston Red Sox where he'll get to work with highly regarded pitching coach Andrew Bailey.

Crochet generated a whiff rate of at least 31 percent on all five of his pitches, according to Baseball Savant, topping out at 42.2 percent with his sweeper. His fastball is perhaps the most impressive pitch of the bunch, as it ranked in the 92nd percentile in average velocity and held the opposition to a .198 average with a .202 xBA. He allowed just five home runs all season on that pitch, which was featured 53.7 percent of the time.

Crochet's numbers tailed off a bit down the stretch when the White Sox limited his workload, but in the first half of the year, he had a legitimate case right alongside Skubal for the AL Cy Young Award. Chances are that when he's unleashed again and has better players around him, we'll see Crochet look as good, if not better, than he did last year.

Health is a clear concern, obviously, given the fact that 2024 was the only one out of his five professional seasons in which he's topped 55 innings. But as we saw last year, the sky truly is the limit for the southpaw, especially considering that he'll only be 30 in 2030.

Hunter Greene might have been MLB's most underrated pitcher in 2024

3

Hunter Greene

RHP
Cincinnati Reds Logo

Despite the NL Cy Young Award, Sale did not lead the National League in bWAR. Neither did the runner-up, Zack Wheeler. The leader in that category was Cincinnati Reds hurler Hunter Greene, who tied Skubal with 6.3 bWAR while not even pitching enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. That's how dominant Greene was in his breakout year.

The 25-year-old posted a 2.75 ERA in 26 starts and 150.1 innings of work, striking out 169 batters and posting a 1.018 WHIP. As if that isn't exciting enough, the right-hander only pitched better as the season progressed.

Greene allowed just seven runs in his final 10 starts, posting a 1.09 ERA in 57.2 innings of work in that span. Overall, Greene allowed three runs or fewer in all but five of his starts. He went at least six innings while allowing three hits or fewer and keeping the opposition off the board entirely six different times. He allowed one run or fewer in 15 of his 25 starts. Yes, 60 percent of the time Greene took the mound, he shut the opposition down completely or allowed one skinny run. Talk about dominance.

Not only did Greene rank in the 96th percentile in average fastball velocity, per Baseball Savant, but he ranked in the 92nd percent in hard-hit rate (32.5 percent). Greene generates a good amount of whiffs and strikeouts, but also does a fantastic job of avoiding hard contact. That's a big reason why he held the opposition to a sparkling .183 batting average against.

Oh yeah, and he did all of this while pitching half the time at Great American Ball Park, one of the more hitter-friendly parks in the majors. Greene is special, and as he approaches his prime years, he's only going to get better.

MLB fans should not forget how dominant Spencer Strider is

2

Spencer Strider

RHP
Atlanta Braves Logo

It's easy to forget, but Atlanta Braves phenom Spencer Strider was a popular NL Cy Young preseason pick. There's a reason for that: He might've had a fairly high ERA in 2023, but he still led the NL with a 2.85 FIP that season to go with 281 strikeouts. Yes, he fanned 281 batters in 186.2 innings of work. That's pretty impossible to fathom, yet it's the reality.

A big reason why Strider's ERA was at 3.86 was because the opposition had a .348 BABIP against him. That's 48 points above the league average of .300. With better luck, he would've had closer to the 3.09 ERA FanGraphs expected him to have based on his results.

The one knock you can really have on Strider is his lack of a third pitch. His fastball had an average velocity of 97.3 mph in 2023, and his slider generated a video game-like 58.6 percent whiff rate while holding the opposition to a .143 BA with a .104 xBA. The latter might genuinely be the best pitch in the sport. Unfortunately, Strider hasn't really shown a reliable third pitch, which has come back to bite him in the past.

Strider was limited to just two starts in 2024 after undergoing internal brace surgery, but he's expected to return sometime in the first half of the 2025 campaign. Assuming he does, and that he stays healthy, the strikeout artist should immediately reclaim his throne as perhaps the most dominant pitcher in the sport. Nobody, other than perhaps the No. 1 pitcher on this list, has more upside than Strider, who will be 31 years old in 2030.

Paul Skenes might be MLB's best pitcher this time next year

1

Paul Skenes

RHP
Pittsburgh Pirates Logo

Was there any doubt who'd be No. 1 on this list? By this time next year, Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes might be considered the best pitcher on the planet — if not sooner. He's that good.

Despite making just 12 Minor League starts, the Pirates promoted the right-hander to the Majors in May, and never looked back. From the moment Skenes stepped foot on an MLB mound, he looked like one of if not the best pitcher in the sport. He needs more experience to be unanimously considered the best, but by the end of next season, he could easily have that.

Skenes posted a 1.96 ERA in 23 starts and 133 innings for Pittsburgh this past season, striking out 170 batters compared to just 32 walks. Despite spending the first month in the Minor Leagues and having his innings limited in his last couple of starts, Skenes was worth 5.9 bWAR.

Skenes allowed three runs or fewer in all but one of his outings. He allowed one run or fewer in 14 of his 23 starts. To take things one step further, Skenes had two different starts in which he went at least six innings and did not allow a single hit. He struck out 11 batters in both of those starts.

His stuff, headlined by a fastball that hits triple-digits routinely and an unhittable splinker, is as good as it gets in the sport, and as he gains experience, he's only going to get better. Remember, this is a 22-year-old with virtually no experience who is already one of the best pitchers in the league. By 2030, Skenes will be entering his prime, and should be considered by anyone as the best pitcher in the world.