Paul Skenes will not be traded by the deadline. You can put house money on that, as the Pirates ace is under contract through 2030. The Pirates aren't inclined to trade a player who is under contract and puts butts in seats. Right now, Skenes is about the only consistent draw the Pirates have, minus Oneil Cruz. However, that hasn't stopped fans and pundits alike from wondering which team – if any – could afford to trade for Skenes. Enter Jim Bowden, who believes the Chicago Cubs might have what it takes.
The Cubs starting rotation could use some work, there is little doubt about that. A season-ending injury to Justin Steele will have Chicago searching for starting pitching upgrades around the deadline, assuming they are still in the running for the NL Central.
Bowden is a former GM himself, so he knows how unlikely it is that Skenes is on the block come late July. the Pirates are horrible, don't get me wrong, but trading a young ace with five years of control is a death sentence in more ways than one. That is why the following trade package pitched by Bowden himself is incredibly unlikely.
The question isn't whether this trade is realistic, but reasonable. I can safely report that both teams would hang up the phone almost immediately.
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Pirates and Cubs absolutely wouldn't make this Paul Skenes trade
From the Pirates perspective, there is no amount of value to make up for losing Skenes. Yes, this Cubs trade package includes several players, including Horton and Shaw, who could start right away in Pittsburgh. However, why in the world would the Pirates let Ben Cherington make such a deal when he's on the hot seat? Dealing with Skenes is the job of the next Pirates general manager, whoever that may be.
As for the Cubs, as talented as Skenes may be, trading away the vast majority of their farm system for one player isn't a ticket to winning long term. The Cubs need pitching – and perhaps an ace – but trading this much talent for a starting pitcher who plays every fifth day is a risk they don't need to take. Chicago as currently assembled is a playoff team. Trading what could be four future MLB starters for Skenes is the work of a desperate team aging out of its competitive window. The Cubs are not that – or at least Jed Hoyer doesn't think so.
None of these players has the potential to be the next Skenes. However, Skenes is also a starting pitcher, and those tend to be injury prone as the years go by – especially when they throw as hard as he does.
It's much of the reason why a Skenes trade should be a non-starter for any contender, at least right now.