The New York Mets made a sizable splash when they inked the prize of the offseason in Juan Soto to an astronomical deal. Soto’s on-base percentages have never strayed below .401, making him one of the all-time leaders in that stat so far in his career. This, along with his massive power, have the ability to transform any lineup.
Along with their new star, the team around Soto is also no laggard by any means. The Mets tied the Braves to finish second in the NL East last season and made it to the NLCS before being eliminated by the Dodgers. The team itself is fairly similar to the one that took the field in 2024 with a few exceptions. Both Luis Severino and Jose Quintana, who were pivotal anchors in the Mets’ rotation, are now gone. This will likely be offset, at least partially, by the return of ace Kodai Senga, who was limited to just one game last season.
The signing of Soto along with the recent memory of an NLCS run were enough to make Mets fans believe a World Series was within grasp. But according to one former GM, these notions might be just a little misguided.
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Former GM Jim Bowden believes the Mets will finish third in the NL East, securing a wild card spot
In a recent article from the Athletic ($), former GM Jim Bowden predicted the Mets will land a third-place finish while cracking the wild card berth. Bowden gives the Mets a grade of "A-" on their offseason moves, but cites their rotation as a key concern going into the season. He had this to write about the Mets’ offseason grade:
“… I couldn’t get them to an “A” because they needed to do more to improve the top of the rotation, and I don’t think they have enough bulk innings. Too many higher-risk signings like Frankie Montas and [Clay] Holmes.”
Bowden also believes the East will come down to how the Mets’ pitching staff compares to that of the Braves and Phillies. To Bowden’s point, Montas has already fallen on the IL. Beyond Senga, the Mets rotation carries significant risk. The re-signing of Sean Manaea, while a good decision, is still questionable because of his lack of a track record.
As for the competition, the Braves maintain a stellar pitching staff and have plenty of offensive firepower returning from the IL along with key arms such as Spencer Strider. This comes in addition to signing Jurickson Profar. The Phillies, who won the NL East by six games last season, added Jesus Luzardo and Jordan Romano to shore up the weaknesses in their otherwise solid pitching staff.
If any team can top their projections, the Mets appear as though they have the best shot. But even if the Mets simply meet Bowden’s expectations, there is still a path to the World Series via the wild card. The Mets made it to the NLCS last season the same way, and it wouldn’t be the first time a wild card team won the World Series, assuming the Mets rise to the occasion.