Four bold predictions for Browns vs. Steelers in Week 12

The second half of the Pittsburgh Steelers' schedule is a gauntlet, but the first of their two matchups against Cleveland should serve as a brief respite. Pittsburgh's second divisional matchup of the season couldn't be more different than their first.

The Browns season has been stuck in a downward spiral since Week 1. The league got it backward, placing the Browns and Steelers on Thursday night while relegating last week’s rivalry game to the early window on CBS. It’s too late to change that now. 

These are organizations heading in completely different directions. The 2-8 Browns are mirror versions of the 8-2 Steelers. Cleveland is poised to blow things up in the offseason. Pittsburgh is loading up for a run deep into January.

A win Sunday would secure a record-tying 20th consecutive playoff berth for the Steelers organization. Kevin Stefanski is the latest Browns head coach on the hot seat, joining a slew of ex-head coaches on that spit rotisserie. Mike Tomlin is approaching his 18th winning season and a third decade of fortifying his Hall of Fame resume.

Cleveland is staring at long odds, but beyond the final scoreboard, here are predictions for how Thursday Night Football will pan out.

1. Myles Garrett will sack Russell Wilson at least once

You take the good with the bad when it comes to Russell Wilson. One of the negatives is that he can run pretzels around the pocket trying to engineer big plays. After last week’s red zone debacle, the knives are out for Wilson again.

Cleveland has profoundly sharper edges. Myles Garrett leads the Browns with seven sacks, unfortunately, the pass rush has fallen off dramatically from a year ago and their offense registers the NFL’s second-fewest points per game.

As great as Wilson has been, he’s still shown a propensity for holding the ball too long. Over his last three games, he’s been sacked 11 times. Wilson isn’t as elusive as he was a decade ago even if he still moves better than most 36-year-old quarterbacks. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year will get a few licks in. 

As long as Wilson doesn’t feel compelled to test the limits and take the occasional shot downfield, the Steelers should have the fortitude to withstand Wilson’s negative plays as long as he doesn’t turn it over. 

2. Myles Garrett generates more sacks than TJ Watt

TJ Watt and Garrett's sack numbers have both fallen off from their astronomical highs the last two seasons. Watt has made a slew of game-winning plays, but he's struggled to turn pressures into sacks throughout the season. It's all relative. He's generated the fifth-most sacks in the NFL and has been a difference-maker against the run.

The Steelers are more devoted to the run than the Browns have to date. Winston will air it out from the pocket and doesn't have great wheels, which will give Watt a few more clean shots than Garrett will have at Wilson.

3. Nick Chubb has his best performance of the season

Nick Chubb returns to Pittsburgh for the first time since a catastrophic knee injury suffered against Pittsburgh ended his 2023 season.

At his healthiest, Chubb was right up there with Derrick Henry as one of the league’s preeminent contemporary running backs. Despite rushing for a season-high 50 yards in Week 11, he won’t find much open space in this one.

The Steelers have rushed for 432 yards more yards than they’ve allowed this season because their defense is a top-five unit against the run.

Chubb is finally rounding into form, but the season is lost. If Cleveland had any sense, they’d allow him to join a contender next season. The Browns are closer to the top of the draft than they are to the postseason at this point.  He won’t eclipse 100 yards, but he should be in line for a robust output.

4. Pittsburgh wins the turnover battle

Cleveland and Pittsburgh are on polar opposite ends of the turnover differential spectrum. The Steelers have prided themselves on reducing giveaways, turning it over only eight times this season, and produced 19 takeaways, good for a plus-11 team turnover differential. Cleveland is operating in the red, with a negative-5 turnover margin. 

Jameis Winston’s production has been an upgrade over Deshaun Watson, but the last time he played a physical, fundamentally sound defense, he settled back into his old habits, throwing a trio of interceptions against Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers. Winston will be forced to carry the load against a tough Pittsburgh defense. He’s bound to donate a pass or three to the secondary.