While I do not claim to be anything close to an expert on the compensatory draft pick front, I am willing to get my hands dirty to learn a bit more about it. With it being very formulaic in nature, only so many players merit the status of a compensatory pick going to their former teams should they sign elsewhere in NFL free agency. It is about getting something more to counterbalance what goes out.
NFL contract analyst Nick Korte pointed out that with Elijah Moore signing with the Buffalo Bills and J.K. Dobbins signing with the Denver Broncos, there are no more compensatory free agents to be had. This will go a long way in us understanding what teams who are at a talent deficit after NFL free agency could be getting in return in the form of some compensatory picks in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The compensatory picks start coming in at the tail-end of the third round, and continue into each subsequent round until the draft reaches its conclusion. A lot can change between now and the end of next season, but the big compensatory pick winners happen to be the Minnesota Vikings and the Pittsburgh Steelers because they did not choose to backfill losing Sam Darnold and Dan Moore Jr.
Here is social media post from Korte explaining what he thinks each team will get as a compensation.
Now that no more compensatory free agents can be added to the formula w/Elijah Moore & JK Dobbins finally signed, I've taken a detailed update on where the 2026 comp picks stand.
— Nick Korte (@nickkorte) June 17, 2025
If I had to guess as of now, I'd think it'd look something like this. But it's just a guess. pic.twitter.com/u7HbpYi02P
All signs point to the Vikings and Steelers getting compensatory third-round picks for these players.
Why Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers win with compensatory picks
In an attempt not to bore you any more, I will do my best to explain why this is such a big deal for teams like the Steelers and Vikings. Ideally, yes, you would have liked to have seen them sign a player of approximate value to help this year's teams win. I also understand that third-round compensatory picks are as good as it gets in the NFL, as there are no first or second-round compensatory picks.
It all comes down to the perceived value of the players leaving the building. Darnold got big money from the Seattle Seahawks. The same thing applies to Moore signing with the Tennessee Titans. Would I have paid them this much money? No, I would not, as I feel that Darnold benefited from a perfect storm in Minnesota and Moore was not really all that good when he was with the Steelers.
Basically, the Steelers and Vikings are now being positioned to get a day-two pick for somebody else essentially paying first-round money for a guy who is really only a fifth-round player in my estimation. Obviously, it remains to be seen what becomes of Darnold in Seattle and Moore in Nashville, but I feel they have a long way to go to earn the big contracts they are getting from their new NFL franchises.
As for the Steelers and Vikings, they are now in a position to capitalize on other teams' big mistakes.