For a while there, it seemed like Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs might miss out on the College Football Playoff entirely. Georgia Tech dominated the Dawgs for much of Friday night, taking a 27-13 lead with less than six minutes to go in the fourth quarter. The Yellow Jackets seemed to have salted things away with a crucial first down late ... only for quarterback Haynes King to cough up the ball, leading to a tying touchdown and, after eight overtimes, a wild 44-42 Georgia win.
Now, the Dawgs are set for a rematch with Texas in the SEC Championship Game, secure in the knowledge that even a loss to the Horns wouldn't hurt them enough to drop them out of the final CFP field. Georgia fans certainly aren't overlooking the chance to capture another conference title (and earn a first-round bye come playoff time), but that doesn't mean we can't take a peek ahead while we wait. Smart's team is playoff-bound, but what matchups might they face once they get there? What would the ideal path another national title look like? Let's break it down.
Tennessee is Georgia's ideal matchup in the first round of the College Football Playoff
Obviously Georgia would much rather beat Texas in Atlanta and not have to worry about a first-round playoff game at all. But if they lose the rematch with the Horns, they could very well draw a home date with Tennessee, and that would hardly keep Smart and Co. up at night.
If Georgia doesn't win the SEC, they'll likely be behind the first four auto bids in addition to Penn State (unlikely to be punished even with a Big Ten title game loss to Oregon) and one-loss Notre Dame. From there, the question is whether the committee will put Georgia above or behind Ohio State, but despite the shocking loss to Michigan on Saturday, the Buckeyes still have two wins over playoff teams in Penn State and Indiana without the same number of close calls that the Dawgs have on their resume.
Which is all well and good, because if Georgia falls to the eighth seed, they could find themselves in an 8-9 matchup against a Vols team that they physically manhandled just a few weeks ago. Josh Heupel hasn't been able to figure out Smart's defense yet in his tenure in Knoxville, and for as good as Tennessee's defense is, Nico Iamaleava didn't seem to have any answers in the first matchup.
Miami is Georgia's ideal matchup in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals
But let's say that Georgia does beat Texas again. In that case, the Dawgs likely leap all the way to the second seed as the champion of the country's toughest conference. And from there, the ideal matchup is obvious: The Indiana Hoosiers could very well wind up in the 7-10 game, putting them in Georgia's section of the bracket.
Without relitigating an entire month's worth of debate here, suffice to say that IU didn't prove itself as a national title contender in its first and only real test, a 38-15 loss to Ohio State earlier this month. The Hoosiers offensive line got physically manhandled, which doesn't bode well for a matchup with the Dawgs, and they don't seem to have the sort of running game that would cause Georgia fits.
Indiana is hardly a pushover. But among the other available options — Ohio State or Notre Dame could wind up at No. 7, and SMU or Miami could wind up as the 10 seed — the Hoosiers would seem to have the lowest ceiling, and they did not match up very well in the trenches against the two opponents on its schedule (OSU and Michigan) who most closely approximate Georgia.
Georgia wouldn't be scared of seeing Boise State in the College Football Playoff semifinals
A win over Indiana would put Georgia in the semis, where they could meet Boise State, who right now is on track to earn the third seed if the Broncos can take care of business against UNLV in the Mountain West title game. With all due respect to Ashton Jeanty, who showed against Oregon earlier this season just what he can do against even elite competition, this Boise team has been flirting with disaster for a while now, and there's plenty of evidence that they're right for the picking come playoff time.
The Broncos eased past Oregon State this week, but other than that, it's been tough sledding of late: Three of Boise's five games before their win over the Beavers were decided by one score, and they trailed in the second half against San Jose State before pulling away for a misleading 42-21 victory. Jeanty is a force to be reckoned with, and you couldn't blame Dawgs fans who look at Georgia's run defense recently and don't feel great about the prospect of seeing the best running back in the country. But the Broncos have struggled to come up with unique ways to get Jeanty involved, and their defense and passing game don't pass the smell test.
Could Georgia see Penn State in the College Football Playoff title game?
This certainly isn't the most likely scenario, with Oregon cruising into the Big Ten title game undefeated and on track for the top overall seed in the playoff. But what if, say, Tennessee wins the 8-9 game against Ohio State (hardly far-fetched based on how the Buckeyes looked Saturday)? It's not hard to see James Pearce and Co. harassing Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks offense the way no one else has been able to this season.
In this scenario, the Vols pull the upset and advance to the semifinals, where they lose a close game against fifth-seeded Penn State. Suddenly, the only thing standing between Georgia and another national title is a Nittany Lions team that put up just 14 points at home against Ohio State in its one real test so far this season. Drew Allar doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, and while the Penn State defense is rock-solid, Georgia would have to like its chances here.