Fansided

Where would Georgia be in CFP bracket if they lost to Texas in SEC Championship Game?

The latest College Football Playoff rankings almost certainly guarantee Georgia will be getting in.

By John Buhler

Dylan Fairchild, Carson Beck, Georgia Bulldogs
Dylan Fairchild, Carson Beck, Georgia Bulldogs / Todd Kirkland/GettyImages
facebooktwitterreddit

At 10-2 on the year, the Georgia Bulldogs are essentially a lock to make the College Football Playoff. They are one of eight teams with a 99-percent chance or better of making it in, according to ESPN's Football Power Index. The Dawgs were ranked No. 5 in the penultimate playoff rankings, seeded No. 7 and have a 99.9-percent chance to make it in. Is there any way they do not get in now?

Let me put it this way. According to FPI, Georgia has less of a chance to miss the playoff at 0.1 percent than South Carolina does to make it in at 0.4 percent. For the sake of simplicity, Georgia is as comfortably in as Indiana, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee and Texas. Alabama, Arizona State, Boise State, Clemson, Iowa State Miami, SMU and UNLV are very much alive.

Here are the latest College Football Playoff rankings heading into conference championship week.

  1. Oregon Ducks (12-0)
  2. Texas Longhorns (11-1)
  3. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1)
  4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1)
  5. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2)
  6. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)
  7. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2)
  8. SMU Mustangs (11-1)
  9. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1)
  10. Boise State Broncos (11-1)
  11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)
  12. Miami Hurricanes (10-2)
  13. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)
  14. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3)
  15. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2)
  16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2)
  17. Clemson Tigers (9-3)
  18. BYU Cougars (10-2)
  19. Missouri Tigers (9-3)
  20. UNLV Rebels (10-2)
  21. Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3)
  22. Syracuse Orange (9-3)
  23. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3)
  24. Army Black Knights (10-1)
  25. Memphis Tigers (10-2)

This is what the College Football Playoff 12-team bracket would look like heading into the final week.

  1. Oregon Ducks (12-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
  2. Texas Longhorns (11-1) (Projected SEC champion)
  3. SMU Mustangs (11-1) (Projected ACC champion)
  4. Boise State Broncos (11-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
  5. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
  6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (Projected national independent at-large)
  7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) (Projected SEC runner-up)
  8. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
  9. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (Projected SEC at-large)
  10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
  11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (Projected SEC at-large)
  12. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) (Projected Big 12 champion)

These would be the first four teams out of the College Football Playoff after the penultimate rankings.

  • 13. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) (ACC)
  • 14. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) (SEC)
  • 15. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) (SEC)
  • 16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) (Projected Big 12 runner-up)

Now that we have all the information, let's take a look at what could happen if Georgia loses to Texas.

How far will Georgia fall in College Football Playoff with a loss to Texas?

Right now, Georgia, Oregon, Penn State and Texas will not be kicked out of the 12-team playoff field with a conference championship loss. While Arizona State, Clemson, Iowa State and UNLV will be eliminated with a title bout loss, Boise State probably will too and potentially SMU as well, that leaves Alabama and Miami on the outside looking in for chaos to help them get in as a the final at-large team.

Assuming chalk, which includes a Georgia loss to Texas in a rematch, this may be the playoff bracket.

  1. Oregon Ducks (13-0) (Big Ten champion)
  2. Texas Longhorns (12-1) (SEC champion)
  3. SMU Mustangs (12-1) (ACC champion)
  4. Boise State Broncos (12-1) (Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
  5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (National independent at-large)
  6. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Big Ten at-large)
  7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) (SEC runner-up)
  8. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) (Big Ten runner-up)
  9. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (SEC at-large)
  10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Big Ten at-large)
  11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (SEC at-large)
  12. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) (Big 12 champion)

There is a decent chance Georgia still ends up being seeded No. 7 anyway. The loss may knock them behind Ohio State, but Penn State would fall behind Georgia because the Nittany Lions do not have a quality win, only two quality losses. Georgia would have three quality wins, but three quality losses. The other big thing is the playoff will want to prevent a rematch in the same venue in the first round.

This is why I highly doubt Georgia will host Tennessee in the first round, nor do I think Ohio State would host Indiana. If you respect the head-to-head victories Georgia has over Tennessee and the ones Ohio State has over Penn State and Indiana, you could end up with a playoff bracket like this. I would say that there is a chance a three-loss Georgia team drops down to No. 10, but that is about it.

The Selection Committee is not going to put a three-loss SEC runner-up Georgia up for debate for the last spot in. They will do that to SMU should the Mustangs lose to Clemson, opening it up for debate for the last spot in to be decided between the SMU, Alabama and Miami. Barring something unforeseen, it is getting really hard for me to visualize a situation where Miami even has a shot in now.

A win over Texas gets Georgia the No. 2 seed, while a loss has the Dawgs firmly in the No. 7-10 range.

Next. What needs to happen for SMU to make College Football Playoff. What needs to happen for SMU to make College Football Playoff. dark

feed

Home/College Football