Georgia CFP scenarios: Bracket, seed and matchup prediction win or lose the SEC Championship

Georgia is one of nine College Football Playoff locks after last night's Mountain West Championship Game. The Boise State Broncos punched their ticket after beating UNLV for the second time this year. They are 100 percent in now, joining the likes of Georgia, Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Penn State, Tennessee and Texas as teams with 99 percent or better odds.

ESPN's Football Power Index has 15 teams technically alive to make the playoff if we include Miami at 0.4 percent. Georgia is less likely to miss the playoff at 0.1 percent than it is for Miami to make it in. Essentially, the last three spots in will go to the Big 12 champion between Arizona State and Iowa State, as well as Alabama, Clemson and SMU, depending on what happens in the ACC Championship.

These are the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings heading into Championship Saturday.

1. Oregon Ducks (12-0)
2. Texas Longhorns (11-1)
3. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1)
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1)
5. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2)
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)
7. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2)
8. SMU Mustangs (11-1)
9. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1)
10. Boise State Broncos (11-1)
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)
12. Miami Hurricanes (10-2)
13. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)
14. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3)
15. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2)
16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2)
17. Clemson Tigers (9-3)
18. BYU Cougars (10-2)
19. Missouri Tigers (9-3)
20. UNLV Rebels (10-2)
21. Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3)
22. Syracuse Orange (9-3)
23. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3)
24. Army Black Knights (10-1)
25. Memphis Tigers (10-2)

After Tuesday night's rankings, here is what the projected 12-team playoff field could really look like.

1. Oregon Ducks (12-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
2. Texas Longhorns (11-1) (Projected SEC champion)
3. SMU Mustangs (11-1) (Projected ACC champion)
4. Boise State Broncos (11-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (Projected national independent at-large)
7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) (Projected SEC runner-up)
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
9. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (Projected SEC at-large)
10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (Projected SEC at-large)
12. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) (Projected Big 12 champion)

And for a bit more clarity, these would be the first four teams out of the playoff field right now.

• 13. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) (ACC)
• 14. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) (SEC)
• 15. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) (SEC)
• 16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) (Projected Big 12 runner-up)

Where would Georgia be ranked if Dawgs win the SEC Championship?

If Georgia wins the SEC, the Dawgs would almost certainly be seeded No. 2. They would be ranked ahead of Boise State, the ACC champion, and the Big 12 champion. However, the only way they could end up being the No. 1 seed is if the Selection Committee does not reward Penn State for beating Oregon in the Big 12 champion and they are the No. 2 seed. Since Oregon hasn't lost yet, don't count on it...

Assuming chalk everywhere else, here is what the playoff bracket would look like with a Dawgs win.

1. Oregon Ducks (13-0) (Big Ten champion)
2. Georgia Bulldogs (11-12) (SEC champion)
3. SMU Mustangs (12-1) (ACC champion)
4. Boise State Broncos (12-1) (Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (National independent at-large)
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Big Ten at-large)
7. Texas Longhorns (11-2) (SEC runner-up)
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) (Big Ten runner-up)
9. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (SEC at-large)
10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Big Ten at-large)
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (SEC at-large)
12. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) (Big 12 champion)

In this situation, Georgia would be awaiting the winner of No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 Indiana. In all likelihood, Georgia would be facing Texas for a third time this season. While there is a chance Texas is ranked No. 6, the Selection Committee may not want to have Ohio State at No. 7 to avoid them hosting No. 10 Indiana in a rematch of a game we already saw in Columbus only a few weekends ago.

To me, I think it is nearly impossible to avoid regular-season rematches in the College Football Playoff entirely. This is because Ohio State has already played and beaten Indiana and Penn State, as well as Georgia having played Alabama, Tennessee and Texas already. I do believe that the Selection Committee might monkey with the playoff seeding out of the gate to avoid first-round rematches.

If Georgia were to lose the rematch to Texas in Atlanta, here is where the Dawgs may be ranked.

Where would Georgia be ranked with a SEC Championship loss to Texas?

A loss to Texas in a rematch of the regular season is possible. Georgia may be the more battle-tested team of the two, but Texas has been a bit more steady than the Dawgs this year. In all honesty, they are probably going to meet for a third time this season in the playoff to really microwave this emerging SEC rivalry. Georgia is the underdog in the Dawgs' backyard in Atlanta for this ballgame.

Assuming chalk everywhere else, here is where Georgia would probably be seeded with a loss to Texas.

1. Oregon Ducks (13-0) (Big Ten champion)
2. Texas Longhorns (12-1) (SEC champion)
3. SMU Mustangs (12-1) (ACC champion)
4. Boise State Broncos (12-1) (Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (National independent at-large)
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Big Ten at-large)
7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) (SEC runner-up)
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) (Big Ten runner-up)
9. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (SEC at-large)
10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Big Ten at-large)
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (SEC at-large)
12. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) (Big 12 champion)

As you can see, the Dawgs may not drop in the rankings with a loss to Texas. This is because Penn State would go past them with a loss to Oregon since the Nittany Lions have not beaten anyone of note. I would also say that the Selection Committee would honor the head-to-head win Georgia has over Tennessee to prevent them from falling past the Vols, as would Ohio State beating Penn State.

This feels like the most logical scenario. No. 7 Georgia would probably end up hosting No. 10 Indiana in this machination. Should the Dawgs win that, they would then have to face Texas in a national quarterfinals. It would be their third game against Texas in a calendar year, all of which would not be played Between the Hedges in Athens. You cannot make this up. What a brutal second-round game for UGA!

Now let's take a look at some of the potential first-round matchups that the Dawgs could have here.

Potential CFP first-round matchups for Georgia Bulldogs

If Georgia wins the SEC and gets the No. 2 seed, you are looking at them playing the winner of Texas and Indiana in all likelihood. If we wanted to add a few more possible foes, let's say teams like Ohio State, Penn State and Tennessee are all somewhat possible. Indiana feels pretty locked in at the No. 10 seed, unless Georgia were to somehow fall that far. Outside of Indiana, maybe it could be SMU?

If Georgia loses the SEC, they are probably facing Indiana if they get the No. 7 seed. If they are the No. 8 or No. 9 seed, you are looking at them going up against Ohio State, Penn State and Tennessee. Again, the Dawgs drawing Indiana in the first round seems to be the most likely if Georgia does not win the SEC Championship Game. If they beat Texas again, they may play them in another rematch.

An SEC win probably gets Georgia the No. 2 seed, but a loss probably has them seeded at No. 7 or so.