The San Francisco Giants have been among the most pleasant surprises of the 2025 MLB season so far. Seemingly stuck in neutral after three straight seasons without a playoff berth, the team has instead ignited in its first season with president Buster Posey at the helm, entering Wednesday with a 29-20 record that has them just a game back of the arch rival Los Angeles Dodgers in the very rugged NL West race.
Logan Webb and Robbie Ray have both looked like Cy Young contenders, while breakout seasons from Heliot Ramos and Jung Hoo Lee have helped a makeshift offense tread water. But amid all those good vibes, arguably the biggest name on this roster hasn't exactly pulled his weight: The Giants haven't gotten what they hoped to get from Justin Verlander in his first season by the Bay, and now there are health questions swirling around the 42-year-old.
Verlander labored through his latest start against the rival Athletics, allowing two runs across just four innings of work while walking a whopping five batters. His fastball velocity dipped down into the low 90s, and he looked like a far cry from the pitcher who won a Cy Young Award just three years ago.
The Giants didn't sign Verlander in free agency expecting that version of him to return. But they were expecting slightly more than what they've gotten so far — and if the future Hall of Famer can't find a way to get healthy and effective for the stretch run, he might be the thing that holds the Giants back from a truly special season.
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Giants need Justin Verlander healthy for the stretch run — and beyond
Verlander's 4.33 ERA so far this year is 11 percent below league average, and even that might be the product of some good luck. His WHIP stands at an ugly 1.404, his walk rate is flirting with a career high and his strikeout rate is at a career low; he's simply not a very good pitcher right now, and his 5.07 expected ERA and 4.78 FIP suggest it's only a matter of time before the results start catching up with him.
And now there are health issues to worry about, as there always seem to be with starting pitchers pushing into their 40s. It's not clear exactly what's wrong with Verlander physically right now, or whether he'll be forced to miss any turns in the rotation. But it's worth noting that he's battled ailments in each of the last two seasons — it's possible that his body just can't cash the checks like it used to.
Which is a problem for the Giants moving forward. Again, San Francisco didn't sign him expecting ace-level production, or anything particularly close to it. But if Verlander can't lock down a spot behind Webb and Ray in the rotation, that could leave the team awfully vulnerable come October. Landen Roupp and Hayden Birdsong have both flashed promise this season, and it's always possible that Jordan Hicks takes his demotion to the bullpen in stride and figures things out. But that's a lot of ifs, and a lot of unproven arms who have never handled the hothouse of a pennant race before.
Verlander has, and the team was surely hoping that he'd be able to stabilize their postseason rotation. If this is just who he is now, though, then suddenly things become a lot more fragile, and just getting to the playoffs at all becomes an arduous task.