Grade the take: Would Corbin Burnes make the Giants a true NL Wild Card threat?

Recent reports have drawn attention to the Bay Area where new president of baseball operations Buster Posey is swinging for the fences in an attempt to sign the top starter on the market in Corbin Burnes. If the San Francisco Giants are successful in bringing a new ace to the bay, they will go into 2025 with a solid 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation featuring Burnes and Logan Webb.

The Giants have made waves the past couple of years, nabbing Jorge Soler, Jung Hoo Lee, and Blake Snell among others. So far, nothing has worked which is why Farhan Zaidi is now gone. More recently, they signed Willy Adames to usher in the new Buster Posey era with a bang and hopefully add some much-needed pop to a Giants’ lineup that only hit 177 home runs last season (tied for 16th in the majors). The prospect of adding Burnes prompted insider Jon Heyman to make this bold assertion in the New York Post:

“The Giants and Blue Jays are among a half-dozen teams showing significant interest in star right-hander Corbin Burnes, and new Giants baseball president Buster Posey met late Tuesday with Burnes’ agent, Scott Boras … While the Giants have a decent rotation with a bona fide ace in Logan Webb, Burnes would make them a wild-card threat in an impossible division.”

Wild Card threat? The Giants? Could Heyman be onto something here? Let’s go over some facts and numbers that could provide some valuable insight on the subject.

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Would the Giants be a Wild Card threat if they signed Corbin Burnes?

To start, the Giants finished 2024 with an 80-82 record placing them fourth in the NL West. At nine games out of the Wild Card, they barely had a shot. This number will serve as our benchmark. With Willy Adames hitting behind Heliot Ramos and LaMonte Wade Jr, the Giants will have a better chance at scoring runs. But there are some notable differences and similarities to discuss.

San Francisco was home to Blake Snell last year and the Giants still came up short. But there are two main differences between what Snell was last season and what Burnes could be next season. Snell was injured for over a month and he struggled mightily before getting injured. If Burnes has a repeat season, he would definitely improve the Giants’ standing among the other NL contenders much more so than Snell did last season.

But there is also another notable subtraction from the roster in Michael Conforto, who like Snell, is also headed to Los Angeles. Conforto was third on the team in home runs and scoring RBIs. While Adames is set to be their top offensive player next season, is he good enough to get the Giants to the Wild Card?

There is one more player we haven’t yet discussed and that is Jung Hoo Lee. Lee was injured for most of the year but provided some fairly decent numbers for a first season after arriving from South Korea. That said, would adding Burnes make them a true Wild Card threat?

The NL was a boiling pot last season with the D-Backs matching the Braves and Mets in wins and losses but still being denied postseason entry. The Cubs and Cardinals also managed to finish ahead of the Giants, but with the Cardinal’s roster supposedly being torn down and with the D-Backs losing Christian Walker, this offers the Giants a window. However, the Cubs just added Kyle Tucker. The NL is shaping up to be very competitive. Could Jon Heyman be right?

Should the Giants nab Burnes, this would certainly boost their chances of finishing better than they did last season. The Giants might be in the running for a Wild Card spot, but they would still be far from a lock.

Grade: B