Grade the contract: Mets hope to strike gold again with surprise Frankie Montas signing

In a season in which expectations were low, the New York Mets made a run to the NLCS. They were overmatched by the eventual World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers, but getting as far as they did was impressive nonetheless.

Obviously, Francisco Lindor's MVP-caliber play and Mark Vientos' emergence played huge roles in New York's success, but the team's starting rotation was a huge reason why they went as far as they did. Mets starters were tied with the San Diego Padres for 12th in the majors in ERA, which, considering the fact that their ace — Kodai Senga - made one start all regular season long, is impressive.

Gambles that the Mets took over the offseason with guys like Sean Manaea and Luis Severino paid off more than they could've imagined. Knowing this, David Stearns elected to kick off his 2024 free agency by making a similar gamble, inking Frankie Montas to a two-year deal worth $34 million according to Jeff Passan. Jon Heyman of the NY Post noted that there's an opt-out after the first year, making it awfully similar to the two-year deal worth $28 million that Manaea signed with New York last offseason.

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Mets first major offseason move looks awfully familiar

On the surface, giving a pitcher who had a 4.84 ERA last season $17 million annually on a multi-year deal isn't a great look. However, it isn't hard to see why the Mets did this.

First of all, innings are as valuable as they've ever been. Montas threw 150.2 innings last season for the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers, and he has thrown at least 144 innings in three of the last four seasons. If he can pitch like a back-end starter and give the Mets 140+ innings, they'll be relatively happy with this deal.

Second, this looks awfully familiar to the deals Manaea and Severino signed. Manaea had a 4.47 ERA the season prior to joining the Mets, and only 10 of his 37 appearances were starts. He wound up receiving Cy Young votes this season. Severino had a 6.65 ERA for the New York Yankees in 2023, and he hadn't made 20 starts in a season since 2018. He managed to make 31 starts for the Mets and was a key cog in their rotation behind Manaea.

Montas, like Severino and Manaea, wasn't great prior to joining the Mets, but he did receive Cy Young votes in 2021 and was pitching extremely well in the first half of 2022 before being traded to the Yankees. Severino and Manaea had both flashed potential in the past but struggled prior to joining the Mets, much like Montas.

Will this work? That remains to be seen, but David Stearns deserves the benefit of the doubt following last season's successes. The contract might be a bit rich, but Nick Pivetta - a pitcher who has never finished any of his eight seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA - just rejected the qualifying offer. Starting pitching is absurdly expensive.

At worst, the Mets got themselves a right-hander who is a decent bet to give them 140 or more innings. At his best, he can be a starter who gives them high-end production much like he did just three years ago and like Manaea and Severino did.

It would've been nice to see the Mets start to rebuild their rotation with a frontline arm, and this isn't Juan Soto, but this deal doesn't prevent them from addressing the top of their rotation or signing Soto at all. It's hard to complain about a deal like this one, especially after last offseason's successes.

Grade: B