Has Josh Allen locked up the NFL MVP?

It's not often that a player can improve his NFL MVP odds in a loss, but that's exactly what Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen did this past Sunday in a 44-42 shootout defeat to the Los Angeles Rams.

One week after making NFL history against the San Francisco 49ers by becoming the first player ever to record a passing touchdown, a rushing touchdown, and a receiving touchdown in the same game, Allen made more history against the Rams by becoming the first ever to notch three passing scores and three rushing scores in a single contest.

In his first six seasons in Buffalo, the No. 7 overall pick from the 2018 draft has already finished in the top five in the MVP voting on three occasions. He was the runner-up in 2020, losing to Aaron Rodgers, finished third in 2022 behind Jalen Hurts and winner Patrick Mahomes, and came in fifth a season ago behind Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Dak Prescott, and Lamar Jackson.

But while Allen has been in the race before, he's never been the frontrunner this late in the year. But heading into the final four weeks of this 2024 regular season, he's undoubtedly in that position. While two other quarterbacks still have an outside shot, the biggest threat to keeping Allen from becoming only the third NFL MVP in Bills history is a running back.

And you know who we're talking about here.

Saquon Barkley is the only real threat to Josh Allen in the NFL MVP race

The only other two quarterbacks in the race at this point are two-time winner and reigning MVP Lamar Jackson, who's having another strong season with the Baltimore Ravens, and Jared Goff, who has the Detroit Lions sitting atop the NFC standings at 12-1.

As you can see, both have better overall numbers than Allen. That said, however, neither seems to be in legitimate contention, at least not as far as betting odds are concerned.

Heading into the Bills' Week 15 matchup with the Lions, Allen is the prohibitive favorite at DraftKings at -400. Goff and Jackson, meanwhile, are tied for the third-shortest odds at +1000. Betting odds aren't always an indicator of how this race goes, but those figures are quite telling.

The biggest threat to Allen, of course, is Saquon Barkley, who's having a phenomenal first season with the Philadelphia Eagles.

With his 124-yard effort against the Carolina Panthers this past weekend, the former Giant is now the Eagles' all-time single-season rushing leader with 1,623 yards, surpassing the 1,607-yard campaign from LeSean McCoy in 2013.

But Barkley has bigger fish to fry than that, as he's on pace to break Eric Dickerson's all-time single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards. If he maintains his season average of 124.8 yards per game over the final four weeks, he'll end the year with 2,122 yards.

And if that happens, Barkley could very well become the first non-quarterback to win NFL MVP since Adrian Peterson did so for the Minnesota Vikings in 2012. For now, though, he's still behind Allen in the betting odds by a significant margin, sitting in solo second at +450.

This race isn't over just yet, but Allen has a commanding lead heading into the final four weeks and seems destined to join O.J. Simpson (1973) and Thurman Thomas (1991) as the only Bills to win Most Valuable Player.